Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Grains Report 03/26/2025
WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed lower again yesterday, with dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea region the main feature but with rains in the forecast for the Great Plains this weekend. The amounts and coverage of the new system does not look very impressive. It is very dry in both areas although Kansas got a minimal amount of rain last week. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak so the lack of rain hurting production potential is about to be important. The trade is also worried about the potential for tariffs to be imposed in early April and the counter tariffs that would come back to the US agriculture. In addition, there are the stocks of grin in all positions report and the planting intentions report coming Monday to help keep trading subdued. Wheat stocks are estimated at about 1.2 billion bushels. Planted area is estimated by the trade at 46.5 million acres for All Wheat.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 530, 524, and 518 May, with resistance at 553, 563, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 566, 561, and 547 May, with resistance at 583, 598, and 604 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down. Support is at 585, 576, and 570 May, and resistance is at 600, 610, and 626 May.
RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday, with trading slow before the USDA stocks in all positions report and the prospective plantings report coming on Monday. There was more concern about the tariffs scheduled to be imposed in early April. Prices remain cheap, but could develop into a trading range, and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice planted area is forecast to be near 2.7 million acres.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down. Support is at 1296, 1284 and 1272 May and resistance is at 1393, 1416, and 1427 May.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday as traders started to prepare for the coming USDA stocks in all positions report and planting intentions report. There was renewed talk that tariffs could damage agricultural exports starting in early April when the reciprocal tariffs will be announced. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed for all countries on a reciprocal basis starting in April. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had light precipitation lately. Mostly dry weather is likely this week. Traders expect USDA to estimate planting intentions at near or above 94 million acres this season. Stocks could be near 8.1 billion bushels. Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 455, 442, and 434 May, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 484 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 364, 359, and 351 May, and resistance is at 377, 3895, and 389 May.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed mixed yesterday, but Soybean Oil closed higher as it bounced one more day from recent lows. Traders were getting ready for the USDA stocks in all positions report and the planting intentions report, with both due to be released on Monday. There was also increasing talk of new tariffs coming in early April and the damage they could do to US agriculture. South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets are stronger in South America. The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be more than 75% done. Soybeans planted area is estimated by the trade at 83.8 million acres and stocks in all positions are estimated at about 1.9 billion bushels.
Overnight News
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down Support is at 990, 980 and 955 May, and resistance is at 1021, 1041, and 1051 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 310.00, 315.00, and 319.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4110, 4080, and 3990 May, with resistance at 4290, 4450, and 4460 May.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher on ideas that export demand could improve due to the Trump tariff wars. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand has not been good so far this month and was weaker than expected for February. Chart trends are mixed. Canola was higher yesterday and continued to move away from the extreme lows set when China imposed tariffs on Canola and products a couple of weeks ago. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed in early April.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 575.00, 563.00, and 557.00 May, with resistance at 587.00, 590.00, and 600.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4300, 4220, and 4140 June, with resistance at 4370, 4500, and 4550 June.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1110.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1065.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 985.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 975.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 982.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1115.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1070.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 990.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 980.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 987.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1075.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1042.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,700.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 481.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4278)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 202,327 lots, or 7.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 3,879 3,913 3,875 3,877 3,884 3,889 5 141,546 197,780
Jul-25 3,906 3,938 3,901 3,906 3,911 3,915 4 31,619 84,089
Sep-25 3,934 3,965 3,928 3,935 3,941 3,942 1 23,781 67,893
Nov-25 3,911 3,936 3,907 3,917 3,920 3,917 -3 3,728 33,885
Jan-26 3,916 3,941 3,913 3,920 3,923 3,922 -1 715 6,067
Mar-26 3,921 3,945 3,916 3,926 3,925 3,926 1 938 1,687
Corn
Turnover: 718,733 lots, or 16.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,268 2,277 2,256 2,262 2,271 2,267 -4 477,361 1,196,286
Jul-25 2,309 2,317 2,295 2,302 2,310 2,307 -3 161,652 656,060
Sep-25 2,322 2,330 2,310 2,316 2,326 2,320 -6 43,472 234,926
Nov-25 2,274 2,277 2,256 2,259 2,272 2,269 -3 25,964 150,114
Jan-26 2,259 2,261 2,243 2,248 2,257 2,252 -5 5,799 15,792
Mar-26 2,265 2,269 2,252 2,258 2,264 2,262 -2 4,485 7,480
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,343,776 lots, or 67.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,863 2,874 2,816 2,820 2,860 2,842 -18 1,570,447 1,736,626
Jul-25 2,833 2,844 2,806 2,811 2,832 2,823 -9 78,243 384,034
Aug-25 2,949 2,960 2,929 2,929 2,946 2,942 -4 10,509 162,242
Sep-25 2,957 2,969 2,937 2,939 2,954 2,954 0 597,661 1,700,528
Nov-25 2,980 2,994 2,963 2,963 2,979 2,980 1 17,654 236,085
Dec-25 2,961 2,978 2,955 2,955 2,969 2,964 -5 6,109 84,058
Jan-26 2,945 2,956 2,934 2,936 2,948 2,944 -4 51,792 217,246
Mar-26 2,854 2,862 2,828 2,831 2,853 2,844 -9 11,361 39,826
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,137,568 lots, or 99.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-25 9,086 9,204 9,086 9,138 9,168 9,146 -22 373 247
May-25 8,812 8,896 8,782 8,846 8,926 8,838 -88 1,010,225 406,743
Jun-25 8,550 8,622 8,526 8,570 8,636 8,570 -66 2,997 7,438
Jul-25 8,362 8,436 8,362 8,412 8,450 8,396 -54 736 1,780
Aug-25 8,230 8,294 8,226 8,282 8,330 8,258 -72 139 654
Sep-25 8,142 8,208 8,132 8,196 8,220 8,176 -44 118,195 184,331
Oct-25 8,132 8,168 8,114 8,168 8,160 8,152 -8 21 1,016
Nov-25 8,090 8,150 8,084 8,150 8,132 8,120 -12 31 622
Dec-25 8,088 8,126 8,068 8,126 8,112 8,100 -12 53 211
Jan-26 8,056 8,120 8,034 8,116 8,100 8,084 -16 4,781 14,804
Feb-26 8,034 8,100 8,030 8,100 8,082 8,064 -18 10 54
Mar-26 8,052 8,080 8,048 8,080 8,114 8,058 -56 7 30
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 415,553 lots, or 32.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 7,878 7,904 7,854 7,882 7,906 7,880 -26 294,687 439,928
Jul-25 7,778 7,810 7,770 7,784 7,802 7,786 -16 2,736 12,858
Aug-25 7,816 7,852 7,816 7,828 7,840 7,830 -10 1,100 4,710
Sep-25 7,816 7,846 7,800 7,818 7,836 7,824 -12 114,410 395,783
Nov-25 7,826 7,850 7,826 7,836 7,858 7,838 -20 36 1,709
Dec-25 7,822 7,838 7,822 7,838 7,852 7,830 -22 2 104
Jan-26 7,764 7,776 7,742 7,762 7,766 7,760 -6 2,547 14,766
Mar-26 7,696 7,732 7,694 7,714 7,718 7,720 2 35 84
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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