Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., EIA Short Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Daly Speech at 1:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Index from Cox Automotive, which tracks wholesale used vehicle prices decreased 0.7% in March matching the decline seen in February. Compared to a year ago, the index was down just 0.2% from October 2022 to October 2024, the index experienced `annualized declines averaging 8.5% per month. The monthly report noted that March is typically the strongest month for wholesale markets, so it’s normal to see prices rise. However, the seasonal increase fell short of expectations. Used retail demand remained strong in March and Cox anticipated stronger wholesale prices in the coming weeks as the market sorts through the recent tariffs. The average non-seasonal adjusted used car sale price was $19,020, down $3,882 from the May 2022 high, but still $5,200 (38%) above the pre=pandemic January price.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Midwest Forecast Stays Cool into April 22; Heat Favors Plains; Dryness Blankets N America Next Two Weeks:
The Central US forecast is broadly consistent with prior runs, with best performing ensemble model outlooks keeping in place a pattern of dryness into the latter part of the month. This aids row crop seeding across the Central Plains but also implies an expansion of abnormal dryness/drought there. Dryness is also needed across AR and the mid-south following devestating floods. Abnormally cold temps, however, work against early planting progress east of the Mississippi River. Freezing overnight lows will be widespread across the N Plains. The EU model’s max temps forecast on April 12 shows highs in the 80’s & 90’s will be present in TX, OK, KS, CO, and NE. Highs will struggle to reach the mid/upper 50’s in IL eastward. Lasting warmth awaits late April in the Eastern Corn Belt.
CBOT corn futures higher despite chaos in global financial markets. Theres just not much supply in the world. USW export demand stays bright amid competitive prices – and a complete lack of Brazilian offers until July – and so the risk is that the trade & USDA cut US, exporter and global stocks further. Export Inspections in the week ending April 3rd totaled 62 Mil Bu. Weekly shipments must now average only 32 Mil to meet USDA forecast but physical disappearance does not typically begin its seasonal decent until June. Ag Resources (ARC) also notes the Brazilian cash market does seemingly want to attract enlarged exports. Brazilian fob premiums are quoted $.21-$.25/Bhu above US origin in the July-Sep period – the gut slot of the safrinha harvest. July is set to gain on December. Upside in July is pegged at $4.90. Dec struggles to follow amid larger US seeding unless drought stays in place across the Plains & W Midwest. The US crop is 2% planted (mostly in the south) and ius unlikely to surpass 15% complete until late April due to cold.
Don’t Sell the Farm. The Corn & Ethanol Report 04/08/2025
We kickoff the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., EIA Short Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Daly Speech at 1:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Index from Cox Automotive, which tracks wholesale used vehicle prices decreased 0.7% in March matching the decline seen in February. Compared to a year ago, the index was down just 0.2% from October 2022 to October 2024, the index experienced `annualized declines averaging 8.5% per month. The monthly report noted that March is typically the strongest month for wholesale markets, so it’s normal to see prices rise. However, the seasonal increase fell short of expectations. Used retail demand remained strong in March and Cox anticipated stronger wholesale prices in the coming weeks as the market sorts through the recent tariffs. The average non-seasonal adjusted used car sale price was $19,020, down $3,882 from the May 2022 high, but still $5,200 (38%) above the pre=pandemic January price.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Midwest Forecast Stays Cool into April 22; Heat Favors Plains; Dryness Blankets N America Next Two Weeks:
The Central US forecast is broadly consistent with prior runs, with best performing ensemble model outlooks keeping in place a pattern of dryness into the latter part of the month. This aids row crop seeding across the Central Plains but also implies an expansion of abnormal dryness/drought there. Dryness is also needed across AR and the mid-south following devestating floods. Abnormally cold temps, however, work against early planting progress east of the Mississippi River. Freezing overnight lows will be widespread across the N Plains. The EU model’s max temps forecast on April 12 shows highs in the 80’s & 90’s will be present in TX, OK, KS, CO, and NE. Highs will struggle to reach the mid/upper 50’s in IL eastward. Lasting warmth awaits late April in the Eastern Corn Belt.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Rallies , Tests 100-Day Moving Average; Brazilian Market Adds Premium:
CBOT corn futures higher despite chaos in global financial markets. Theres just not much supply in the world. USW export demand stays bright amid competitive prices – and a complete lack of Brazilian offers until July – and so the risk is that the trade & USDA cut US, exporter and global stocks further. Export Inspections in the week ending April 3rd totaled 62 Mil Bu. Weekly shipments must now average only 32 Mil to meet USDA forecast but physical disappearance does not typically begin its seasonal decent until June. Ag Resources (ARC) also notes the Brazilian cash market does seemingly want to attract enlarged exports. Brazilian fob premiums are quoted $.21-$.25/Bhu above US origin in the July-Sep period – the gut slot of the safrinha harvest. July is set to gain on December. Upside in July is pegged at $4.90. Dec struggles to follow amid larger US seeding unless drought stays in place across the Plains & W Midwest. The US crop is 2% planted (mostly in the south) and ius unlikely to surpass 15% complete until late April due to cold.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Daniel Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374