Grains Report 03/24/2025

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher last week, but near the lows of the week with dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea region the main feature but with rains reported in Kansas one day last week and more in the forecast for the Great Plains in about a week. The amounts and coverage of the new system does not look real impressive at this time. It is very dry in both areas and Kansas reported 0.3 inch or less. There are now fears that the US is entering a recession caused almost completely by the economic uncertainty of the policies of the Trump administration and consumer confidence is down. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak so the lack of rain hurting production potential is about to be important.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 545, 530, and 524 May, with resistance at 575, 579, and 585 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 582, 577, and 566 May, with resistance at 619, 625, and 642 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 585, 576, and 570 May, and resistance is at 626, 633, and 645 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 548,716
: Positions :
: 56,692 152,509 187,269 116,593 90,616 150,991 84,004 511,544 514,397: 37,172 34,318
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 (Change in open interest: 15,516) :
: -998 -1,400 11,126 2,399 7,393 3,704 -1,060 16,231 16,058: -715 -542
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.3 27.8 34.1 21.2 16.5 27.5 15.3 93.2 93.7: 6.8 6.3
: Total Traders: 396 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 115 125 98 95 47 32 316 304:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 276,341
: Positions :
: 20,375 68,218 63,010 78,168 90,547 94,311 32,689 255,863 254,464: 20,478 21,877
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 (Change in open interest: 2,427) :
: -1,391 -4,452 5,342 -4,385 2,633 2,301 -538 1,868 2,984: 560 -557
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.4 24.7 22.8 28.3 32.8 34.1 11.8 92.6 92.1: 7.4 7.9
: Total Traders: 244 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 48 58 62 73 79 36 21 194 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 88,556 :
: Positions :
: 41,447 28,398 4,062 0 390 14,578 37,144 5,354 5,983 1,484 3,913 :
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 :
: -1,420 3,619 -297 -165 -124 4,302 1,226 -570 805 -1,756 365 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.8 32.1 4.6 0.0 0.4 16.5 41.9 6.0 6.8 1.7 4.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 120 :
: 50 38 7 0 5 13 25 10 9 7 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher on Friday, but a little lower for the week and made new lows for the move after a failed attempt to move higher. Mexico has escaped tariffs for now and so it will not apply its own and this was a big relief to the Rice market. Prices remain cheap, but could develop into a trading range, and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down. Support is at 1296, 1284 and 1272 May and resistance is at 1393, 1416, and 1427 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 13,491 :
: Positions :
: 7,648 3,883 0 229 0 381 5,511 0 2,013 678 1,217 :
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 :
: 178 320 0 11 0 152 -90 -176 25 120 210 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.7 28.8 0.0 1.7 0.0 2.8 40.9 0.0 14.9 5.0 9.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 76 :
: 23 18 0 . 0 . 21 0 15 6 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher last week in response to another strong week of export sales and on reports of strong ethanol demand. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and ideas are that domestic demand has been stronger as well. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed for all countries on a reciprocal basis starting in April. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had precipitation lately. Mostly dry weather is likely this week. Traders expect USDA to estimate planting intentions at near 94 million acres this season. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 462, 455, and 442 May, and resistance is at 477, 484, and 492 May. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 371, 364, and 359 May, and resistance is at 385, 389, and 396 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,372,079
: Positions :
: 194,213 171,856 837,402 663,979 1,014,911 496,929 115,130 2,192,523 2,139,300: 179,555 232,778
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 (Change in open interest: 3,490) :
: -16,261 14,806 30,236 -11,007 -52,564 1,301 5,718 4,269 -1,804: -778 5,295
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.2 7.2 35.3 28.0 42.8 20.9 4.9 92.4 90.2: 7.6 9.8
: Total Traders: 837 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 137 136 200 387 434 52 27 687 701:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher last week, and Soybean Meal was the weakest link as basis levels remained firm in Brazil due to big Chinese buying there in recent weeks and as Soybean Oil has had the better demand. South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less. Futures are weaker in response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front this week. The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers, especially China, and could hurt demand from China and Canada. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets have turned stronger in South America and hot and dry weather has returned to central and northern parts of
Brazil. The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be more than 75% done.
