Softs Report 03/24/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher last week but closed near the lows of the week in liquidation trading and in response to weaker than expected export sales of around 101,000 bales. Ideas are that the market has rallied well from the lows made a couple of weeks ago and could consolidate the gains for now. Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation. There are still reports of weaker demand potential from other buyers against an outlook for less US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 65.20, 64.80, and 63.90 May, with resistance of 66.80, 67.80 and 68.20 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 321,481
: Positions :
: 31,792 102,886 80,632 109,334 97,917 83,907 26,719 305,666 308,154: 15,815 13,327
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 (Change in open interest: 1,350) :
: -2,321 -7,822 2,208 -1,396 6,967 2,922 838 1,412 2,191: -62 -840
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.9 32.0 25.1 34.0 30.5 26.1 8.3 95.1 95.9: 4.9 4.1
: Total Traders: 347 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 125 113 75 62 44 25 277 260:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week after making new lows for the move earlier in the week. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 238.00, 230.00, and 216.00 May, with resistance at 289.00, 302.00, and 322.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 16,577 :
: Positions :
: 4,839 8,343 488 427 50 2,799 1,273 11 1,969 763 4,070 :
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 :
: -136 -419 -1 81 -11 -349 175 -11 26 13 339 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.2 50.3 2.9 2.6 0.3 16.9 7.7 0.1 11.9 4.6 24.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 62 :
: 12 9 . . . 11 10 5 18 5 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London both closed a little higher last week as doubts about the production in Brazil continue. Trends are still turning up in both markets. The lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam continue. The futures market has become very choppy. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue. The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year as it is an off year in the country’s biennial crop cycle.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 348.00 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 354.00 May, and resistance is at 396.00, 402.00 and 408.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 5280, 5230, and 5010 May, with resistance at 5630, 5740, and 5950 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 219,221
: Positions :
: 44,454 8,036 70,855 46,486 122,428 48,248 11,404 210,044 212,724: 9,177 6,497
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 (Change in open interest: -3,160) :
: -408 441 -3,500 1,737 -306 -446 417 -2,617 -2,947: -543 -212
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.3 3.7 32.3 21.2 55.8 22.0 5.2 95.8 97.0: 4.2 3.0
: Total Traders: 372 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 133 60 114 87 116 46 17 307 276:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher last week as an early week rally led to choppy trading the rest of the week. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year. Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are still around. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather. Trends turned up in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 1940, 1900, and 1850 May and resistance is at 2030, 2060, and 2090 May. Trends in London are up. Support is at 551.00, 543.00, and 535.00 May, with resistance at 569.00, 575.00, and 580.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,036,250
: Positions :
: 92,782 157,902 259,322 340,013 502,350 267,900 63,608 960,018 983,181: 76,232 53,069
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 (Change in open interest: 30,428) :
: 19,114 -8,703 13,430 -5,626 34,893 -6,207 -8,832 20,711 30,788: 9,717 -360
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 15.2 25.0 32.8 48.5 25.9 6.1 92.6 94.9: 7.4 5.1
: Total Traders: 234 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 49 81 68 66 40 18 209 177:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower and at new lows for the move on the daily charts on Friday. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year. Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, but demand has been thought to be weakening. Chart trends are mixed to down in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too little rain that has reduced yields. Ivory Coast arrivals are still running 12.4% above a year ago.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 7200, 6680, and 6670 May, with resistance at 8780, 9180, and 9140 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 5600, 5290, and 4990 May, with resistance at 6870, 7050, and 7500 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 137,103
: Positions :
: 15,734 10,366 41,558 54,280 66,650 16,125 12,341 127,698 130,915: 9,405 6,189
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 (Change in open interest: 678) :
: 248 229 -1,651 3,053 1,263 -537 833 1,114 674: -436 4
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.5 7.6 30.3 39.6 48.6 11.8 9.0 93.1 95.5: 6.9 4.5
: Total Traders: 165 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 50 42 65 34 32 27 16 145 125:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322