Grains Report 04/07/2025

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed a little higher last week in response to the tariffs that President Trump imposed yesterday afternoon. Speculators were already short and took the initial move lower as a chance to cover some of those positions. The selling returned on Friday as the market assessed the potential damage to the world and US economies and the potential for more lost business. The tariffs will cost producers more for inputs and should damage upside price potential. Dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea regions are still the main feature but rains were seen in West Texas last week. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 521, 518, and 512 May, with resistance at 545, 553, and 563 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 546, 542, and 536 May, with resistance at 574, 583, and 598 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 576, 570, and 564 May, and resistance is at 600, 610, and 626 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 584,203
: Positions :
: 58,640 169,025 205,534 125,172 77,011 150,090 97,384 539,435 548,953: 44,768 35,250
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: 37,330) :
: -912 12,725 21,844 12,774 -3,441 -1,200 5,688 32,507 36,817: 4,823 513
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 28.9 35.2 21.4 13.2 25.7 16.7 92.3 94.0: 7.7 6.0
: Total Traders: 413 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 123 111 131 102 94 46 31 331 312:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 301,903
: Positions :
: 26,817 80,948 73,473 84,338 87,674 95,264 36,816 279,892 278,911: 22,011 22,992
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: 19,878) :
: 8,919 9,593 6,097 4,305 -1,612 -211 5,987 19,109 20,066: 769 -188
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 26.8 24.3 27.9 29.0 31.6 12.2 92.7 92.4: 7.3 7.6
: Total Traders: 250 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 48 66 69 80 73 36 20 205 190:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 1, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 93,122 :
: Positions :
: 46,057 25,071 4,549 1,921 823 13,182 41,862 6,204 4,860 1,174 4,628 :
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 :
: 1,394 -3,239 356 1,313 353 1,105 6,066 505 -439 -296 200 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 49.5 26.9 4.9 2.1 0.9 14.2 45.0 6.7 5.2 1.3 5.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 124 :
: 51 34 7 . 6 12 28 14 7 9 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week, but the losses were moderate and were only partly tied to news that the Trump tariffs are now here and operating. Mexico was exempted from new tariffs but still must deal with tariffs already imposed on their goods. Prices remain cheap and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down. Support is at 1294, 1282, and 1270 May and resistance is at 1341, 1365, and 1393 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 1, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 13,790 :
: Positions :
: 7,401 3,347 0 142 0 342 6,280 4 2,105 677 1,375 :
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 :
: 252 131 0 -85 0 -32 342 -68 -14 -9 186 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.7 24.3 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.5 45.5 0.0 15.3 4.9 10.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 79 :
: 22 18 0 . 0 . 23 . 16 7 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher last week as the market reacted to the announcement of the new Trump tariffs. There was renewed talk that tariffs could damage agricultural exports starting now as Trump imposed a blanket of tariffs on all countries and big tariffs on some countries such as China. Mexico and Canada were excused from this round of tariffs but already have tariffs imposed on them. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. And that news appears to have allowed Corn to hold firm It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had precipitation lately and eastern areas are getting too wet. Oats were lower and the trends are turning down again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 442, 434, and 433 May, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 484 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up. Support is at 338, 333, and 329 May, and resistance is at 362, 371, and 377 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,469,999
: Positions :
: 156,432 196,038 911,748 711,538 977,165 506,024 151,789 2,285,742 2,236,740: 184,257 233,259
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: 123,916) :
: -21,303 4,031 98,460 32,465 1,291 12,424 26,866 122,046 130,648: 1,870 -6,732
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.3 7.9 36.9 28.8 39.6 20.5 6.1 92.5 90.6: 7.5 9.4
: Total Traders: 839 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 141 137 205 387 427 50 26 690 701:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower last week as the market got new11of the new tariffs imposed by President Trump. There was increasing talk of new tariffs and the damage they could do to US agriculture and especially Soybeans sales to China and Europe. China retaliated with tariffs of their own of 34% and caused renewed selling on Friday. It is now possible for Soybeans to make a low and rally at least a little this week. South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The Brazil Soybeans harvest is now estimated to be more than 85% complete.
