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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 03/28/2025

By On March 28, 2025 - 10:09 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ USDA Report: Recap for Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles & U.S. Planting

  The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and 2024 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting reports scheduled for release at noon ET on Monday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2025 (million bushels)
                                              USDA       USDA
                       Average     Range     Mar. 24    Dec. 2024
Corn                    8,195   8,060-8,500   8,352     12,074
Soybeans                1,895   1,823-1,949   1,845      3,100
Wheat                   1,220   1,169-1,252   1,089      1,570
****
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
                        Average     Range    USDA 2024
Corn                    94.165    90.4-96.6   90.594
Soybeans                83.760    82.5-85.5   87.050
All Wheat               46.392    45.4-47.0   46.079
Winter Wheat            33.851    33.3-34.3   33.390
Spring Wheat            10.454    10.0-11.1   10.625
Durum Wheat              2.055     1.9-2.3     2.064
WHEAT
General Comments:   All three markets closed lower again yesterday, with dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea regions still the main feature but with rains in the forecast for the Great Plains from Nebraska to the north this weekend.  The amounts and coverage of the new system does not look very impressive.  It is very dry in both areas although Kansas got a minimal amount of rain last week.  Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy.  Overall demand has been weak so the lack of rain hurting production potential is about to be important.  The trade is also worried about the potential for tariffs to be imposed in early April and the counter tariffs that would come back to US agriculture.  In addition, there are the stocks of grin in all positions report and the planting intentions report coming Monday to help keep trading subdued.  Wheat stocks are estimated at about 1.2 billion bushels.  Planted area is estimated by the trade at 46.5 million acres for All Wheat.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 524, 518, and 512 May, with resistance at 553, 563, and 575 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 547, 542, and 536 May, with resistance at 583, 598, and 604 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down.  Support is at 584, 576, and 570 May, and resistance is at 600, 610, and 626 May.
RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher before the USDA stocks in all positions report and the prospective plantings report coming on Monday.  There was more concern about the tariffs scheduled to be imposed in early April.  Prices remain cheap, but could develop into a trading range, and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now.  Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher.  Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down.  Support is at 1296, 1284 and 1272 May and resistance is at 1393, 1416, and 1427 May.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower again yesterday as traders prepared for the coming USDA stocks in all positions report and planting intentions report.  There was renewed talk that tariffs could damage agricultural exports starting in early April when the reciprocal tariffs will be announced.  President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed for all countries on a reciprocal basis starting in April.  The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time.  It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had light precipitation lately.  Mostly dry weather is likely this week.  Traders expect USDA to estimate planting intentions at near or above 94 million acres this season.  Stocks could be near 8.1 billion bushels.  Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 442, 434, and 433 May, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 484 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 351, 346, and 342 May, and resistance is at 365, 377, and 385 May.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher, with Soybean Oil the strongest part of the complex.  There was talk that the administration could approve the use of more bio diesel in blends this year.  Traders were getting ready for the USDA stocks in all positions report and the planting intentions report, with both due to be released on Monday.  There was also increasing talk of new tariffs coming in early April and the damage they could do to US agriculture.  South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less.  Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand.  The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets are stronger in South America.  The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be more than 75% done.  Soybeans planted area is estimated by the trade at 83.8 million acres and stocks in all positions are estimated at about 1.9 billion bushels.
Overnight News
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed  Support is at 998, 990 and 980 May, and resistance is at 1021, 1041, and 1051 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down.  Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 297.00, 301.00, and 304.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4270, 4220, and 4150 May, with resistance at 4450, 4460, and 4530 May.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were higher on ideas that prices are a little too cheap.  There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things.  Demand has not been good so far this month and was weaker than expected for February.  Chart trends are mixed.  Canola was higher again yesterday and continued to move away from the extreme lows set when China imposed tariffs on Canola and products a couple of weeks ago.  The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed in early April.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 587.00, 575.00, and 563.00 May, with resistance at 615.00, 617.00, and 630.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are up.  Support is at 4220, 4140, and 4070 June, with resistance at 4500, 4550, and 4600 June.
