Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Grains Report 03/27/2025
DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Monday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2025 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Mar. 24 Dec. 2024
Corn 8,195 8,060-8,500 8,352 12,074
Soybeans 1,895 1,823-1,949 1,845 3,100
Wheat 1,220 1,169-1,252 1,089 1,570
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 8,255 1,949 1,227
Doane 8,104 1,896 1,246
Grain Cycles 8,060 1,870 1,214
Linn Group 8,128 1,855 1,176
Sid Love Consulting 8,311 1,917 1,177
Marex 8,500 1,880 1,190
Midland Research 8,105 1,925 1,250
Northstar Commodity 8,130 1,904 1,230
Ocean State Research 8,216 1,859 1,169
Prime Ag 8,200 1,900 1,250
Risk Mgmt Commodities 8,170 1,935 1,212
RJ O’Brien 8,187 1,903 1,247
StoneX 8,146 1,901 1,225
U.S. Commodities 8,250 1,905 1,250
Vantage RM 8,230 1,900 1,252
Zaner Ag Hedge 8,134 1,823 1,204
DJ Survey: 2025 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Monday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2024
Corn 94.165 90.4-96.6 90.594
Soybeans 83.760 82.5-85.5 87.050
All Wheat 46.392 45.4-47.0 46.079
Winter Wheat 33.851 33.3-34.3 33.390
Spring Wheat 10.454 10.0-11.1 10.625
Durum Wheat 2.055 1.9-2.3 2.064
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
Allendale 94.0 84.3 45.9 34.3 10.1 1.9
Doane 93.8 85.0 45.4 33.3 10.1 2.1
Grain Cycles 93.2 83.0 46.3 34.2 10.2 1.9
Linn Group 94.6 83.7 46.0 34.1 10.0 1.9
Sid Love Consulting 92.5 85.5 46.5 34.0 10.3 2.2
Marex 95.0 83.0 46.5 34.1 10.4 2.0
Midland Research 93.9 83.9 47.0 34.1 11.1 1.9
Midwest Market Solutions 95.5 84.0 46.0 33.4 10.3 2.3
Northstar Commodity 96.6 82.9 47.0 34.0 10.9 2.1
Ocean State Research 94.5 83.5 47.0 33.7 11.1 2.2
Prime Ag 94.0 83.5 47.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 93.7 84.2 46.2 33.5 10.6 2.1
RJ O’Brien 94.5 84.0 46.3 34.3 10.1 1.9
StoneX 90.4 84.0 45.9 33.4 10.4 2.1
U.S. Commodities 94.5 83.4 46.7
Vantage RM 95.5 82.5 46.3 33.5 10.6 2.2
Zaner Ag Hedge 94.7 83.5 46.8 33.9 10.8 2.1
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 27
For the week ended Mar 20, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 100.3 11.2 20899.6 18731.6 4627.5 972.3
hrw 61.0 2.0 5143.1 3614.1 1354.9 320.5
srw 17.5 7.7 3118.1 4297.0 654.5 191.8
hrs 41.4 0.0 6632.7 6356.0 1321.3 325.5
white -18.3 1.5 5669.6 3982.6 1232.4 111.1
durum -1.2 0.0 336.1 481.9 64.4 23.5
corn 1039.6 0.0 53060.5 42903.2 20041.1 1570.6
soybeans 338.5 -21.9 45760.1 40354.9 5704.0 273.5
soymeal 165.6 0.4 11342.5 10186.9 4313.4 111.2
soyoil 44.5 0.0 911.1 80.4 294.1 0.5
upland cotton 84.4 41.6 10309.0 10804.7 4319.0 1009.2
pima cotton 19.9 0.0 374.3 270.0 111.9 1.0
sorghum 11.2 0.0 1302.1 5024.3 132.5 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 39.8 11.8 19.0 22.8
rice 101.7 0.0 2593.0 2759.7 622.0 10.1
WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed lower again yesterday, with dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea regions still the main feature but with rains in the forecast for the Great Plains from Nebraska to the north this weekend. The amounts and coverage of the new system does not look very impressive. It is very dry in both areas although Kansas got a minimal amount of rain last week. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak so the lack of rain hurting production potential is about to be important. The trade is also worried about the potential for tariffs to be imposed in early April and the counter tariffs that would come back to the US agriculture. In addition, there are the stocks of grin in all positions report and the planting intentions report coming Monday to help keep trading subdued. Wheat stocks are estimated at about 1.2 billion bushels. Planted area is estimated by the trade at 46.5 million acres for All Wheat.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 530, 524, and 518 May, with resistance at 553, 563, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 561, 547, and 542 May, with resistance at 583, 598, and 604 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down. Support is at 585, 576, and 570 May, and resistance is at 600, 610, and 626 May.
RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed slightly lower yesterday, with trading slow before the USDA stocks in all positions report and the prospective plantings report coming on Monday. There was more concern about the tariffs scheduled to be imposed in early April. Prices remain cheap, but could develop into a trading range, and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down. Support is at 1296, 1284 and 1272 May and resistance is at 1393, 1416, and 1427 May.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower again yesterday as traders started to prepare for the coming USDA stocks in all positions report and planting intentions report. There was renewed talk that tariffs could damage agricultural exports starting in early April when the reciprocal tariffs will be announced. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed for all countries on a reciprocal basis starting in April. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had light precipitation lately. Mostly dry weather is likely this week. Traders expect USDA to estimate planting intentions at near or above 94 million acres this season. Stocks could be near 8.1 billion bushels. Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 442, 434, and 433 May, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 484 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 351, 346, and 342 May, and resistance is at 365, 377, and 385 May.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed narrowly mixed yesterday and Soybean Meal closed lower, but Soybean Oil closed higher. Traders were getting ready for the USDA stocks in all positions report and the planting intentions report, with both due to be released on Monday. There was also increasing talk of new tariffs coming in early April and the damage they could do to US agriculture. South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets are stronger in South America. The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be more than 75% done. Soybeans planted area is estimated by the trade at 83.8 million acres and stocks in all positions are estimated at about 1.9 billion bushels.
