Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We Kickoff the day with Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, and S&P Global Services PMI Flash at 8:45 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech 12:45 P.M., and Fed Barr Speech at 2:10 P.M.
The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales in February rose 4.2% from January to 4.26 Mil homes, following a 4.7% decline in January. Compared to a year ago, home sales were 50,000 homes or 1.2 less. The NAR’s chief economist noted that while mortgage rates have yet to decline significantly inventories are slowing building. The national median sales price for existing homes was up $388,400, up 3.8% from a year ago while the inventory of unsold homes rose 5.1% from January to 1.24 million, the equivalent of 3.5 million of supply.
South American Soil Moisture Boosts; Widespread Next 10 Days:
The forecast consistently widespread rainfall in Argentina, Paraguay, and beginning early next week. The GFS’s projected 8-day change in soil moisture in major crop areas. Key rainfalls in drier areas of Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, and Sao Paulo in central Brazil, but the outlooks have consistently projected near-normal rainfall there into April 5th. The forecast leans non-threatening. Active South American shower activity begins Monday. Precipitation accumulation March 24-31 is estimated in a range of 1.50-4.00”, which will cover most South American producing areas. This temporarily slows corn harvesting in Argentina, but lasting delays are not anticipated. Climate guidance maintains odds of dryness returning to Brazil in the longer term. This will be monitored. But in the near-term safrinha corn crop will improve.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Plains Forecast Warmer/Drier Next Two Weeks; Soil Moisture Recharged in Great Lakes/;E Midwest: Precipitation chances have been eliminated from southern and central Plains in the 11-15 day period, and temp guidance has trended warmer there. A stagnant pattern of favorably mild/wet conditions is set to persist across the Great Lakes & E Midwest – rainfall of 1-2” is probable in MO, IA, and all areas east of the Mississippi River March 28-April 4. Little/no rain is offered to US Plains. Moving forward, temps in TX, OK, and KS will exist consistently in the 70’s & 80’s . The EU model’s newly released 30-day precipitation anomaly forecast. This mirrors the two-week forecast and implies an easing of dryness across the principal dryness/drought across the HRW Belt, NE, and SD. Weather risks are rising, and in the long run , whether Plains drought expands or contracts between now and June is important.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Corrects; Market Lacks Conviction Ahead of Stocks/Seeding Data:
CBOT corn ended weak as May/July again failed at their respective 20-day moving averages. Ag Resources (ARC) doubts the recently established range can be broken next week. The nature of US corn in the world market and strong ethanol grind support a widening of July’s premium to December into early summer. Ukrainian fob premiums are firm od $1.40 over. Argentine basis remains perched at $.95 over despite rapid harvesting. Both ate above US Gulf offers. Managed funds liquidated another 39,000 contracts ending Tuesday. Fund length now sits at 107,000 contracts, the lowest since December. Tariffs remain a concern and are bearish in the long run, but a large Brazilian crop is needed to slow US corn export demand beyond June. Be prepared for volatility. Weather issues are needed to sustains rallies, but Brazilian rainfall and the coverage of Central US and Mexican droughts should be monitored. A range of $4.60-$4.90 July is forecast nearby. In the long term, it all depends on US corn seeding intentions. A seeding total above 85 Mil would produce a bearish longer term trend as US corn stocks swell above 2,100-2,300 Mil Bu if US corn yield surpasses 181 BPA.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Seedings Report & Weather Sets Tone for Speculation This Week. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/24/2025
We Kickoff the day with Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, and S&P Global Services PMI Flash at 8:45 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Bostic Speech 12:45 P.M., and Fed Barr Speech at 2:10 P.M.
The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales in February rose 4.2% from January to 4.26 Mil homes, following a 4.7% decline in January. Compared to a year ago, home sales were 50,000 homes or 1.2 less. The NAR’s chief economist noted that while mortgage rates have yet to decline significantly inventories are slowing building. The national median sales price for existing homes was up $388,400, up 3.8% from a year ago while the inventory of unsold homes rose 5.1% from January to 1.24 million, the equivalent of 3.5 million of supply.
South American Soil Moisture Boosts; Widespread Next 10 Days:
The forecast consistently widespread rainfall in Argentina, Paraguay, and beginning early next week. The GFS’s projected 8-day change in soil moisture in major crop areas. Key rainfalls in drier areas of Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, and Sao Paulo in central Brazil, but the outlooks have consistently projected near-normal rainfall there into April 5th. The forecast leans non-threatening. Active South American shower activity begins Monday. Precipitation accumulation March 24-31 is estimated in a range of 1.50-4.00”, which will cover most South American producing areas. This temporarily slows corn harvesting in Argentina, but lasting delays are not anticipated. Climate guidance maintains odds of dryness returning to Brazil in the longer term. This will be monitored. But in the near-term safrinha corn crop will improve.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Plains Forecast Warmer/Drier Next Two Weeks; Soil Moisture Recharged in Great Lakes/;E Midwest: Precipitation chances have been eliminated from southern and central Plains in the 11-15 day period, and temp guidance has trended warmer there. A stagnant pattern of favorably mild/wet conditions is set to persist across the Great Lakes & E Midwest – rainfall of 1-2” is probable in MO, IA, and all areas east of the Mississippi River March 28-April 4. Little/no rain is offered to US Plains. Moving forward, temps in TX, OK, and KS will exist consistently in the 70’s & 80’s . The EU model’s newly released 30-day precipitation anomaly forecast. This mirrors the two-week forecast and implies an easing of dryness across the principal dryness/drought across the HRW Belt, NE, and SD. Weather risks are rising, and in the long run , whether Plains drought expands or contracts between now and June is important.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Corrects; Market Lacks Conviction Ahead of Stocks/Seeding Data:
CBOT corn ended weak as May/July again failed at their respective 20-day moving averages. Ag Resources (ARC) doubts the recently established range can be broken next week. The nature of US corn in the world market and strong ethanol grind support a widening of July’s premium to December into early summer. Ukrainian fob premiums are firm od $1.40 over. Argentine basis remains perched at $.95 over despite rapid harvesting. Both ate above US Gulf offers. Managed funds liquidated another 39,000 contracts ending Tuesday. Fund length now sits at 107,000 contracts, the lowest since December. Tariffs remain a concern and are bearish in the long run, but a large Brazilian crop is needed to slow US corn export demand beyond June. Be prepared for volatility. Weather issues are needed to sustains rallies, but Brazilian rainfall and the coverage of Central US and Mexican droughts should be monitored. A range of $4.60-$4.90 July is forecast nearby. In the long term, it all depends on US corn seeding intentions. A seeding total above 85 Mil would produce a bearish longer term trend as US corn stocks swell above 2,100-2,300 Mil Bu if US corn yield surpasses 181 BPA.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn