AgMaster Report – 04/02/2025

MAY WHEAT

After a 50 cent break since mid-March (575-525), May Wht came into the Mar 31 acres & Stocks Report quite oversold & was rewarded with the 2^nd lowest acres since 1919 at 45.35ma with stocks neutral at 1237mb! That was enough for a 2-day  25 cent rally! As well, poor conditions in the SW plains threaten the Winter Wheat crop! The Black Sea is also quite dry & the Russian Wheat Crop has been lowered to 80.3 mmt! Cumulative export inspections are running 16% over 2024! The mkt feels like its low is in but is waiting on reciprocal tariff announcements tomorrow!

 

MAY CORN

On yesterday’s Acres/Stocks Report, Corn acres came in at 95.32ma – on the high end of the range but widely expected by the trade! Stocks were friendly at 8151mb (8352-ly)! So the mkt rallied on the #’s – as pundits felt the #’s were dialed in & friendly! Mon inspections were strong at 1.614mmt & US corn is the cheapest in the world! Export inspections are running 30% over 2024! Yesterday, Corn open interest jumped 35,000 contracts! The mkt is anxiously awaiting the tariff announcements on Wed!

 

MAY BEANS

Yesterday’s report lowered bean acres 3.5ma from 2024 to 83.76ma but raised stocks to 1910mb (1895-exp)! So Mon, the mkt traded lower on the stocks but today it has traded higher off the reduced acreage! Brazil’s harvest is 82% in! The mkt – like all the other mkts – is awaiting the Trump Tariff announcements coming out tomorrow – & then will refocus on the US weather going into planting – which has been very dry in many areas due to a snowless winter!

 

APRIL CAT

The month-long $20 rally in Apl Cat (190-210) has stalled out – as the mkt has consolidated within $3 of the highs! Headwinds winds have been provided by the Trump Tariff announcements tomorrow & month/quarter-end evening up yesterday – and tailwinds are supporting as the outdoor-barbeque season – the best demand period of the year – is right around the corner! So, exports are hanging in the balance while domestic demand will be very strong!

 

APRIL HOGS

For most of March, April Hogs have been locked into a tight trading range (85-88) supported by the upcoming strong “cook-out” demand period & pork’s natural price advantage over beef in the supermarket! Topping out the rallies is the uncertain tariff situation with Canada & Mexico – big buyers of US pork! Clarity on this issue should be forthcoming in the next few days! Another “tariff postponement” would of course be very positive for April Hogs!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337