Grains Report 04/02/2025

WHEAT

General Comments:   All three markets closed higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports that showed less than expected planting intentions by farmers.  USDA sid farmers intended to plant 43.350 million acres of all Wheat, down from trade expectations of 46.392 million acres and plantings last year of 46.079 million acres.  Dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea regions are still the main feature but rains in the forecast for the Great Plains from Nebraska to the north this weekend according to one model.  The other model has more general rains for all parts of the Great Plains.  The coverage of the new system does not look very impressive.  It is very dry in both areas although Kansas got a minimal amount of rain last week.  Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy.  Overall demand has been weak so the lack of rain hurting production potential is about to be important.  The trade is also worried about the potential for tariffs to be imposed in early April and the counter tariffs that would come back to US agriculture.  \

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 524, 518, and 512 May, with resistance at 553, 563, and 575 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 546, 542, and 536 May, with resistance at 583, 598, and 604 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down.  Support is at 576, 570, and 564 May, and resistance is at 600, 610, and 626 May.

 

RICE:

General Comments: Rice closed mixed yesterday, with the trade reacting to less than expected stocks but higher than expected intended area planted from USDA.  It estimated Rice planting intentions at 2.9 million acres, from trade expectations near 3.7 million and about unchanged from last year.  There was more concern about the tariffs scheduled to be imposed in early April.  Prices remain cheap, but could develop into a trading range, and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now.  Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher.  Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1325, 1318 and 1306 May and resistance is at 1365, 1393, and 1416 May.

 

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed mixed yesterday, with nearby prices a little higher and new crop prices unchanged to lower as traders reacted to USDA stocks in all positions report and planting intentions report.  USDA estimated stocks at 8.151 billion bushels, below average trade estimates, and planting intentions at 95.436 million acres, above average trade estimates.  There was renewed talk that tariffs could damage agricultural exports starting in early April when the reciprocal tariffs will be announced.  President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed for all countries on a reciprocal basis starting in April.  The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time.  It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had light precipitation lately.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 442, 434, and 433 May, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 484 May.  Trends in Oats are down.  Support is at 346, 342, and 333 May, and resistance is at 362, 365, and 377 May.

 

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower yesterday in response to the USDA stocks and planting intentions estimates.  USDA estimated the quarterly stocks at 1.910 billion bushels, a little above the trade estimates and above last year.  Planting intentions were estimated at 83.495 million acres, b3elow trade estimates and much below last year.  Futures had traded higher in the previous sessions in anticipation of the repot and were able to sell off when the report did not really show big surprises.  There was also increasing talk of new tariffs coming in early April and the damage they could do to US agriculture.  South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less.  Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand.  The Brazil Soybeans harvest is now estimated to be more than 80% complete.

Overnight News  Philippines bought 135,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.

Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed  Support is at 998, 990 and 980 May, and resistance is at 1041, 1051, and 1055 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down.  Support is at 290.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 297.00, 301.00, and 304.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4390, 4270, and 4220 May, with resistance at 4540, 4600, and 4700 May.

 

PALM OIL AND CANOLA

General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were higher today on reports of better than expected export demand.  There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things.  Demand has not been good so far this month and was weaker than expected for February.  Chart trends are mixed.  Canola was higher again yesterday and continued to move away from the extreme lows set when China imposed tariffs on Canola and products a couple of weeks ago.  The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed in early April.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 600.00, 590.00, and 587.00 May, with resistance at 630.00, 640.00, and 652.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are up.  Support is at 4220, 4140, and 4070 June, with resistance at 4500, 4550, and 4600 June.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast  Heavy rain.  Temperatures should average above normal.

