Every year around this time, you can always guarantee one thing. There will be a nice 80+ degree day followed by a day with a high in the 40s and rain. That just so happens to be the way the weather is working out this weekend. The inconsistent weather pattern of warm then back to cold and vice versa is a consistent pattern on an annual basis. That is partially true in the market action, as prices head in one direction and flip back the other way. Wheat has been a perfect example. You could also say the wheat market has the tendencies for the Midwest weather patterns.
Corn saw some pressure this week as the market was squaring up ahead of next week’s USDA reports and potential tariff talk. May was down 11 cents (2.37%), with new crop December slipping 8 1/2 cents. Ethanol production backed off according to EIA data, back down 52,000 barrels per day to 1.053 million bpd in the week of 3/21. Stocks of ethanol were back to building, up 775,000 barrels to 27.35 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.04 MMT sold during the week ending on March 20. That brought the total export commitments to 53.06 MMT, which is 85% of USDA’s full year export forecast and now lagging the 5-year average of 86% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options trimming another 32,663 contracts from their net long position as of March 25, taking their net long to just 74,607 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex led the grain collapse this week, lower across all three exchanges. Chicago was down 30 cents in the May contract this week (-5.37%). May Kansas City posted a 37 cent loss (6.28%). MPLS futures saw 24 cent drop (-3.97%) in the May contract since last Friday. Some pressure came from midweek news that Russia and Ukraine had come to some sort of ceasefire for Black Sea vessels as well as each other’s energy facilities. State Crop Progress reports showed winter wheat ratings in Kansas up 1% to 49% gd/ex and Texas 3% higher to 31%. Export Sales data had wheat booking at just 100,325 MT during the week of 3/20, up from last week’s MY low and net reductions. That took export sale commitments to 21.092 MMT, which is now 93% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 101% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 11,919 contracts to their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of March 25 to 92,587 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 45,450 contracts, a reduction of 1,213 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans found some strength this week, helped by late week support, as May was 13 1/4 cents (1.31%) higher. November posted a 21 ¼ gain since last Friday. May Soybean meal was applying the pressure, down another $6.80/ton (2.26%), with bean oil back up 315 points (7.50%) since last Friday. Bean oil support came from a Reuters report that the White House asked biofuel and oil producers to discuss new biofuel policy, reportedly both agreeing to increase the blending mandate for renewable diesel and biodiesel. This week’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean business at just 338,469 MT in the week of 3/20. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 45.76 MMT. That is 92% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, lagging the 5-year average pace by 1 percentage point. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net short of 42,959 contracts on Tuesday, an increase of 20,954 contracts from the previous week.
Live cattle continued to power through in true bull fashion, despite early week pressure, up $1.875 (0.91%). The cash market continues was firmer this week, with southern sales at $209-210 and Northern trade at $213-214. Dressed trade was up to $335-345. Feeders were up $1.95 in the April contract (0.68%) on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $1.02 week/week to $286.76. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw gains again this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed slightly to $14.14/cwt. Choice was up $7.37 (2.3%) to $332.8, while Select was $9.06 higher (2.9%) to $318.68. Weekly beef production totaled 528.6 million lbs this week, back up 8.6% from last week’s weather driven slowdown and 7.3% above the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 1.7%, as slaughter is 5.5% lower. Cold Storage data showed beef stocks of 428.13 million lbs at the end of February, a drop of 5.92% from the previous month and 2.27% below the same month last year. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding another 17,717 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 137,892 contracts. Managed money was extending their record net long to 34,132 contracts by March 25 in feeder cattle futures and options.
Hogs has a tight range this week, with April up just 57 cents (0.67%). The CME Lean Hog Index was down just 7 cents this week at $89.13 as of March 26. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down just 30 cents this week (-0.3%). Pork production was back up 2.5% from last week and 4.2% above the same week a year ago at 535.7 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 3.4%, as slaughter is 3.7% lower. Cold Storage showed 423.137 million lbs of pork stocks on hand at the end of February, a 3.9% increase from January but down 7.75% from last year’s total and the tightest stocks for the month since 1997. March 1 hog inventory was tallied at 74.512 million head according to Hogs & Pigs data, down 0.24% yr/yr. Market hogs were at 68.532 million head, a 0.21% drop, with the breeding herd down 0.6% to 5.98 million head. Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting back 5,343 contracts to their net long position as of 3/25 to a net position of 51,366 contracts.
Cotton bulls were on the move this week, as the front month May contracts was up 163 points (2.5%). Export Sales data tallied cotton sales at just 84,405 RB in the week of March 20. Shipments were back to the second largest this marketing year at 396,407 RB in that week. Commitments are now at 10.309 million RB, which is 100% of the USDA forecast, lagging behind the 5-year average sales pace of 101%. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back down 97 points this week, to 53.66 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding back 4,193 contracts to their net short position as of March 25 to 73,810 contracts.
Market Watch
Next Monday rounds out March and could end with some sparks as the USDA will release their annual Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports that morning. Weekly Export Inspections data will also be released on Monday morning. On Tuesday, NASS will release their monthly Grain Crushings, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday morning. The weekly Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning, with monthly Census export data released as well. April live cattle options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn doesn’t look like the best bullish chart setup. There is a bear pennant formation off the recent collapse, with a breakout on Tuesday of this week. The triangle count (just using the triangle portion of the pennant) was $4.37 and met today. The actual pennant count using the flagpole formation would suggest a test of $4.11 ¾. The LOC low lateral support would be $4.28, which breaking the 2/3 speedline last week does suggest a test. Stochastics are in neutral with a bearish bias, and MACD is still bearish. Any upside swing would take a break past the 18-day moving average at $4.50 ¼ to feel more comfortable of a breakout.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Consistent Inconsistencies. Ag Marketing Report 03/31/2025
Every year around this time, you can always guarantee one thing. There will be a nice 80+ degree day followed by a day with a high in the 40s and rain. That just so happens to be the way the weather is working out this weekend. The inconsistent weather pattern of warm then back to cold and vice versa is a consistent pattern on an annual basis. That is partially true in the market action, as prices head in one direction and flip back the other way. Wheat has been a perfect example. You could also say the wheat market has the tendencies for the Midwest weather patterns.