Overnight News
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down Support is at 990, 980 and 955 May, and resistance is at 1021, 1041, and 1051 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 310.00, 315.00, and 319.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4110, 4080, and 3990 May, with resistance at 4310, 4450, and 4460 May.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher on ideas that prices are a little too cheap. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand has not been good so far this month and was weaker than expected for February. Chart trends are mixed. Canola was higher again yesterday and continued to move away from the extreme lows set when China imposed tariffs on Canola and products a couple of weeks ago. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed in early April.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 575.00, 563.00, and 557.00 May, with resistance at 590.00, 600.00, and 615.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4220, 4140, and 4070 June, with resistance at 4370, 4500, and 4550 June.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Light precipitation. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1120.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1072.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 995.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 987.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 995.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1125.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1077.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1000.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 992.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1000.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1092.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1055.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,760.00 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 487.00 +06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4298)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 162,995 lots, or 6.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 3,878 3,887 3,854 3,864 3,889 3,868 -21 110,871 200,145
Jul-25 3,910 3,910 3,883 3,890 3,915 3,894 -21 29,016 93,052
Sep-25 3,937 3,939 3,912 3,919 3,942 3,924 -18 16,675 70,030
Nov-25 3,917 3,922 3,899 3,904 3,917 3,908 -9 4,445 34,356
Jan-26 3,921 3,925 3,907 3,908 3,922 3,914 -8 677 6,090
Mar-26 3,928 3,932 3,913 3,919 3,926 3,921 -5 1,311 1,700
Corn
Turnover: 671,860 lots, or 15.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,262 2,269 2,255 2,266 2,267 2,260 -7 425,101 1,163,432
Jul-25 2,301 2,309 2,293 2,306 2,307 2,299 -8 174,798 690,008
Sep-25 2,321 2,323 2,311 2,320 2,320 2,315 -5 42,083 238,167
Nov-25 2,263 2,266 2,251 2,263 2,269 2,258 -11 22,585 149,297
Jan-26 2,244 2,251 2,240 2,250 2,252 2,245 -7 2,857 15,677
Mar-26 2,255 2,263 2,249 2,260 2,262 2,255 -7 4,436 7,702
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,708,639 lots, or 48.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,824 2,837 2,806 2,826 2,842 2,822 -20 1,148,403 1,590,086
Jul-25 2,815 2,828 2,803 2,821 2,823 2,817 -6 65,101 385,970
Aug-25 2,933 2,946 2,919 2,940 2,942 2,932 -10 6,508 162,187
Sep-25 2,944 2,955 2,928 2,948 2,954 2,942 -12 432,196 1,733,875
Nov-25 2,963 2,980 2,955 2,974 2,980 2,969 -11 16,164 237,508
Dec-25 2,958 2,967 2,948 2,961 2,964 2,958 -6 3,552 83,869
Jan-26 2,938 2,948 2,926 2,942 2,944 2,937 -7 31,050 220,448
Mar-26 2,834 2,834 2,818 2,827 2,844 2,827 -17 5,665 40,982
Palm Oil
Turnover: 944,187 lots, or 82.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-25 9,186 9,192 9,082 9,184 9,146 9,150 4 152 147
May-25 8,888 8,908 8,806 8,886 8,838 8,866 28 810,656 396,311
Jun-25 8,598 8,626 8,548 8,604 8,570 8,590 20 2,016 7,632
Jul-25 8,426 8,464 8,398 8,446 8,396 8,432 36 500 1,833
Aug-25 8,300 8,342 8,280 8,330 8,258 8,312 54 81 677
Sep-25 8,218 8,278 8,198 8,258 8,176 8,240 64 126,128 189,683
Oct-25 8,178 8,228 8,170 8,210 8,152 8,204 52 29 1,013
Nov-25 8,150 8,192 8,148 8,192 8,120 8,172 52 36 625
Dec-25 8,100 8,186 8,100 8,172 8,100 8,148 48 25 205
Jan-26 8,122 8,182 8,106 8,168 8,084 8,154 70 4,551 16,358
Feb-26 8,100 8,146 8,100 8,142 8,064 8,130 66 9 50
Mar-26 8,102 8,130 8,102 8,130 8,058 8,120 62 4 28
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 367,800 lots, or 28.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 7,908 7,924 7,868 7,918 7,880 7,900 20 259,191 417,181
Jul-25 7,810 7,826 7,766 7,816 7,786 7,798 12 2,724 13,157
Aug-25 7,852 7,868 7,820 7,866 7,830 7,848 18 699 4,848
Sep-25 7,846 7,868 7,810 7,856 7,824 7,840 16 102,033 403,785
Nov-25 7,860 7,874 7,828 7,872 7,838 7,858 20 73 1,704
Dec-25 7,826 7,858 7,820 7,846 7,830 7,844 14 16 106
Jan-26 7,784 7,788 7,742 7,782 7,760 7,768 8 3,045 15,747
Mar-26 7,720 7,730 7,714 7,724 7,720 7,724 4 19 84
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322