Grains Report 03/31/2025

DJ USDA Report: Recap for Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles & U.S. Planting
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and 2024 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting reports scheduled for release at noon ET on Monday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2025 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Mar. 24 Dec. 2024
Corn 8,195 8,060-8,500 8,352 12,074
Soybeans 1,895 1,823-1,949 1,845 3,100
Wheat 1,220 1,169-1,252 1,089 1,570
****
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2024
Corn 94.165 90.4-96.6 90.594
Soybeans 83.760 82.5-85.5 87.050
All Wheat 46.392 45.4-47.0 46.079
Winter Wheat 33.851 33.3-34.3 33.390
Spring Wheat 10.454 10.0-11.1 10.625
Durum Wheat 2.055 1.9-2.3 2.064

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed lower last week and saw selling pressure every day, with dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea regions still the main feature but with rains in the forecast for the Great Plains from Nebraska to the north this weekend according zto one model. The other model has more general rains for all parts of the Great Plains. The coverage of the new system does not look very impressive. It is very dry in both areas although Kansas got a minimal amount of rain last week. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak so the lack of rain hurting production potential is about to be important. The trade is also worried about the potential for tariffs to be imposed in early April and the counter tariffs that would come back to US agriculture. In addition, there are the stocks of grin in all positions report and the planting intentions report coming Monday to help keep trading subdued. Wheat stocks are estimated at about 1.2 billion bushels. Planted area is estimated by the trade at 46.5 million acres for All Wheat.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 524, 518, and 512 May, with resistance at 553, 563, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 547, 542, and 536 May, with resistance at 583, 598, and 604 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down. Support is at 584, 576, and 570 May, and resistance is at 600, 610, and 626 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 546,873
: Positions :
: 59,552 156,300 183,690 112,398 80,452 151,290 91,695 506,929 512,137: 39,945 34,737
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 (Change in open interest: -1,842) :
: 2,860 3,791 -3,579 -4,195 -10,164 299 7,691 -4,615 -2,261: 2,772 418
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 28.6 33.6 20.6 14.7 27.7 16.8 92.7 93.6: 7.3 6.4
: Total Traders: 406 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 123 109 126 102 94 46 32 329 306:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 282,025
: Positions :
: 17,898 71,355 67,376 80,032 89,285 95,476 30,829 260,782 258,845: 21,242 23,179
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 (Change in open interest: 5,684) :
: -2,477 3,137 4,367 1,865 -1,262 1,165 -1,860 4,919 4,381: 764 1,302
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.3 25.3 23.9 28.4 31.7 33.9 10.9 92.5 91.8: 7.5 8.2
: Total Traders: 237 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 39 63 62 76 76 36 19 193 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 89,453 :
: Positions :
: 44,663 28,310 4,194 608 471 12,077 35,796 5,699 5,299 1,470 4,428 :
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 :
: 3,216 -88 132 608 80 -2,501 -1,348 345 -684 -14 515 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 49.9 31.6 4.7 0.7 0.5 13.5 40.0 6.4 5.9 1.6 5.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 119 :
: 51 33 6 . 4 10 28 13 7 9 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher last week as early week selling met new buying interest and some short covering before the USDA stocks in all positions report and the prospective plantings report coming on Monday. There was more concern about the tariffs scheduled to be imposed in early April. Prices remain cheap, but could develop into a trading range, and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1325, 1318 and 1306 May and resistance is at 1356, 1393, and 1416 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 13,275 :
: Positions :
: 7,148 3,216 0 227 0 374 5,938 72 2,118 686 1,189 :
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 :
: -500 -667 0 -2 0 -7 427 72 106 8 -28 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.8 24.2 0.0 1.7 0.0 2.8 44.7 0.5 16.0 5.2 9.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 79 :
: 23 18 0 . 0 . 22 . 18 6 8 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower again yesterday as traders prepared for the coming USDA stocks in all positions report and planting intentions report. There was renewed talk that tariffs could damage agricultural exports starting in early April when the reciprocal tariffs will be announced. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed for all countries on a reciprocal basis starting in April. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had light precipitation lately. Mostly dry weather is likely this week. Traders expect USDA to estimate planting intentions at near or above 94 million acres this season. Stocks could be near 8.1 billion bushels. Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 442, 434, and 433 May, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 484 May. Trends in Oats are down. Support is at 346, 342, and 333 May, and resistance is at 365, 377, and 385 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,346,083
: Positions :
: 177,734 192,007 813,288 679,073 975,874 493,600 124,923 2,163,696 2,106,092: 182,387 239,991
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 (Change in open interest: -25,996) :
: -16,478 20,151 -24,115 15,094 -39,037 -3,329 9,793 -28,827 -33,209: 2,832 7,213
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.6 8.2 34.7 28.9 41.6 21.0 5.3 92.2 89.8: 7.8 10.2
: Total Traders: 825 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 138 134 196 379 425 51 26 675 692:
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SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little higher last week, with Soybean Oil the strongest part of the complex and Soybean Meal closing lower. There was talk that the administration could approve the use of more bio diesel in blends this year. Traders were getting ready for the USDA stocks in all positions report and the planting intentions report, with both due to be released on Monday. There was also increasing talk of new tariffs coming in early April and the damage they could do to US agriculture. South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets are stronger in South America. The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be more than 75% done. Soybeans planted area is estimated by the trade at 83.8 million acres and stocks in all positions are estimated at about 1.9 billion bushels.