Corn saw some pressure this week as the market was squaring up ahead of next week’s USDA reports and potential tariff talk. May was down 11 cents (2.37%), with new crop December slipping 8 1/2 cents. Ethanol production backed off according to EIA data, back down 52,000 barrels per day to 1.053 million bpd in the week of 3/21. Stocks of ethanol were back to building, up 775,000 barrels to 27.35 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.04 MMT sold during the week ending on March 20. That brought the total export commitments to 53.06 MMT, which is 85% of USDA’s full year export forecast and now lagging the 5-year average of 86% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options trimming another 32,663 contracts from their net long position as of March 25, taking their net long to just 74,607 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex led the grain collapse this week, lower across all three exchanges. Chicago was down 30 cents in the May contract this week (-5.37%). May Kansas City posted a 37 cent loss (6.28%). MPLS futures saw 24 cent drop (-3.97%) in the May contract since last Friday. Some pressure came from midweek news that Russia and Ukraine had come to some sort of ceasefire for Black Sea vessels as well as each other’s energy facilities. State Crop Progress reports showed winter wheat ratings in Kansas up 1% to 49% gd/ex and Texas 3% higher to 31%. Export Sales data had wheat booking at just 100,325 MT during the week of 3/20, up from last week’s MY low and net reductions. That took export sale commitments to 21.092 MMT, which is now 93% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 101% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 11,919 contracts to their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of March 25 to 92,587 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 45,450 contracts, a reduction of 1,213 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans found some strength this week, helped by late week support, as May was 13 1/4 cents (1.31%) higher. November posted a 21 ¼ gain since last Friday. May Soybean meal was applying the pressure, down another $6.80/ton (2.26%), with bean oil back up 315 points (7.50%) since last Friday. Bean oil support came from a Reuters report that the White House asked biofuel and oil producers to discuss new biofuel policy, reportedly both agreeing to increase the blending mandate for renewable diesel and biodiesel. This week’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean business at just 338,469 MT in the week of 3/20. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 45.76 MMT. That is 92% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, lagging the 5-year average pace by 1 percentage point. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net short of 42,959 contracts on Tuesday, an increase of 20,954 contracts from the previous week.
Live cattle continued to power through in true bull fashion, despite early week pressure, up $1.875 (0.91%). The cash market continues was firmer this week, with southern sales at $209-210 and Northern trade at $213-214. Dressed trade was up to $335-345. Feeders were up $1.95 in the April contract (0.68%) on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $1.02 week/week to $286.76. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw gains again this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed slightly to $14.14/cwt. Choice was up $7.37 (2.3%) to $332.8, while Select was $9.06 higher (2.9%) to $318.68. Weekly beef production totaled 528.6 million lbs this week, back up 8.6% from last week’s weather driven slowdown and 7.3% above the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 1.7%, as slaughter is 5.5% lower. Cold Storage data showed beef stocks of 428.13 million lbs at the end of February, a drop of 5.92% from the previous month and 2.27% below the same month last year. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding another 17,717 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 137,892 contracts. Managed money was extending their record net long to 34,132 contracts by March 25 in feeder cattle futures and options.
Hogs has a tight range this week, with April up just 57 cents (0.67%). The CME Lean Hog Index was down just 7 cents this week at $89.13 as of March 26. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down just 30 cents this week (-0.3%). Pork production was back up 2.5% from last week and 4.2% above the same week a year ago at 535.7 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 3.4%, as slaughter is 3.7% lower. Cold Storage showed 423.137 million lbs of pork stocks on hand at the end of February, a 3.9% increase from January but down 7.75% from last year’s total and the tightest stocks for the month since 1997. March 1 hog inventory was tallied at 74.512 million head according to Hogs & Pigs data, down 0.24% yr/yr. Market hogs were at 68.532 million head, a 0.21% drop, with the breeding herd down 0.6% to 5.98 million head. Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting back 5,343 contracts to their net long position as of 3/25 to a net position of 51,366 contracts.
Cotton bulls were on the move this week, as the front month May contracts was up 163 points (2.5%). Export Sales data tallied cotton sales at just 84,405 RB in the week of March 20. Shipments were back to the second largest this marketing year at 396,407 RB in that week. Commitments are now at 10.309 million RB, which is 100% of the USDA forecast, lagging behind the 5-year average sales pace of 101%. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back down 97 points this week, to 53.66 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding back 4,193 contracts to their net short position as of March 25 to 73,810 contracts.
Market Watch
Next Monday rounds out March and could end with some sparks as the USDA will release their annual Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports that morning. Weekly Export Inspections data will also be released on Monday morning. On Tuesday, NASS will release their monthly Grain Crushings, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday morning. The weekly Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning, with monthly Census export data released as well. April live cattle options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn doesn’t look like the best bullish chart setup. There is a bear pennant formation off the recent collapse, with a breakout on Tuesday of this week. The triangle count (just using the triangle portion of the pennant) was $4.37 and met today. The actual pennant count using the flagpole formation would suggest a test of $4.11 ¾. The LOC low lateral support would be $4.28, which breaking the 2/3 speedline last week does suggest a test. Stochastics are in neutral with a bearish bias, and MACD is still bearish. Any upside swing would take a break past the 18-day moving average at $4.50 ¼ to feel more comfortable of a breakout.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.