There’s an old saying that if March comes in like a lamb it will go out like a lion, and if it comes in like a lion it will go out like a lamb. That is in reference to weather where the lambs are nice calming weather and lions are the nasty type. Of course, in market terms, March came in like a bear, with the grains, hogs and cotton all falling apart in the first week. The market has since rebounded or at least stopped the bleeding. However, does this March saying apply to the markets? If it does, it implies strength in the grains as we head into the March Intentions and Grains Stocks reports. Of course, to get are true “out like a bull” scenario, we are going to need some help from the USDA, as we head into an April 2 tariff deadline right in the first of April.
The corn market saw a more sideways trend this week, as May had a range of 15 cents and closed with a 5 ¾ cent gain. New crop December was unchanged since last Friday as the week’s range was just 7 ¾ cents. Ethanol production continues to be strong as EIA data showed ethanol output back up 43,000 barrels per day to 1.105 million bpd in the week of 3/14. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw, down 801,000 barrels to 26.575 million barrels. The weekly Export Sales report showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.497 MMT sold during the week ending on March 13. That brought the total export commitments to 52.031 MMT, which is 84% of USDA’s full year export forecast and still outpacing average of 83% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options trimming another 39,27 contracts from their net long position as of March 18, taking their net long to just 107,270 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex saw marginal strength on the week, with all three exchanges showing slight nearby gains. Chicago posted a 1 ¼ cent (0.22%) gain over the course of the week. Kansas City posted a 2 ¾ cent gain (0.47%) in the May contract. MPLS futures saw a 3 ¼ cent uptick (0.54%) in the May contract since last Friday. State Crop Progress reports showed winter wheat ratings in Kansas down 2% to 48% gd/ex and Texas steady at 28%. Export Sales data had a total of 248,849 MT in net cancellations for US wheat business during the week of 3/13, a MY low. That took export sale commitments to 21.026 MMT, which is now 93% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 99% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 3,256 contracts to their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of March 18 to 80,668 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 46,663 contracts, a reduction of 2,059 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans had another week of pressure, with the May contract slipping back 6 ¼ cents (-0.62%) on a 17 ¾ cent weekly range. November had a 21 ¼ cent range, closing the week with a 10 ¼ loss (1.01%). May Soybean meal was adding pressure, down $5.60/ton (1.83%), with bean oil back up 42 points (1.01%) since last Friday. NOPA data for February was disappointing as reported this week, at just 177.87 mbu. That was below the analysts’ estimates and a 4.47% decline from last year. Bean oil stocks were still down 11.06% from a year ago at 1.5 billion lbs. This week’s Export Sales report pegged 2024/25 soybean business at just 352,580 MT in the week of 3/13. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 45.422 MMT. That is 91% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, now lagging the 5-year average pace by 1 percentage point. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net short of 22,005 contracts on Tuesday, a backing off an increase of 6,461 contracts from the previous week.
Live cattle found more strength this week despite some profit taking ahead of the Friday close, with April up $3.77 (1.86%). The cash market continues to climb, with southern deals locked in at $210 and Northern trade at $212-216, both up anywhere from $6-9 on the week. Feeders were up $4.50 in the March contract (1.60%) on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up another $5.06 week/week to $287.78. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw gains gain this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened to $15.83/cwt. Choice was up $7.18 (2.3%) to $325.45, while Select was $3.29 (1.1%) to $309.62. Weekly beef production totaled 486.7 million lbs this week, back down 4.4% from last week and 2.9% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 2.4%, as slaughter is 6.3% lower. Cattle on Feed data indicated February placements at 1.554 million head, down 17.78% from last year. Feb marketings were 8.92% lower yr/yr at 1.663 million head. March 1 on feed data came in at 11.577 million head, down 2.2% compared to the level last year. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding another 7,359 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 120,175 contracts. Managed money was extending their record net long to 31,197 contracts by March 18 in feeder cattle futures and options.