Overnight News
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed Support is at 998, 990 and 980 May, and resistance is at 1041, 1051, and 1055 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 290.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 297.00, 301.00, and 304.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4390, 4270, and 4220 May, with resistance at 4530, 4600, and 4700 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,043,992
: Positions :
: 71,519 125,981 310,478 391,223 444,760 222,389 85,016 995,609 966,235: 48,383 77,757
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 (Change in open interest: 5,870) :
: -7,240 6,089 -3,671 13,014 1,399 1,641 4,128 3,745 7,945: 2,125 -2,076
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.9 12.1 29.7 37.5 42.6 21.3 8.1 95.4 92.6: 4.6 7.4
: Total Traders: 581 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 112 144 188 202 232 46 32 470 499:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 636,576
: Positions :
: 51,887 130,190 143,923 237,159 288,907 173,567 42,718 606,536 605,738: 30,040 30,838
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 (Change in open interest: 4,778) :
: -2,234 12,580 2,556 1,320 -15,611 4,773 4,344 6,415 3,870: -1,636 908
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.2 20.5 22.6 37.3 45.4 27.3 6.7 95.3 95.2: 4.7 4.8
: Total Traders: 334 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 86 103 100 92 43 26 274 257:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 631,676
: Positions :
: 48,173 130,122 164,687 233,673 258,955 130,371 45,005 576,905 598,769: 54,771 32,907
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 (Change in open interest: 17,203) :
: -5,801 13,999 6,351 16,979 -4,476 -1,367 -229 16,162 15,645: 1,040 1,558
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.6 20.6 26.1 37.0 41.0 20.6 7.1 91.3 94.8: 8.7 5.2
: Total Traders: 343 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 87 94 127 114 35 21 283 267:
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PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher last week after moving sharply lower early as the market reversed on ideas that prices are a little too cheap. The market was closed today. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand has not been good so far this month and was weaker than expected for February. Chart trends are mixed. Canola was higher all week and closed near the highs of the week and continued to move away from the extreme lows set when China imposed tariffs on Canola and products a couple of weeks ago. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed in early April.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 587.00, 575.00, and 563.00 May, with resistance at 615.00, 617.00, and 630.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4220, 4140, and 4070 June, with resistance at 4500, 4550, and 4600 June.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 20,439 :
: Positions :
: 14,929 8,744 378 3,118 1,036 440 761 0 1,836 4,930 1,820 :
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 :
: -1,262 198 0 180 340 0 0 0 80 -1,560 300 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 73.0 42.8 1.8 15.3 5.1 2.2 3.7 0.0 9.0 24.1 8.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 7 7 . 6 4 . . 0 5 6 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 25, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 254,684 :
