Softs Report 03/27/2025

COTTON

General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday in slow trading before the USDA reports on Friday highlighting planting intentions for the coming crops.  Ideas are that the market has rallied well from the lows made a couple of weeks ago and could consolidate the gains for now.  Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation.  There are still reports of weaker demand potential from other buyers against an outlook for less US production in the coming year.

Overnight News:

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 64.80, 63.90, and 62.60 May, with resistance of 66.80, 67.80 and 68.20 May.

 

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 27

For the week ended Mar 20, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA

wk’s net chg                  total

in commitments             commitments      undlvd sales

this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr

upland cotton       84.4       41.6   10309.0   10804.7   4319.0   1009.2

pima cotton         19.9        0.0     374.3     270.0    111.9      1.0

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower again yesterday.  Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts but are trying to turn up.  The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose.  The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.

Overnight News:

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down.  Support is at 260.00, 238.00, and 230.00 May, with resistance at 289.00, 302.00, and 322.00 May.

COFFEE

General Comments:  Both markets closed lower yesterday after New York made new highs for the move in early trading as doubts about the production in Brazil continue.  Trends are up in New York, but May futures were unable t hold above 400.00 once again.  The lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam continue.  The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans and are hoping for higher prices..  Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.  The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year as it is an off year in the country’s biennial crop cycle.

Overnight News:  The ICO average price is 347.69 ct/lb.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up.  Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 354.00 May, and resistance is at 405.00, 408.00 and 414.00 May.  Trends in London are up.  Support is at 5280, 5230, and 5010 May, with resistance at 5630, 5740, and 5950 May.

 

SUGAR

General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday in part due to the Brazil weather.  There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and forecasts for more showers in the next couple of weeks and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.  Indian production is expected to be a disappointment this year.  Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are still around.  Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather.  Trends are turning down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.

Overnight News:

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down.  Support is at 1900, 1850, and 1810 May and resistance is at 1970, 2010, and 2030 May.  Trends in London are down.  Support is at 539.00, 535.00, and 524.00 May, with resistance at 553.00, 567.00, and 575.00 May.

COCOA

General Comments: New York and London closed mixed yesterday.  Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year.  Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far.  There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, and Ivory coast has already said that offers into the world market will be less this year.  Chart trends are mixed to down in both markets on the daily charts.  Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too little rain that has reduced yields.

Overnight News:

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down.  Support is at 7200, 6680, and 6670 May, with resistance at 8590, 8780, and 8900 May.  Trends in London are down.  Support is at 5600, 5290, and 4990 May, with resistance at 6500, 6870, and 7050 May.

 

2918 S Wentworth Ave 1st Floor, Chicago, IL 60616  |  (800) 769- 7021  |  (312) 264-4322 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale purchase of any securities or futures.

The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

 

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322