Overnight News
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down Support is at 990, 980 and 955 May, and resistance is at 1021, 1041, and 1051 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 310.00, 315.00, and 319.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4110, 4080, and 3990 May, with resistance at 4290, 4450, and 4460 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,038,123
: Positions :
: 78,759 119,892 314,149 378,209 443,361 220,748 80,888 991,865 958,290: 46,258 79,833
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 (Change in open interest: 24,145) :
: -1,876 -2,007 23,514 -1,547 -899 3,391 4,276 23,481 24,883: 665 -738
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.6 11.5 30.3 36.4 42.7 21.3 7.8 95.5 92.3: 4.5 7.7
: Total Traders: 581 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 100 151 181 205 240 46 30 465 498:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 631,798
: Positions :
: 54,121 117,610 141,366 235,840 304,518 168,794 38,374 600,121 601,868: 31,677 29,930
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 (Change in open interest: 19,244) :
: 2,413 8,757 7,234 5,203 1,583 3,984 720 18,834 18,294: 410 950
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.6 18.6 22.4 37.3 48.2 26.7 6.1 95.0 95.3: 5.0 4.7
: Total Traders: 337 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 79 102 104 94 43 25 280 255:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 614,473
: Positions :
: 53,974 116,124 158,336 216,694 263,431 131,738 45,233 560,742 583,124: 53,731 31,349
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 (Change in open interest: 6,421) :
: 3,225 -9,018 12,624 -9,190 1,703 -387 3,328 6,272 8,637: 149 -2,217
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 18.9 25.8 35.3 42.9 21.4 7.4 91.3 94.9: 8.7 5.1
: Total Traders: 340 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 85 90 128 115 36 23 281 264:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower last week on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation tied to reports of weaker demand. Ideas of weaker export demand pushed futures lower today. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand has not been good so far this month and was weaker than expected for February. Chart trends are mixed. Canola was higher last week after a short covering and new buying rally that came after futures set extreme lows the previous week. The selling is still in response to news that China has imposed prohibitive tariffs on Canola and the products. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed the previous week but was able to partially recover the losses last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 557.00, 552.00, and 546.00 May, with resistance at 590.00, 600.00, and 615.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4320, 4220, and 4140 June, with resistance at 4500, 4550, and 4610 June.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 20,981 :
: Positions :
: 16,191 8,546 378 2,938 696 440 761 0 1,756 6,490 1,520 :
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 :
: 692 932 0 -40 80 0 0 0 60 -140 360 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 77.2 40.7 1.8 14.0 3.3 2.1 3.6 0.0 8.4 30.9 7.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :
: 7 7 . 6 4 . . 0 4 8 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 18, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 247,860 :
: Positions :
: 132,877 111,607 14,694 7,670 2,284 50,153 79,427 21,126 9,235 7,952 14,442 :
: Changes from: March 11, 2025 :
: 23,116 -30,138 -466 -337 245 -27,686 28,890 2,469 1,875 -919 -580 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.6 45.0 5.9 3.1 0.9 20.2 32.0 8.5 3.7 3.2 5.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 299 :
: 67 61 5 6 6 32 62 27 57 41 43 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1062.50 — Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1062.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 990.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 980.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 985.00 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1067.50 — Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1067.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 995.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 985.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 990.00 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1082.50 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1032.50 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,700.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 478.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.435)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 169,120 lots, or 6.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 3,884 3,896 3,865 3,888 3,878 3,879 1 125,395 201,175
Jul-25 3,921 3,926 3,895 3,918 3,909 3,909 0 22,952 71,278
Sep-25 3,938 3,954 3,923 3,946 3,937 3,937 0 15,692 63,630
Nov-25 3,919 3,929 3,903 3,925 3,916 3,913 -3 2,839 33,915
Jan-26 3,926 3,935 3,909 3,928 3,920 3,919 -1 806 5,960
Mar-26 3,916 3,936 3,905 3,928 3,916 3,918 2 1,436 1,465
Corn
Turnover: 704,596 lots, or 16.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,288 2,293 2,267 2,271 2,284 2,279 -5 500,440 1,228,281
Jul-25 2,326 2,331 2,305 2,311 2,323 2,315 -8 127,530 596,545
Sep-25 2,350 2,350 2,322 2,326 2,336 2,332 -4 42,874 229,894
Nov-25 2,285 2,290 2,268 2,272 2,283 2,276 -7 25,479 146,982
Jan-26 2,267 2,271 2,252 2,256 2,266 2,260 -6 4,584 15,272
Mar-26 2,276 2,280 2,264 2,265 2,276 2,272 -4 3,689 6,951
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,826,385 lots, or 5.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,860 2,862 2,834 2,858 2,864 2,848 -16 1,209,601 1,753,383
Jul-25 2,828 2,832 2,807 2,828 2,839 2,821 -18 61,771 378,905
Aug-25 2,943 2,947 2,921 2,946 2,951 2,934 -17 10,700 162,576
Sep-25 2,953 2,959 2,931 2,955 2,961 2,945 -16 471,726 1,702,316
Nov-25 2,968 2,983 2,957 2,979 2,986 2,969 -17 18,695 236,514
Dec-25 2,968 2,976 2,957 2,974 2,980 2,968 -12 5,750 84,572
Jan-26 2,952 2,959 2,939 2,953 2,963 2,949 -14 41,750 212,013
Mar-26 2,840 2,857 2,833 2,856 2,848 2,842 -6 6,392 35,317
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,093,473 lots, or 97.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-25 9,392 9,396 9,106 9,236 9,414 9,220 -194 1,474 636
May-25 9,052 9,056 8,952 8,988 9,088 8,998 -90 978,488 411,035
Jun-25 8,744 8,758 8,680 8,708 8,790 8,712 -78 3,351 6,645
Jul-25 8,548 8,550 8,490 8,514 8,588 8,520 -68 444 1,763
Aug-25 8,252 8,418 8,050 8,370 8,444 8,342 -102 229 606
Sep-25 8,314 8,318 8,248 8,264 8,348 8,278 -70 104,417 167,054
Oct-25 8,250 8,250 8,208 8,216 8,288 8,232 -56 49 984
Nov-25 8,228 8,228 8,176 8,188 8,266 8,202 -64 59 616
Dec-25 8,200 8,202 8,160 8,180 8,238 8,194 -44 40 218
Jan-26 8,198 8,200 8,134 8,152 8,218 8,160 -58 4,898 10,235
Feb-26 8,166 8,166 8,136 8,142 8,210 8,162 -48 15 52
Mar-26 8,160 8,160 8,130 8,140 8,180 8,134 -46 9 18
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 491,474 lots, or 38.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 8,002 8,008 7,902 7,940 8,022 7,940 -82 368,929 493,801
Jul-25 7,880 7,882 7,788 7,826 7,888 7,820 -68 4,219 12,982
Aug-25 7,918 7,932 7,826 7,864 7,926 7,866 -60 1,193 4,461
Sep-25 7,920 7,920 7,818 7,858 7,918 7,854 -64 113,489 381,131
Nov-25 7,924 7,924 7,834 7,866 7,928 7,880 -48 97 1,711
Dec-25 7,870 7,890 7,846 7,852 7,910 7,858 -52 7 102
Jan-26 7,836 7,838 7,756 7,792 7,842 7,792 -50 3,510 13,251
Mar-26 7,736 7,748 7,708 7,748 7,772 7,722 -50 30 59
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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