Softs Report 04/03/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday in cautious trading before the release of the Trump tariffs. Ideas are that the market has rallied well from the lows made a couple of weeks ago and could consolidate the gains for now. Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation. There are still reports of weaker demand potential from other buyers against an outlook for less US production in the coming year.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 67.21 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.00, 64.80, and 63.50 May, with resistance of 68.50, 69.20 and 50.20 May.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Apr 3
For the week ended Mar 27, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 129.1 40.0 10438.0 10889.5 4054.2 1049.2
pima cotton 8.5 0.7 382.8 271.5 106.0 1.7

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday as the sellers returned tzo the market. The down trends in prices remains intact. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 224.00, 218.00, and 212.00 May, with resistance at 278.00, 289.00, and 302.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little higher yesterday and London closed a little lower. The lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam continue. The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans and are hoping for higher prices. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 341.52 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 354.00 May, and resistance is at 405.00, 408.00 and 414.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5170, 5010, and 4920 May, with resistance at 5420, 5640, and 5740 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday on follow through buying tied to ideas the market is oversold. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and forecasts for more showers in the next couple of weeks and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year. Indian production is expected to be a disappointment this year. Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are still around. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather. Trends are turning down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1920, 1870, and 1850 May and resistance is at 1970, 2010, and 2030 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 540.00, 531.00, and 523.00 May, with resistance at 567.00, 573.00, and 583.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed much higher yesterday and trends are now up on the daily charts. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year. Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, and Ivory coast has already said that offers into the world market will be less this year. Chart trends are mixed to down in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too little rain that has reduced yields.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 8350, 8100, and 7640 May, with resistance at 8780, 8900, and 9340 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6470, 6270, and 5960 May, with resistance at 6870, 7050, and 7500 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322