Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Challenger Job Cuts at 6:00 A.M., US Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Final & S&P Global Services PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Services PMI, ISM Services Business Activity, ISM Services Employment, ISM Services New Orders, and ISM Services Prices at 9:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech at 11:30 A.M., Fed Cook Speech at 1:30 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
ADP released Wednesday’s private payroll data for March. Private businesses added 155,000 US workers during the month, beating expectations of 105,000 and surpassing an upwardly revised 84,000 jobs in February. The services sector added 132,000 jobs: 57,000 jobs from the professional/business services sector, 38,000 from financial activities, 17,000 leisure/hospitality, 12,00 jobs in education/health services, and 3,000 information jobs, while trade/transportation/utilities lost 6,000 jobs. The goods-producing sector added 24,000, with 21,000in manufacturing and 6,000 in construction, while the natural resources/mining sector lost 3,000 jobs. US job growth will be critical following yesterday’s tariff announcement. The EU, Canada, and China plan to retaliate with their tariffs on US products. It will not be a gamechanger of US imports that are already being tax and tariff on the US and the US charging zero in tariffs. This is the end of a trade war not a beginning. In the short run, there could be sizable US economic adjustment period ahead and corporate profits squeezed, but one thing is for sure there will be negotiating talks.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Severe Weather Warnings Are Still in Effect in AR, TN, KY, Oh, and States Eastward; US Forecast Drier After April 7th; Cold Lingers in Great Lakes/Midwest:
The central US forecast has changed little from previous runs. Extremes are set to continue into the second half of April. Additional, soaking/flooding rainfall of 3-900” favors AR, MO, TN, KY, and the entire Midwest. This follows 48-hour accumulation of .80-1.80” east of the Mississippi River. Flood concerns are centered on southern IL, IN, KY, AR & TN, and Ag Resources (ARC) doubts fieldwork resumes until the second half of the month. 6-15 day forecasts are completely dry, which along with warming temps in the Plains & far Midwest allows normal seeding dates. It’s the Great Lakes & E Midwest where overnight lows stay in the 30’s/40’s into April16th. There is no yield drag on corn/soybean unless crops are planted after May 15th. Concern today is limited to drought intensification across the Plains and the need to rush seed in the ground in the southern Midwest. Note corn seeding in AR is typically 50% complete by April 20th. Corn seeding in TN/KY on average reaches 50% complete May 1-5.
South American Weather Pattern Discussion
Brazilian Monsoon Extends into Mis-April; Regional Dryness Persists:
The Brazilian forecast into mid-month is viewed as benign. Widespread dryness in Argentina facilitates corn and northern Brazil to meet safrinha corn’s mid-season moisture demands. However, risk of a sputtering monsoon remains remains in place, and drought is emerging in key areas of Mato Grosso, Parana & Sao Paulo. Brazilian subsoil moisture is overall a concern. Normal rainfall persists in Mato Grosso nearby. Elsewhere, 10-day accumulations of 2’ or more will be scattered/regional in nature. Concern today is centered on Mato Grosso do Sul & Parana, where modest net soil loss is probable. Model guidance remains consistent in forecasting in forecasting a drier trend across most of Brazil in the last half of April.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Corrects; US Implements Blanket Reciprocal Tariffs; Argentine Basis Moves Lower as Harvest Advances:
Corn futures ended slightly weaker in preparation for the US administration’s tariff policy, which, after yesterday’s close, was confirmed on all imported goods, upward of 25% on automobiles, and 34% on goods sourced from China. The prior China tariffs were 20%, so the actual China tariff rate is 54%. However, Mexico and Canada were excluded from the countries included in reciprocal tariffs. This allows Mexico’s sizable demand for US corn to continue unabated, and suggests July CBOT is undervalued. Note also the arrival of Argentine corn into the world market wont occur until June. Ag Resources (ARC) forecast is maintained the July-Dec spread widens 20-30 cents prior to expiration. The market’s sensitivity to N Hemisphere weather will be heightened amid NASS stocks/seedings data lacked bullish surprises and as North American grain flows continue normally. Other than Argentina, there’s just no readily available alternative for importers until August. December cash corn sales will be advised on rallies near $4.70. July corn has solid support below $4.50 with an upside target of $4.90-$5.10.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Tariff Mania in Full Swing! The Corn & Ethanol Report 04/03/2025
