Softs Report 04/09/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday in a further response to the Trump tariffs that threaten to greatly increase the costs of imports from China and Vietnam among other things. Vietnam has tried to negotiate the tariffs but China is not interested in negotiations. Both are major importers of US Cotton and sell goods made with that Cotton back to the US, so that trade could be lost. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week to help ease drought concerns and potential supply problems.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.44 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 60.80, 60.00, and 58.80 May, with resistance of 66.20, 67.10 and 67.80 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher as the Trump tariff proposals should have supported FCOJ for domestic consumption and as many countries have reached out to the White House trying to negotiate. Trends turned mixd for the short term yesterday. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 204.00, 200.00, and 194.00 May, with resistance at 244.00, 269.00, and 289.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed mixed to lower yesterday in response a lack of news on the Trumpp tariffs. The tariffs are threatening to bring a recession or depression to the world economies, but at least some countries are now trying to negotiate with the White House to prevent a collapse in the world economy. Coffee is being tariffed even though the US does not produce any except for a small amount grown in Hawaii. Vietnam products are being tariffed to a significant degree. The lack of offers from Brazil continue with prices dropping. The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 308.93 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 340.00, 335.00, and 329.00 May, and resistance is at 365.00, 372.00 and 394.00 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4740 4690, and 4550 May, with resistance at 5080, 5170, and 5290 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower on follow through selling as the Trump tariffs are causing many analysts to look for a worldwide recession or depression. News that at least some countries ere trying to reach out and negotiate with the White House did not help prices in Sugar much. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year. Indian production is expected to be a disappointment this year. Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are still around. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1820, 1790, and 1760 May and resistance is at 1870, 1910, and 2010 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 523.00, 513.00, and 501.00 May, with resistance at 540.00, 555.00, and 567.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday on fears that the world was entering a recession or depression due to the Trump tariff moves of last week. Many countries are trying to negotiate with the US but this has not changed the trajectory of the softs markets. Trends are down, and demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7640, 7520, and 7400 May, with resistance at 8590, 8890, and 9340 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5580, 5460, and 5320 May, with resistance at 6210, 6440, and 6820 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322