Overnight News
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down Support is at 956, 944, and 932 May, and resistance is at 991, 998, and 1011 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 280.00, 277.00, and 274.00 May, and resistance is at 292.00, 297.00, and 301.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4390, 4270, and 4150 May, with resistance at 4720, 4850, and 4920 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,064,084
: Positions :
: 68,762 110,902 343,919 371,220 446,028 228,173 89,815 1,012,073 990,664: 52,011 73,420
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: 20,092) :
: -2,757 -15,079 33,440 -20,003 1,268 5,783 4,799 16,464 24,428: 3,628 -4,337
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.5 10.4 32.3 34.9 41.9 21.4 8.4 95.1 93.1: 4.9 6.9
: Total Traders: 584 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 119 142 200 206 227 45 28 486 498:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 656,680
: Positions :
: 61,356 110,641 155,755 234,926 330,636 170,896 30,256 622,934 627,289: 33,746 29,392
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: 20,104) :
: 9,469 -19,549 11,832 -2,233 41,729 -2,671 -12,462 16,398 21,550: 3,706 -1,446
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.3 16.8 23.7 35.8 50.3 26.0 4.6 94.9 95.5: 5.1 4.5
: Total Traders: 342 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 85 103 102 101 42 24 281 260:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 661,628
: Positions :
: 49,437 142,050 178,975 240,223 258,945 135,915 48,917 604,551 628,887: 57,077 32,740
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: 29,952) :
: 1,264 11,927 14,288 6,550 -9 5,544 3,913 27,646 30,119: 2,306 -167
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.5 21.5 27.1 36.3 39.1 20.5 7.4 91.4 95.1: 8.6 4.9
: Total Traders: 352 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 89 95 130 114 37 21 289 272:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower last week in reaction to the Trump tariffs announcement mage Wednesday afternoon that proved bigger than expected. The market closed lower today with the outside markets. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand was improved in March and was weaker than expected for February. Chart trends are mixed. Canola was mixed yesterday as traders reacted to the announcement of the new Trump tariffs on Canadian goods and others in the world. Canadian goods were exempted from the new round of tariffs but still must deal with the tariffs previously imposed by the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 619.00, 607.00, and 600.00 May, with resistance at 645.00, 652.00, and 657.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4290, 4230, and 4140 June, with resistance at 4460, 4550, and 4600 June.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 1, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 15,952 :
: Positions :
: 11,324 6,544 390 1,902 864 400 300 0 1,874 5,182 1,100 :
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 :
: -3,605 -2,200 12 -1,216 -172 -40 -461 0 38 252 -720 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 71.0 41.0 2.4 11.9 5.4 2.5 1.9 0.0 11.7 32.5 6.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 26 :
: 4 7 . 4 . . . 0 5 6 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 1, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 258,693 :
: Positions :
: 164,726 104,892 10,797 8,726 3,275 32,807 101,249 17,993 14,801 8,335 11,990 :
: Changes from: March 25, 2025 :
: 5,219 1,668 -3,066 1,712 864 2,045 2,062 -3,314 2,787 1,260 814 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 63.7 40.5 4.2 3.4 1.3 12.7 39.1 7.0 5.7 3.2 4.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 334 :
: 71 60 4 6 7 30 66 27 76 51 42 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Light rain or snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Apr 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1087.50 -42.50 Unquoted – –