: Positions :
: 159,507 103,224 13,863 7,014 2,411 30,762 99,187 21,307 12,014 7,075 11,176 :
: Changes from: March 18, 2025 :
: 26,630 -8,383 -831 -656 127 -19,391 19,760 181 2,779 -878 -3,266 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 62.6 40.5 5.4 2.8 0.9 12.1 38.9 8.4 4.7 2.8 4.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 325 :
: 71 56 5 6 6 28 64 23 81 47 44 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 275,080 lots, or 10.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 3,895 3,935 3,882 3,907 3,878 3,909 31 185,903 186,256
Jul-25 3,918 3,958 3,910 3,936 3,905 3,936 31 44,548 98,717
Sep-25 3,939 3,984 3,936 3,962 3,932 3,959 27 32,956 71,296
Nov-25 3,916 3,957 3,914 3,943 3,909 3,933 24 6,172 34,876
Jan-26 3,923 3,967 3,922 3,953 3,916 3,943 27 3,208 5,891
Mar-26 3,934 3,977 3,925 3,964 3,921 3,947 26 2,293 1,687
Corn
Turnover: 802,827 lots, or 18.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,258 2,261 2,244 2,251 2,265 2,250 -15 496,206 1,111,955
Jul-25 2,301 2,301 2,283 2,288 2,304 2,290 -14 198,829 756,141
Sep-25 2,310 2,313 2,302 2,306 2,317 2,306 -11 68,801 239,084
Nov-25 2,259 2,259 2,241 2,245 2,261 2,246 -15 22,154 150,778
Jan-26 2,242 2,244 2,232 2,236 2,247 2,237 -10 5,319 17,425
Mar-26 2,253 2,255 2,240 2,241 2,259 2,246 -13 11,518 9,251
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,074,237 lots, or 59.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,815 2,855 2,805 2,851 2,826 2,830 4 1,193,856 1,358,857
Jul-25 2,811 2,848 2,801 2,844 2,820 2,826 6 82,313 388,118
Aug-25 2,935 2,982 2,927 2,979 2,949 2,957 8 13,603 161,991
Sep-25 2,942 2,992 2,934 2,989 2,952 2,966 14 682,366 1,833,643
Nov-25 2,970 3,018 2,961 3,014 2,978 2,991 13 19,655 234,737
Dec-25 2,962 3,005 2,952 3,001 2,965 2,978 13 5,317 83,791
Jan-26 2,940 2,980 2,928 2,978 2,944 2,956 12 65,049 236,789
Mar-26 2,828 2,865 2,815 2,864 2,830 2,836 6 12,078 42,106
Palm Oil
Turnover: 917,871 lots, or 82.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-25 9,372 9,410 9,330 9,410 9,320 9,366 46 116 12
May-25 9,102 9,130 9,032 9,104 9,058 9,076 18 784,425 417,753
Jun-25 8,786 8,838 8,738 8,814 8,760 8,784 24 3,254 8,054
Jul-25 8,618 8,694 8,592 8,672 8,602 8,632 30 1,172 1,816
Aug-25 8,536 8,580 8,480 8,552 8,468 8,520 52 55 674
Sep-25 8,470 8,510 8,408 8,496 8,404 8,454 50 123,222 197,248
Oct-25 8,402 8,450 8,398 8,442 8,366 8,428 62 31 995
Nov-25 8,352 8,420 8,352 8,420 8,346 8,386 40 18 606
Dec-25 8,328 8,400 8,328 8,400 8,328 8,354 26 31 198
Jan-26 8,320 8,402 8,310 8,400 8,316 8,348 32 4,783 20,658
Feb-26 8,320 8,364 8,320 8,360 8,308 8,342 34 756 834
Mar-26 8,332 8,362 8,320 8,362 8,322 8,340 18 8 43
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 496,084 lots, or 39.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 7,984 8,008 7,928 7,992 7,992 7,968 -24 322,205 383,434
Jul-25 7,884 7,918 7,840 7,904 7,888 7,880 -8 2,502 13,398
Aug-25 7,936 7,974 7,892 7,960 7,938 7,928 -10 1,075 5,126
Sep-25 7,930 7,966 7,882 7,954 7,934 7,926 -8 162,944 416,176
Nov-25 7,946 7,958 7,900 7,958 7,936 7,926 -10 61 1,728
Dec-25 7,892 7,930 7,880 7,930 7,918 7,906 -12 10 104
Jan-26 7,856 7,892 7,818 7,882 7,844 7,856 12 7,270 21,504
Mar-26 7,780 7,834 7,780 7,820 7,810 7,808 -2 17 101
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322