Hogs had a back and forth trade this week but closed just 50 cents below the close from last Friday in the April contract. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 54 cents this week at $89.20 as of March 19. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down just 52 cents this week (-0.5%). The belly was again the leader this week, to the downside, down $4.67, with the loin and butt reported higher. Pork production slipped 3.4% from last week and was 3.5% below the same week at 524.1 million. Year to date pork production is down 4%, as slaughter is 4.3% lower. Pork export business was slow again this week, totaling just 18,069 MT in the week of March 13, a calendar year low. Shipments totaled 32,851 MT, back down from last year. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 1,138 contracts to their net long position as of 3/18 to a net position of 56,709 contracts.
Cotton futures gave back much of the strength from the previous week, losing 210 points this week (-3.12). Export Sales data tallied cotton sales at just 101,058 RB in the week of March 13. Shipments were backing off the previous MY high to 351,003 RB in that week. Commitments are now at 10.225 million RB, which is 99% of the new USDA forecast, now matching the 5-year average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was up another 87 points this week, to 54.63 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders cutting back another 6,793 contracts from their previously net short position as of March 18 to 69,617 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. Weekly updates to the Crop Progress report don’t start until April. On Tuesday, NASS will release their monthly Cold Storage report. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday morning. The weekly Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning, with Feeder cattle futures and options expiring on Thursday’s close. NASS will also release their quarterly Hogs & Pigs report on Thursday afternoon.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have come into a trading range since finding a bottom in the first week of March, with Stochastics stuck in neutral. That ‘bottom’ came with a spike of the 61.8% Fib retracement of $10.04 ¾ (held) and round number support of $10 (also held). The market hasn’t gotten too far from that area on a bounce to the 100-day moving average resistance ($10.26). Off the Dec and March low, there is a trend line at $10.05 ¼, which has been holding. MACD is still bearish, but momentum is threatening a shift. If November beans ever want to buy acres, getting above the Bollinger midline at $10.18 and the 100-day moving average would be a start. Conversely, if the $10 area fails, look for a retest of the low at $9.61.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Out Like a Bull? Ag Marketing Report 03/24/2025
There’s an old saying that if March comes in like a lamb it will go out like a lion, and if it comes in like a lion it will go out like a lamb. That is in reference to weather where the lambs are nice calming weather and lions are the nasty type. Of course, in market terms, March came in like a bear, with the grains, hogs and cotton all falling apart in the first week. The market has since rebounded or at least stopped the bleeding. However, does this March saying apply to the markets? If it does, it implies strength in the grains as we head into the March Intentions and Grains Stocks reports. Of course, to get are true “out like a bull” scenario, we are going to need some help from the USDA, as we head into an April 2 tariff deadline right in the first of April.
The corn market saw a more sideways trend this week, as May had a range of 15 cents and closed with a 5 ¾ cent gain. New crop December was unchanged since last Friday as the week’s range was just 7 ¾ cents. Ethanol production continues to be strong as EIA data showed ethanol output back up 43,000 barrels per day to 1.105 million bpd in the week of 3/14. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw, down 801,000 barrels to 26.575 million barrels. The weekly Export Sales report showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.497 MMT sold during the week ending on March 13. That brought the total export commitments to 52.031 MMT, which is 84% of USDA’s full year export forecast and still outpacing average of 83% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options trimming another 39,27 contracts from their net long position as of March 18, taking their net long to just 107,270 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex saw marginal strength on the week, with all three exchanges showing slight nearby gains. Chicago posted a 1 ¼ cent (0.22%) gain over the course of the week. Kansas City posted a 2 ¾ cent gain (0.47%) in the May contract. MPLS futures saw a 3 ¼ cent uptick (0.54%) in the May contract since last Friday. State Crop Progress reports showed winter wheat ratings in Kansas down 2% to 48% gd/ex and Texas steady at 28%. Export Sales data had a total of 248,849 MT in net cancellations for US wheat business during the week of 3/13, a MY low. That took export sale commitments to 21.026 MMT, which is now 93% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 99% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 3,256 contracts to their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of March 18 to 80,668 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 46,663 contracts, a reduction of 2,059 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans had another week of pressure, with the May contract slipping back 6 ¼ cents (-0.62%) on a 17 ¾ cent weekly range. November had a 21 ¼ cent range, closing the week with a 10 ¼ loss (1.01%). May Soybean meal was adding pressure, down $5.60/ton (1.83%), with bean oil back up 42 points (1.01%) since last Friday. NOPA data for February was disappointing as reported this week, at just 177.87 mbu. That was below the analysts’ estimates and a 4.47% decline from last year. Bean oil stocks were still down 11.06% from a year ago at 1.5 billion lbs. This week’s Export Sales report pegged 2024/25 soybean business at just 352,580 MT in the week of 3/13. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 45.422 MMT. That is 91% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, now lagging the 5-year average pace by 1 percentage point. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net short of 22,005 contracts on Tuesday, a backing off an increase of 6,461 contracts from the previous week.