 

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 2

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr          1145.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

May          1105.00     —         Unquoted   –        –

Jun          1082.50     —         Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep  1025.00    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec  1015.00    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar  1022.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           1150.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

May           1110.00      —        Unquoted   –        –

Jun           1087.50      —        Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1030.00    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   1020.00    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar   1027.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           1130.00    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           1080.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr            4,900.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr            499.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.447)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 02

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 328,319 lots, or 12.97 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

May-25     3,893     3,968     3,888     3,954     3,898     3,939        41   198,422   158,810

Jul-25     3,920     3,984     3,913     3,974     3,923     3,958        35    68,835    94,272

Sep-25     3,938     3,999     3,937     3,992     3,949     3,978        29    53,118    75,295

Nov-25     3,921     3,974     3,919     3,963     3,930     3,954        24     5,423    34,983

Jan-26     3,929     3,981     3,929     3,968     3,940     3,960        20     1,708     5,589

Mar-26     3,942     3,988     3,940     3,975     3,948     3,969        21       813     1,728

Corn

Turnover: 712,502 lots, or 16.25 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

Settle                                  Interest

May-25     2,254     2,271     2,252     2,268     2,252     2,263        11   402,149   1,034,990

Jul-25     2,295     2,313     2,293     2,312     2,292     2,304        12   196,306     840,679

Sep-25     2,314     2,334     2,314     2,331     2,313     2,325        12    69,224     228,515

Nov-25     2,259     2,274     2,258     2,272     2,254     2,266        12    31,259     153,103

Jan-26     2,242     2,255     2,238     2,254     2,238     2,248        10     7,146      19,605

Mar-26     2,248     2,259     2,241     2,257     2,246     2,249         3     6,418      10,566

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,730,561 lots, or 49.97 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

Settle                                  Interest

May-25     2,814     2,840     2,797     2,832     2,816     2,820         4   865,772   1,222,762

Jul-25     2,820     2,843     2,805     2,837     2,820     2,826         6    86,847     411,271

Aug-25     2,946     2,976     2,936     2,972     2,952     2,960         8    13,781     160,109

Sep-25     2,960     2,986     2,945     2,983     2,961     2,969         8   683,460   1,864,781

Nov-25     2,991     3,012     2,972     3,008     2,990     2,996         6    14,963     236,297

Dec-25     2,980     3,003     2,969     3,000     2,980     2,989         9     5,499      83,767

Jan-26     2,957     2,980     2,944     2,978     2,955     2,966        11    52,443     258,655

Mar-26     2,843     2,868     2,835     2,865     2,841     2,848         7     7,796      43,708

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,185,304 lots, or 10.83 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Apr-25         –         –         –     9,366     9,366     9,366         0         0        12

May-25     9,176     9,346     9,148     9,304     9,118     9,264       146   951,187   440,631

Jun-25     8,866     9,030     8,858     8,998     8,834     8,972       138     4,446     8,369

Jul-25     8,714     8,882     8,708     8,850     8,690     8,820       130     2,153     2,996

Aug-25     8,598     8,774     8,592     8,742     8,572     8,706       134       178       692

Sep-25     8,520     8,704     8,510     8,668     8,496     8,624       128   217,369   229,433

Oct-25     8,512     8,638     8,512     8,610     8,456     8,540        84        29       980

Nov-25     8,448     8,592     8,448     8,564     8,438     8,526        88        43       607

Dec-25     8,448     8,568     8,442     8,552     8,408     8,512       104        38       182

Jan-26     8,410     8,568     8,402     8,544     8,394     8,508       114     9,839    22,934

Feb-26     8,422     8,548     8,422     8,516     8,382     8,476        94        14       823

Mar-26     8,392     8,500     8,392     8,496     8,368     8,462        94         8        41

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 736,622 lots, or 58.84 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

May-25     7,912     8,066     7,904     7,986     7,934     7,996        62   427,124   318,257

Jul-25     7,860     7,984     7,850     7,922     7,860     7,940        80     3,891    14,449

Aug-25     7,918     8,036     7,902     7,974     7,912     7,970        58     2,461     5,552

Sep-25     7,918     8,034     7,896     7,968     7,906     7,978        72   291,574   465,819

Nov-25     7,922     8,048     7,920     7,986     7,926     7,984        58       201     1,796

Dec-25     7,890     8,000     7,890     7,952     7,906     7,944        38        16       111

Jan-26     7,846     7,944     7,820     7,892     7,838     7,882        44    11,266    27,465

Mar-26     7,792     7,900     7,790     7,864     7,792     7,826        34        89       170

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28

 

 

 

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

 

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –

 

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –

 

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

 

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –

 

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –

 

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –

 

($1=MYR4.4363)

 

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-28-25 0623ET

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