We kickoff the day with Challenger Job Cuts at 6:00 A.M., US Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Final & S&P Global Services PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Services PMI, ISM Services Business Activity, ISM Services Employment, ISM Services New Orders, and ISM Services Prices at 9:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech at 11:30 A.M., Fed Cook Speech at 1:30 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
ADP released Wednesday’s private payroll data for March. Private businesses added 155,000 US workers during the month, beating expectations of 105,000 and surpassing an upwardly revised 84,000 jobs in February. The services sector added 132,000 jobs: 57,000 jobs from the professional/business services sector, 38,000 from financial activities, 17,000 leisure/hospitality, 12,00 jobs in education/health services, and 3,000 information jobs, while trade/transportation/utilities lost 6,000 jobs. The goods-producing sector added 24,000, with 21,000in manufacturing and 6,000 in construction, while the natural resources/mining sector lost 3,000 jobs. US job growth will be critical following yesterday’s tariff announcement. The EU, Canada, and China plan to retaliate with their tariffs on US products. It will not be a gamechanger of US imports that are already being tax and tariff on the US and the US charging zero in tariffs. This is the end of a trade war not a beginning. In the short run, there could be sizable US economic adjustment period ahead and corporate profits squeezed, but one thing is for sure there will be negotiating talks.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Severe Weather Warnings Are Still in Effect in AR, TN, KY, Oh, and States Eastward; US Forecast Drier After April 7th; Cold Lingers in Great Lakes/Midwest:
The central US forecast has changed little from previous runs. Extremes are set to continue into the second half of April. Additional, soaking/flooding rainfall of 3-900” favors AR, MO, TN, KY, and the entire Midwest. This follows 48-hour accumulation of .80-1.80” east of the Mississippi River. Flood concerns are centered on southern IL, IN, KY, AR & TN, and Ag Resources (ARC) doubts fieldwork resumes until the second half of the month. 6-15 day forecasts are completely dry, which along with warming temps in the Plains & far Midwest allows normal seeding dates. It’s the Great Lakes & E Midwest where overnight lows stay in the 30’s/40’s into April16th. There is no yield drag on corn/soybean unless crops are planted after May 15th. Concern today is limited to drought intensification across the Plains and the need to rush seed in the ground in the southern Midwest. Note corn seeding in AR is typically 50% complete by April 20th. Corn seeding in TN/KY on average reaches 50% complete May 1-5.
South American Weather Pattern Discussion
Brazilian Monsoon Extends into Mis-April; Regional Dryness Persists:
The Brazilian forecast into mid-month is viewed as benign. Widespread dryness in Argentina facilitates corn and northern Brazil to meet safrinha corn’s mid-season moisture demands. However, risk of a sputtering monsoon remains remains in place, and drought is emerging in key areas of Mato Grosso, Parana & Sao Paulo. Brazilian subsoil moisture is overall a concern. Normal rainfall persists in Mato Grosso nearby. Elsewhere, 10-day accumulations of 2’ or more will be scattered/regional in nature. Concern today is centered on Mato Grosso do Sul & Parana, where modest net soil loss is probable. Model guidance remains consistent in forecasting in forecasting a drier trend across most of Brazil in the last half of April.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Corrects; US Implements Blanket Reciprocal Tariffs; Argentine Basis Moves Lower as Harvest Advances:
Corn futures ended slightly weaker in preparation for the US administration’s tariff policy, which, after yesterday’s close, was confirmed on all imported goods, upward of 25% on automobiles, and 34% on goods sourced from China. The prior China tariffs were 20%, so the actual China tariff rate is 54%. However, Mexico and Canada were excluded from the countries included in reciprocal tariffs. This allows Mexico’s sizable demand for US corn to continue unabated, and suggests July CBOT is undervalued. Note also the arrival of Argentine corn into the world market wont occur until June. Ag Resources (ARC) forecast is maintained the July-Dec spread widens 20-30 cents prior to expiration. The market’s sensitivity to N Hemisphere weather will be heightened amid NASS stocks/seedings data lacked bullish surprises and as North American grain flows continue normally. Other than Argentina, there’s just no readily available alternative for importers until August. December cash corn sales will be advised on rallies near $4.70. July corn has solid support below $4.50 with an upside target of $4.90-$5.10.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Daniel Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374