Softs Report 03/31/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week before the USDA reports on Monday highlighting planting intentions for the coming crops. Ideas are that the market has rallied well from the lows made a couple of weeks ago and could consolidate the gains for now. Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation. There are still reports of weaker demand potential from other buyers against an outlook for less US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 64.80, 63.90, and 62.60 May, with resistance of 67.80, 68.20 and 68.50 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 333,598
: Positions :
: 32,441 107,126 84,127 118,350 99,789 82,983 28,315 317,900 319,357: 15,698 14,241
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 (Change in open interest: 12,118) :
: 648 4,240 3,494 9,016 1,873 -924 1,596 12,235 11,203: -117 915
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 32.1 25.2 35.5 29.9 24.9 8.5 95.3 95.7: 4.7 4.3
: Total Traders: 348 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 87 128 114 75 62 44 26 277 263:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week and kept the down trends in prices intact. Chart trends are down again on the daily charts. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 230.00, 224.00, and 218.00 May, with resistance at 278.00, 289.00, and 302.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,956 :
: Positions :
: 4,771 8,292 485 306 41 2,700 1,336 8 1,988 685 3,725 :
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 :
: -69 -51 -3 -121 -9 -99 63 -3 19 -78 -345 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.9 52.0 3.0 1.9 0.3 16.9 8.4 0.1 12.5 4.3 23.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61 :
: 13 9 . . . 10 10 . 17 6 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed lower last week as doubts about the production in Brazil continue. Bullish traders were unable to force a move to close above 400.00 May during a couple of attempts earlier in the week. Trends are turning down. The lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam continue. The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans and are hoping for higher prices.. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term. The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year as it is an off year in the country’s biennial crop cycle.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 338.93 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 354.00 May, and resistance is at 405.00, 408.00 and 414.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5270, 5230, and 5010 May, with resistance at 5630, 5740, and 5950 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 224,472
: Positions :
: 46,687 7,611 73,059 46,771 124,938 47,953 11,542 214,471 217,150: 10,002 7,322
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 (Change in open interest: 5,252) :
: 2,233 -425 2,204 285 2,509 -295 138 4,427 4,427: 825 825
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.8 3.4 32.5 20.8 55.7 21.4 5.1 95.5 96.7: 4.5 3.3
: Total Traders: 371 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 132 67 113 82 111 46 17 307 269:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week in part due to the Brazil weather and in part on relaxed vies on Asian Sugar availability. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and forecasts for more showers in the next couple of weeks and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year. Indian production is expected to be a disappointment this year. Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are still around. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather. Trends are turning down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1900, 1850, and 1810 May and resistance is at 1970, 2010, and 2030 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 524.00, 517.00, and 513.00 May, with resistance at 553.00, 567.00, and 575.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,030,802
: Positions :
: 108,444 159,903 237,889 334,712 516,146 271,842 61,177 952,886 975,115: 77,915 55,687
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 (Change in open interest: -5,448) :
: 15,662 2,001 -21,433 -5,301 13,797 3,941 -2,430 -7,131 -8,066: 1,683 2,618
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.5 15.5 23.1 32.5 50.1 26.4 5.9 92.4 94.6: 7.6 5.4
: Total Traders: 234 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 44 76 68 66 42 18 210 172:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week but held the recent trading range. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year. Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, and Ivory coast has already said that offers into the world market will be less this year. Chart trends are mixed to down in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too little rain that has reduced yields.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 7200, 6680, and 6670 May, with resistance at 8590, 8780, and 8900 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 5600, 5290, and 4990 May, with resistance at 6500, 6870, and 7050 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 135,985
: Positions :
: 15,902 9,416 40,895 54,133 67,190 15,045 12,027 125,976 129,528: 10,009 6,457
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 (Change in open interest: -1,118) :
: 168 -950 -663 -147 541 -1,080 -314 -1,722 -1,386: 604 268
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.7 6.9 30.1 39.8 49.4 11.1 8.8 92.6 95.3: 7.4 4.7
: Total Traders: 160 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 40 63 32 31 26 15 140 121:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322