Grains Report 04/09/2025

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. 2024-25 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2023-2024
Corn 1,506 1,405-1,605 1,540 1,763
Soybeans 381 320-413 380 342
Wheat 822 795-854 819 696
****
World 2024-25 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
Average Range USDA March USDA 2023-24
Corn 288.0 285.0-290.0 288.9 314.0
Soybeans 122.0 121.0-124.0 121.4 112.6
Wheat 260.8 259.8-262.0 260.1 269.5
****
2024-25 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2023-24
Corn 126.1 124.0-129.7 126.0 119.0
Soybeans 168.9 167.5-170.0 169.0 153.0
2024-25 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2023-24
Corn 49.3 48.0-51.0 50.0 51.0
Soybeans 48.7 47.5-49.5 49.0 48.2

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher again yesterday as speculators still hold short positions and as many countries have tried to start negotiations on the tariff rates according to the White House. The tariffs will cost producers more for inputs and should damage upside price potential. Dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea regions are still the main feature but rains were seen in West Texas last week. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 521, 518, and 512 May, with resistance at 546, 553, and 563 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 546, 542, and 536 May, with resistance at 574, 583, and 598 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 576, 570, and 564 May, and resistance is at 610, 626, and 635 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday as the US will negotiate on tariffs with all countries except China. Mexico has been exempted from new tariffs but still must deal with tariffs already imposed on their goods. Prices remain cheap and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1315, 1296, and 1284 May and resistance is at 1365, 1393, and 1409 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in nearby months but lower in new crop months yesterday as the market did not hear any further news about the Trump tariffs. Many countries are asking to negotiate according to the White House. There was more talk that tariffs could damage agricultural exports starting now as Trump imposed a blanket of tariffs on all countries and big tariffs on some countries such as China. Mexico and Canada were excused from this round of tariffs but already have tariffs imposed on them. It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had precipitation lately and eastern and southern areas are too wet. It’s cold now but is expected to turn warmer this weekend. Oats were lower again and the trends are down again.
Overnight News: Spsin bought 240,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 461, 454, and 448 May, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 484 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up. Support is at 323, 317, and 312 May, and resistance is at 338, 346, and 353 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed mixed to higher yesterday as the market got no new information on the new tariffs imposed by President Trump. Soybeans were higher and Soybean Oil was lower. There was increasing talk of new tariffs and the damage they could do to US agriculture and especially Soybeans sales to China and Europe. China retaliated with tariffs of their own of 34% and caused renewed selling on Friday. The Whitee House now says that many countries are trying to negotiate on the tariffs and that news helped support futures yesterday. It is possible for Soybeans to rally at least a little more this week. South American production looks strong, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less. However, the reports of demand have remained solid for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Deferred months were lower as the weather remains too wet to the east and south and too dry to the west. It is cold now but is expected to turn warmer this weekend.