Midwest Weather Forecast  Heavy rain  Temperatures should average above normal.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 185,097 lots, or 7.20 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
May-25     3,868     3,894     3,859     3,889     3,868     3,878        10   127,820   186,343
Jul-25     3,891     3,919     3,886     3,914     3,894     3,905        11    28,260    94,728
Sep-25     3,922     3,947     3,915     3,941     3,924     3,932         8    22,463    69,051
Nov-25     3,911     3,920     3,900     3,914     3,908     3,909         1     3,119    34,313
Jan-26     3,919     3,923     3,907     3,921     3,914     3,916         2     1,347     6,201
Mar-26     3,926     3,933     3,907     3,927     3,921     3,921         0     2,088     1,709
Corn
Turnover: 554,095 lots, or 12.62 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open
                                                  Settle                                  Interest
May-25     2,264     2,272     2,259     2,261     2,260     2,265         5   356,563   1,131,722
Jul-25     2,308     2,313     2,297     2,299     2,299     2,304         5   140,008     713,331
Sep-25     2,317     2,326     2,311     2,313     2,315     2,317         2    32,843     237,965
Nov-25     2,261     2,267     2,253     2,257     2,258     2,261         3    13,964     150,190
Jan-26     2,250     2,253     2,242     2,243     2,245     2,247         2     2,315      15,999
Mar-26     2,262     2,265     2,253     2,253     2,255     2,259         4     8,402       9,215
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,752,240 lots, or 50.32 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open
                                                  Settle                                    Interest
May-25     2,831     2,840     2,809     2,813     2,822     2,826         4   1,054,314   1,486,764
Jul-25     2,830     2,833     2,806     2,807     2,817     2,820         3      59,828     390,280
Aug-25     2,940     2,957     2,933     2,935     2,932     2,949        17      28,741     161,556
Sep-25     2,970     2,970     2,939     2,942     2,942     2,952        10     547,756   1,795,382
Nov-25     2,977     2,990     2,966     2,968     2,969     2,978         9      16,995     238,046
Dec-25     2,964     2,973     2,957     2,959     2,958     2,965         7       3,124      83,872
Jan-26     2,945     2,952     2,934     2,937     2,937     2,944         7      36,225     227,056
Mar-26     2,832     2,836     2,825     2,829     2,827     2,830         3       5,257      41,961
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,339,019 lots, or 11.99 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                  Interest
Apr-25     9,228     9,380     9,228     9,348     9,150     9,320       170         130        84
May-25     8,964     9,128     8,952     9,088     8,866     9,058       192   1,117,540   430,958
Jun-25     8,656     8,812     8,656     8,788     8,590     8,760       170       4,238     8,278
Jul-25     8,500     8,650     8,500     8,638     8,432     8,602       170       1,134     2,108
Aug-25     8,386     8,524     8,386     8,524     8,312     8,468       156          88       674
Sep-25     8,332     8,466     8,314     8,454     8,240     8,404       164     203,111   186,145
Oct-25     8,322     8,404     8,322     8,404     8,204     8,366       162          67     1,009
Nov-25     8,296     8,378     8,296     8,378     8,172     8,346       174          68       610
Dec-25     8,262     8,360     8,262     8,360     8,148     8,328       180          44       207
Jan-26     8,204     8,364     8,204     8,360     8,154     8,316       162      12,478    19,622
Feb-26     8,258     8,350     8,248     8,342     8,130     8,308       178          81        87
Mar-26     8,210     8,384     8,172     8,332     8,120     8,322       202          40        42
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 569,619 lots, or 45.42 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
May-25     7,990     8,036     7,952     7,986     7,900     7,992        92   399,399   405,985
Jul-25     7,886     7,928     7,860     7,894     7,798     7,888        90     3,378    13,217
Aug-25     7,936     7,976     7,910     7,938     7,848     7,938        90     1,293     4,977
Sep-25     7,950     7,974     7,900     7,938     7,840     7,934        94   155,860   407,958
Nov-25     7,942     7,982     7,920     7,946     7,858     7,936        78       187     1,708
Dec-25     7,916     7,930     7,896     7,896     7,844     7,918        74        12       107
Jan-26     7,812     7,880     7,812     7,860     7,768     7,844        76     9,443    19,382
Mar-26     7,784     7,828     7,774     7,800     7,724     7,810        86        47       104
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  03-28-25 0623ET
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