Live cattle found more strength this week despite some profit taking ahead of the Friday close, with April up $3.77 (1.86%). The cash market continues to climb, with southern deals locked in at $210 and Northern trade at $212-216, both up anywhere from $6-9 on the week. Feeders were up $4.50 in the March contract (1.60%) on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up another $5.06 week/week to $287.78. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw gains gain this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened to $15.83/cwt. Choice was up $7.18 (2.3%) to $325.45, while Select was $3.29 (1.1%) to $309.62. Weekly beef production totaled 486.7 million lbs this week, back down 4.4% from last week and 2.9% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 2.4%, as slaughter is 6.3% lower. Cattle on Feed data indicated February placements at 1.554 million head, down 17.78% from last year. Feb marketings were 8.92% lower yr/yr at 1.663 million head. March 1 on feed data came in at 11.577 million head, down 2.2% compared to the level last year. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding another 7,359 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 120,175 contracts. Managed money was extending their record net long to 31,197 contracts by March 18 in feeder cattle futures and options.
Hogs had a back and forth trade this week but closed just 50 cents below the close from last Friday in the April contract. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 54 cents this week at $89.20 as of March 19. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down just 52 cents this week (-0.5%). The belly was again the leader this week, to the downside, down $4.67, with the loin and butt reported higher. Pork production slipped 3.4% from last week and was 3.5% below the same week at 524.1 million. Year to date pork production is down 4%, as slaughter is 4.3% lower. Pork export business was slow again this week, totaling just 18,069 MT in the week of March 13, a calendar year low. Shipments totaled 32,851 MT, back down from last year. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 1,138 contracts to their net long position as of 3/18 to a net position of 56,709 contracts.
Cotton futures gave back much of the strength from the previous week, losing 210 points this week (-3.12). Export Sales data tallied cotton sales at just 101,058 RB in the week of March 13. Shipments were backing off the previous MY high to 351,003 RB in that week. Commitments are now at 10.225 million RB, which is 99% of the new USDA forecast, now matching the 5-year average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was up another 87 points this week, to 54.63 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders cutting back another 6,793 contracts from their previously net short position as of March 18 to 69,617 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. Weekly updates to the Crop Progress report don’t start until April. On Tuesday, NASS will release their monthly Cold Storage report. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday morning. The weekly Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning, with Feeder cattle futures and options expiring on Thursday’s close. NASS will also release their quarterly Hogs & Pigs report on Thursday afternoon.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have come into a trading range since finding a bottom in the first week of March, with Stochastics stuck in neutral. That ‘bottom’ came with a spike of the 61.8% Fib retracement of $10.04 ¾ (held) and round number support of $10 (also held). The market hasn’t gotten too far from that area on a bounce to the 100-day moving average resistance ($10.26). Off the Dec and March low, there is a trend line at $10.05 ¼, which has been holding. MACD is still bearish, but momentum is threatening a shift. If November beans ever want to buy acres, getting above the Bollinger midline at $10.18 and the 100-day moving average would be a start. Conversely, if the $10 area fails, look for a retest of the low at $9.61.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.