Weekly Ag Markets Update – 03/24/2025

Wheat: All three markets closed higher last week, but near the lows of the week with dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea region the main feature but with rains reported in Kansas one day last week and more in the forecast for the Great Plains in about a week.  The amounts and coverage of the new system does not look real impressive at this time.  It is very dry in both areas and Kansas reported 0.3 inch or less.  There are now fears that the US is entering a recession caused almost completely by the economic uncertainty of the policies of the Trump administration and consumer confidence is down.  Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy.  Overall demand has been weak so the lack of rain hurting production potential is about to be important.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

 

Corn: Corn closed higher last week in response to another strong week of export sales and on reports of strong ethanol demand.  The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and ideas are that domestic demand has been stronger as well.  President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed for all countries on a reciprocal basis starting in April.  The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time.  It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had precipitation lately.  Mostly dry weather is likely this week.  Traders expect USDA to estimate planting intentions at near 94 million acres this season.  Oats were higher.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and the products closed higher last week, and Soybean Meal was the weakest link as basis levels remained firm in Brazil due to big Chinese buying there in recent weeks and as Soybean Oil has had the better demand.  South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less.  Futures are weaker in response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front this week.  The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers, especially China, and could hurt demand from China and Canada.  Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand.  The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets have turned stronger in South America and hot and dry weather has returned to central and northern parts of Brazil.  The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be more than 75% done.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice: Rice closed a little higher on Friday, but a little lower for the week and made new lows for the move after a failed attempt to move higher.  Mexico has escaped tariffs for now and so it will not apply its own and this was a big relief to the Rice market.  Prices remain cheap, but could develop into a trading range, and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now.  Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher.  Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were lower last week on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation tied to reports of weaker demand.  There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things.  Demand has not been good so far this month and was weaker than expected for February.  Chart trends are mixed.  Canola was higher last week after a short covering and new buying rally that came after futures set extreme lows the previous week.  The selling is still in response to news that China has imposed prohibitive tariffs on Canola and the products.  The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed the previous week but was able to partially recover the losses last week.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton: Cotton was a little higher last week but closed near the lows of the week in liquidation trading and in response to weaker than expected export sales of around 101,000 bales.  Ideas are that the market has rallied well from the lows made a couple of weeks ago and could consolidate the gains for now.  Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation.  There are still reports of weaker demand potential from other buyers against an outlook for less US production in the coming year.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed higher last week after making new lows for the move earlier in the week.  Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts.  The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose.  The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York and London both closed a little higher last week as doubts about the production in Brazil continue.  Trends are still turning up in both markets.  The lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam continue.  The futures market has become very choppy.  Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.  Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain.  The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly.  Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue.  The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year as it is an off year in the country’s biennial crop cycle.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar: New York and London were higher last week as an early week rally led to choppy trading the rest of the week.  There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.  Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are still around.  Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather.  Trends turned up in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.  Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa: New York and London closed a little lower and at new lows for the move on the daily charts on Friday.  Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year.  Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far.  There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, but demand has been thought to be weakening.  Chart trends are mixed to down in both markets on the daily charts.  Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too little rain that has reduced yields.  Ivory Coast arrivals are still running 12.4% above a year ago.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

 

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