Softs Report 04/08/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply higher yesterday in a further response to the Trump tariffs that threaten to greatly increase the costs of imports from China and Vietnam among other things. The US Dollar was lower and there were some signs that negotiations could take place with Vietnam. Both are major importers of US Cotton and sell goods made with that Cotton back to the US, so that trade could be lost. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week to help ease drought concerns and potential supply problems. The price action for the last coule of days implies that the selloff might be about done for now.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 65.25 ct/lb. USDA said that Cotton is now 4% planted, from 5% last year and 6% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 60.80, 60.00, and 58.80 May, with resistance of 66.20, 67.10 and 67.80 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower to limit down yesterday as the selling continued in response to the Trump tariff proposals that should have supported FCOJ for domestic consumption but should also do a lot to reduce export demand as reciprocal tariffs are anticipated by a lot of trade partners. It didn’t because there are fears of a worlwide recession developing. The down trend in prices remains intact. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 206.00, 200.00, and 194.00 May, with resistance at 244.00, 269.00, and 289.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed sharply lower yesterday in response to the Trump tariffs that are threatening to bring a recession or depression to the world economies. Coffee is being tariffed even though the US does not produce any except for a small amount grown in Hawaii. Vietnam products are being tariffed to a significant degreea. The lack of offers from Brazil continue with prices dropping. The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 309.45 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 346.00, 340.00, and 335.00 May, and resistance is at 365.00, 372.00 and 394.00 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4760 4690, and 4550 May, with resistance at 5080, 5170, and 5290 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were was lower in response to the Trump tariffs that are now in effect and are causing many analysts to look for a worldwide recession or depression. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year. Indian production is expected to be a disappointment this year. Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are still around. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1850, 1820, and 1790 May and resistance is at 1910, 1970, and 2010 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 531.00, 523.00, and 513.00 May, with resistance at 549.00, 555.00, and 5w67.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on fears that the world was entering a recession or depression due to the Trump tariff moves of last week. Trends are still generally up in these markets, but demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7810, 7640, and 8520 May, with resistance at 8890, 9340, and 9490 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5840, 5720, and 5600 May, with resistance at 6440, 6820, and 7210 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322