Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rates, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change at 7:15 A.M., Factory Orders MoM and Factory Orders ex Transportation at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M., Fed Kugler Speech, LMI Logistics Managers Index, Total Vehicle Sales, and Reciprocal Tariff Plan Announcement at 3:30 P.M.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Midwest Abnormally Wet/Cold Next 10 Days; Improvement Offered for Mid-April:
The Central US forecast consistently calls for unwanted excessive rainfall and regional floods across the Delta and southern Midwest, and an extension of cold Midwest temps into mid-April. Also of note is that only scattered/regional rainfall is forecast across the drier areas of TX, OK, and KS. Such rain will not reverse the trend of drought intensification there. The EU, GFS, and AI models agree that rainfall of 4-10+” blankets AR, MO, TN, KY, and northern IL, IN, & OH. Flooding/ponding is assured following recent rainfall in the eastern Midwest. Additionally, low temps in the 20’s & 30’s are forecast into next Tuesday. Only moderate warming occurs in WI, IL, IN, OH, and MI thereafter into April 15th. Early-season fieldwork will be challenged, but its way too early for undue concern.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Extends Post-USDA Rally; Tightening Old Crop Balance Sheets Lends Support Through Spring:
July corn remains firmly above the 200-day moving average as the lack of bearish surprises on NASS stock/seedings data shifts focus to sizable export demand and the need for drier Midwest/Delta weather mid-April onward. It’s tough to be bearish of corn until the crop’s in the ground and early summer weather conditions are known. There’s limited tolerance for adversity as carryover stocks are trimmed further. Ag Resources (ARC) this week raised 24/25 US corn exports to 2,650 Mil Bu, a full 200 Mil above USDA. This is based on price analysis and US corn’s competitive position in the global marketplace through August. ARC estimates Mexico still has some 120-140 Mil Bu of US corn to meet old crop needs. It will be important if the US places new tariffs on Mexico ad if they retaliate. ARC is bullish of the July-Dec spread, but it remains nearby strength in Dec will be used to sell forward. Dec above $4.60 requires US weather adversity. July’s initial upside target is $4.85, and then $5.20.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Exports-Tariffs- Weather & WASDE Upcoming Focus. The Corn & Ethanol Report 04/02/2025
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rates, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change at 7:15 A.M., Factory Orders MoM and Factory Orders ex Transportation at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M., Fed Kugler Speech, LMI Logistics Managers Index, Total Vehicle Sales, and Reciprocal Tariff Plan Announcement at 3:30 P.M.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Midwest Abnormally Wet/Cold Next 10 Days; Improvement Offered for Mid-April:
The Central US forecast consistently calls for unwanted excessive rainfall and regional floods across the Delta and southern Midwest, and an extension of cold Midwest temps into mid-April. Also of note is that only scattered/regional rainfall is forecast across the drier areas of TX, OK, and KS. Such rain will not reverse the trend of drought intensification there. The EU, GFS, and AI models agree that rainfall of 4-10+” blankets AR, MO, TN, KY, and northern IL, IN, & OH. Flooding/ponding is assured following recent rainfall in the eastern Midwest. Additionally, low temps in the 20’s & 30’s are forecast into next Tuesday. Only moderate warming occurs in WI, IL, IN, OH, and MI thereafter into April 15th. Early-season fieldwork will be challenged, but its way too early for undue concern.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Extends Post-USDA Rally; Tightening Old Crop Balance Sheets Lends Support Through Spring:
July corn remains firmly above the 200-day moving average as the lack of bearish surprises on NASS stock/seedings data shifts focus to sizable export demand and the need for drier Midwest/Delta weather mid-April onward. It’s tough to be bearish of corn until the crop’s in the ground and early summer weather conditions are known. There’s limited tolerance for adversity as carryover stocks are trimmed further. Ag Resources (ARC) this week raised 24/25 US corn exports to 2,650 Mil Bu, a full 200 Mil above USDA. This is based on price analysis and US corn’s competitive position in the global marketplace through August. ARC estimates Mexico still has some 120-140 Mil Bu of US corn to meet old crop needs. It will be important if the US places new tariffs on Mexico ad if they retaliate. ARC is bullish of the July-Dec spread, but it remains nearby strength in Dec will be used to sell forward. Dec above $4.60 requires US weather adversity. July’s initial upside target is $4.85, and then $5.20.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Daniel Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374