Overnight News Unknown destinations bought 198,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed Support is at 970, 956, and 944 May, and resistance is at 1013, 1020, and 1025 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 293.00, 280.00, and 277.00 May, and resistance is at 297.00, 301.00, and 304.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4440, 4390, and 4270 May, with resistance at 4720, 4850, and 4920 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower today as the outside markets were also lower. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand ideas are weaker. Chart trends are mixed. Canola was higher again yesterday and trends are up again on the daily charts. Canadian goods were exempted from the new round of tariffs but still must deal with the tariffs previously imposed by the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed t up. Support is at 638.00, 624.00, and 609.00 May, with resistance at 652.00, 657.00, and 673.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4140, 4070, and 3910 June, with resistance at 4280, 4340, and 4430 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast Light precipitation. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1070.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
May 1005.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 1005.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 952.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 950.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 960.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1075.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
May 1010.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 1010.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 957.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 955.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 965.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1035.00 -27.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1020.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,600.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 472.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4945)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 349,930 lots, or 1.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 4,075 4,092 4,048 4,074 4,074 4,068 -6 198,947 119,838
Jul-25 4,117 4,123 4,081 4,106 4,099 4,100 1 75,375 94,938
Sep-25 4,130 4,143 4,103 4,125 4,105 4,123 18 62,661 78,643
Nov-25 4,076 4,095 4,062 4,082 4,067 4,079 12 7,242 32,872
Jan-26 4,087 4,102 4,069 4,087 4,070 4,085 15 3,453 5,043
Mar-26 4,097 4,111 4,079 4,097 4,080 4,093 13 2,252 2,158
Corn
Turnover: 1,110,579 lots, or 2.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,288 2,293 2,260 2,268 2,284 2,276 -8 567,172 752,497
Jul-25 2,328 2,336 2,303 2,309 2,326 2,318 -8 375,413 942,830
Sep-25 2,347 2,354 2,330 2,335 2,346 2,342 -4 106,715 252,963
Nov-25 2,287 2,292 2,265 2,274 2,282 2,277 -5 34,837 164,384
Jan-26 2,270 2,279 2,251 2,258 2,266 2,260 -6 19,666 27,510
Mar-26 2,273 2,280 2,256 2,265 2,267 2,266 -1 6,776 11,524
Soymeal
Turnover: 4,320,978 lots, or 13.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,974 2,986 2,920 2,946 2,922 2,957 35 745,874 783,576
Jul-25 2,998 3,008 2,940 2,971 2,942 2,979 37 236,125 443,100
Aug-25 3,148 3,150 3,078 3,104 3,092 3,122 30 45,452 172,993
Sep-25 3,162 3,164 3,091 3,119 3,102 3,133 31 2,980,757 2,416,074
Nov-25 3,186 3,187 3,117 3,143 3,126 3,157 31 68,558 233,278
Dec-25 3,158 3,160 3,105 3,122 3,101 3,139 38 15,092 79,776
Jan-26 3,123 3,129 3,079 3,093 3,071 3,105 34 196,402 332,948
Mar-26 2,985 2,985 2,939 2,952 2,930 2,958 28 32,718 64,661
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,296,066 lots, or 10.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-25 – – – 9,366 9,366 9,366 0 0 12
May-25 8,712 8,778 8,510 8,588 8,754 8,636 -118 850,394 231,001
Jun-25 8,472 8,532 8,234 8,324 8,518 8,358 -160 9,847 6,930
Jul-25 8,334 8,384 8,076 8,172 8,368 8,208 -160 5,797 5,444
Aug-25 8,218 8,264 7,964 8,056 8,250 8,088 -162 436 810
Sep-25 8,130 8,188 7,880 7,978 8,176 8,016 -160 412,853 259,266
Oct-25 8,144 8,144 7,860 7,954 8,156 7,986 -170 103 1,047
Nov-25 8,088 8,088 7,852 7,934 8,128 7,934 -194 42 610
Dec-25 8,066 8,066 7,846 7,976 8,132 7,960 -172 42 186
Jan-26 8,060 8,110 7,826 7,918 8,106 7,940 -166 16,477 38,771
Feb-26 8,036 8,058 7,878 7,886 8,122 7,936 -186 18 814
Mar-26 8,058 8,102 7,838 7,920 8,076 7,946 -130 57 68
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 678,035 lots, or 51.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 7,648 7,686 7,550 7,610 7,662 7,612 -50 179,849 185,937
Jul-25 7,610 7,646 7,500 7,570 7,622 7,562 -60 5,654 14,223
Aug-25 7,654 7,692 7,550 7,614 7,658 7,604 -54 1,139 5,545
Sep-25 7,650 7,668 7,518 7,576 7,644 7,582 -62 463,537 550,270
Nov-25 7,652 7,688 7,532 7,602 7,666 7,606 -60 302 1,886
Dec-25 7,624 7,658 7,530 7,586 7,640 7,580 -60 109 189
Jan-26 7,542 7,598 7,440 7,508 7,564 7,500 -64 27,321 52,539
Mar-26 7,564 7,578 7,444 7,516 7,568 7,510 -58 124 478
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322