Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Chicago PMI at 8:45 A.M., Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction 10:30 A.M., Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grains Stocks at 11:00 A.M.
The Commitment of Traders report showed that for the week of March 25th funds were net sellers across principal ag markets. Funds were net short in soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, Chicago, KC, and Minneapolis wheat markets. Funds remained net long in corn, hogs, cattle, and feeder cattle. For the week, funds sold just over 90,000 contracts across the three markets, selling 21,000 soybeans, 2,300 soybean meal, 17,000 in soybean oil. Funds bought 1,200 KC wheat, 18,000 cattle, and 2,900 feeder cattle. Nearby all of the bullishness from funds was in livestock.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Extends Active Midwest Rain into April; Drought Concern Centered on Southern Plains, Mexico:
The North American forecast maintains a pattern of heavy rain/snow across the Midwest and Delta/Southeast and a pattern of net drying across the Southern & Western Plains through the first full week of April. There are hints that rains reaches deeper into KS/OK thereafter, but confidence in details are low amid significant model disagreement. A full recharging of soil moisture is probable across E Midwest amid – south as 10-day rainfall of 2-8” is forecast in IL, IN, OH, TN, and KY. Midwest moisture concerns are diminishing rapidly, but very little corn & soybeans will be planted there in the first half of April. The CFSv2 model of April precipitation shows odds are very high for additional systems to flow across the N Plains and the Central. East Midwest. Odds are equally high that a pattern of dryness persists across the US HRW Belt, Southwest and much of Mexican drought is something to watch.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Recovers from AM Losses on Adverse Weather Forecasts; Near Term Direction Hinges Upon US Acres & Tariffs:
May CBOT corn ended 11 cents above session lows as end user value is found. The trades leap-frogging of new crop seeding estimates (now 95+ mil Acres) is noted, but today US corn is the cheapest in the world’s feed grain. And weather patterns in the eastern Midwest and northern Brazil are far from ideal. It’s too early for planting date concern, but should model guidance verify rainfall og 5-9” blankets LA, AR, TN, KY, and southern parts of IL, IN, and OH. A drier pattern will be needed. A bigger concern is forecasts calling for withdrawal of rainfall ibn C & N Brazil in early April. Weather plays a bigger role in price discovery after next week. The market is fundamentally overvalued, but the intensity of recoveries hinges upon seeding intentions. New cash sales are not recommended at current prices.
Surprise in the Report- Funds are Banking On It. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/31/2025
We kickoff the day with Chicago PMI at 8:45 A.M., Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction 10:30 A.M., Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grains Stocks at 11:00 A.M.
The Commitment of Traders report showed that for the week of March 25th funds were net sellers across principal ag markets. Funds were net short in soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, Chicago, KC, and Minneapolis wheat markets. Funds remained net long in corn, hogs, cattle, and feeder cattle. For the week, funds sold just over 90,000 contracts across the three markets, selling 21,000 soybeans, 2,300 soybean meal, 17,000 in soybean oil. Funds bought 1,200 KC wheat, 18,000 cattle, and 2,900 feeder cattle. Nearby all of the bullishness from funds was in livestock.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Extends Active Midwest Rain into April; Drought Concern Centered on Southern Plains, Mexico:
The North American forecast maintains a pattern of heavy rain/snow across the Midwest and Delta/Southeast and a pattern of net drying across the Southern & Western Plains through the first full week of April. There are hints that rains reaches deeper into KS/OK thereafter, but confidence in details are low amid significant model disagreement. A full recharging of soil moisture is probable across E Midwest amid – south as 10-day rainfall of 2-8” is forecast in IL, IN, OH, TN, and KY. Midwest moisture concerns are diminishing rapidly, but very little corn & soybeans will be planted there in the first half of April. The CFSv2 model of April precipitation shows odds are very high for additional systems to flow across the N Plains and the Central. East Midwest. Odds are equally high that a pattern of dryness persists across the US HRW Belt, Southwest and much of Mexican drought is something to watch.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Recovers from AM Losses on Adverse Weather Forecasts; Near Term Direction Hinges Upon US Acres & Tariffs:
May CBOT corn ended 11 cents above session lows as end user value is found. The trades leap-frogging of new crop seeding estimates (now 95+ mil Acres) is noted, but today US corn is the cheapest in the world’s feed grain. And weather patterns in the eastern Midwest and northern Brazil are far from ideal. It’s too early for planting date concern, but should model guidance verify rainfall og 5-9” blankets LA, AR, TN, KY, and southern parts of IL, IN, and OH. A drier pattern will be needed. A bigger concern is forecasts calling for withdrawal of rainfall ibn C & N Brazil in early April. Weather plays a bigger role in price discovery after next week. The market is fundamentally overvalued, but the intensity of recoveries hinges upon seeding intentions. New cash sales are not recommended at current prices.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Any questions contact me directly at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Daniel Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374