May 1025.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1025.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 965.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 957.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 965.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1092.50 -42.50 Unquoted – –
May 1030.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1030.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 970.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 962.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 970.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1060.00 -45.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1030.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,650.00 -130.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 485.00 -06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4815)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 07
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 323,504 lots, or 13.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 4,100 4,100 3,989 4,027 3,961 4,026 65 195,418 138,596
Jul-25 4,066 4,107 3,998 4,045 3,977 4,041 64 60,546 87,728
Sep-25 4,080 4,119 4,006 4,049 3,992 4,050 58 55,172 71,943
Nov-25 4,050 4,086 3,981 4,006 3,967 4,014 47 6,772 34,701
Jan-26 4,063 4,080 3,988 4,011 3,975 4,020 45 3,651 5,091
Mar-26 4,100 4,100 4,001 4,018 3,983 4,028 45 1,945 1,816
Corn
Turnover: 971,444 lots, or 22.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,290 2,304 2,277 2,283 2,276 2,290 14 547,752 862,038
Jul-25 2,329 2,342 2,317 2,322 2,317 2,330 13 302,481 846,211
Sep-25 2,349 2,365 2,337 2,341 2,337 2,351 14 74,938 233,354
Nov-25 2,290 2,298 2,272 2,276 2,275 2,286 11 31,741 157,940
Jan-26 2,270 2,278 2,253 2,257 2,255 2,268 13 10,165 22,992
Mar-26 2,265 2,281 2,258 2,262 2,259 2,270 11 4,367 11,289
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,611,519 lots, or 10.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,920 2,950 2,871 2,885 2,843 2,903 60 1,049,621 965,560
Jul-25 2,963 2,968 2,889 2,900 2,850 2,917 67 146,057 416,675
Aug-25 3,161 3,161 3,031 3,047 2,983 3,071 88 31,837 171,299
Sep-25 3,100 3,120 3,042 3,056 3,005 3,079 74 2,068,098 2,069,991
Nov-25 3,184 3,184 3,064 3,079 3,034 3,105 71 68,505 231,942
Dec-25 3,117 3,117 3,033 3,061 3,015 3,071 56 9,518 82,364
Jan-26 3,090 3,090 2,994 3,024 2,987 3,037 50 204,882 307,278
Mar-26 2,970 2,970 2,875 2,889 2,877 2,894 17 33,001 53,885
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,205,221 lots, or 10.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-25 – – – 9,366 9,366 9,366 0 0 12
May-25 8,850 8,948 8,692 8,740 9,238 8,800 -438 911,091 291,189
Jun-25 8,638 8,662 8,468 8,504 8,922 8,546 -376 7,078 7,143
Jul-25 8,620 8,620 8,334 8,348 8,762 8,398 -364 4,052 4,207
Aug-25 8,508 8,508 8,224 8,228 8,660 8,312 -348 367 705
Sep-25 8,216 8,332 8,138 8,144 8,596 8,220 -376 271,251 223,118
Oct-25 8,238 8,244 8,108 8,108 8,516 8,186 -330 82 981
Nov-25 8,128 8,200 8,086 8,086 8,526 8,150 -376 74 602
Dec-25 8,166 8,194 8,084 8,084 8,510 8,140 -370 74 151
Jan-26 8,202 8,226 8,058 8,064 8,474 8,136 -338 10,950 27,959
Feb-26 8,250 8,250 8,066 8,066 8,468 8,110 -358 106 810
Mar-26 8,194 8,194 8,066 8,066 8,442 8,102 -340 96 67
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 765,294 lots, or 58.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 7,800 7,800 7,636 7,650 7,954 7,718 -236 350,062 251,012
Jul-25 7,782 7,782 7,586 7,602 7,888 7,662 -226 6,223 14,813
Aug-25 7,830 7,830 7,628 7,646 7,950 7,706 -244 1,987 5,986
Sep-25 7,798 7,798 7,608 7,620 7,942 7,688 -254 387,990 497,348
Nov-25 7,860 7,860 7,636 7,650 7,968 7,726 -242 217 1,845
Dec-25 7,678 7,736 7,628 7,630 7,908 7,676 -232 66 117
Jan-26 7,834 7,834 7,546 7,556 7,868 7,618 -250 18,506 37,712
Mar-26 7,780 7,780 7,556 7,556 7,832 7,614 -218 243 394
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322