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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 03/28/2025

By On March 28, 2025 - 10:06 AM · In Market Commentaries, Market Reports, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday before the USDA reports on Monday highlighting planting intentions for the coming crops.  Ideas are that the market has rallied well from the lows made a couple of weeks ago and could consolidate the gains for now.  Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation.  There are still reports of weaker demand potential from other buyers against an outlook for less US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 64.80, 63.90, and 62.60 May, with resistance of 67.80, 68.20 and 68.50 May.
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower again yesterday.  Chart trends are turning down again on the daily charts.  The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose.  The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down.  Support is at 238.00, 230.00, and 224.00 May, with resistance at 278.00, 289.00, and 302.00 May.
COFFEE
General Comments:  Both markets closed lower yesterday as doubts about the production in Brazil continue.  Bullish traders were unable to force a move to close above 400.00 Ma during a couple of attempts earlier this week,  Trends are turning down.  The lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam continue.  The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans and are hoping for higher prices..  Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.  The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year as it is an off year in the country’s biennial crop cycle.
Overnight News:  The ICO average price is 338.00 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down.  Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 354.00 May, and resistance is at 405.00, 408.00 and 414.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 5270, 5230, and 5010 May, with resistance at 5630, 5740, and 5950 May.
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday in part due to the Brazil weather and in part on relaxed vies on Asian Sugar availability.  There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and forecasts for more showers in the next couple of weeks and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.  Indian production is expected to be a disappointment this year.  Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are still around.  Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather.  Trends are turning down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down.  Support is at 1900, 1850, and 1810 May and resistance is at 1970, 2010, and 2030 May.  Trends in London are down.  Support is at 524.00, 517.00, and 513.00 May, with resistance at 553.00, 567.00, and 575.00 May.
COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday in what appeared to be mostly speculative selling.  Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year.  Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far.  There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, and Ivory coast has already said that offers into the world market will be less this year.  Chart trends are mixed to down in both markets on the daily charts.  Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too little rain that has reduced yields.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down.  Support is at 7200, 6680, and 6670 May, with resistance at 8590, 8780, and 8900 May.  Trends in London are down.  Support is at 5600, 5290, and 4990 May, with resistance at 6500, 6870, and 7050 May.

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