Grains Report 03/21/2025

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets closed lower again, with dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea region the main feature but with rains reported in Kansas yesterday and more in the forecast for the Great Plains in about 10 days. It is very dry in both areas and Kansas reported 0.3 inch or less. There are now fears that the US is entering a recession caused almost completely by the economic uncertainty of the policies of the Trump administration and consumer confidence is down. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak so the lack of rain hurting production potential is about to be important.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 545, 530, and 524 May, with resistance at 575, 579, and 585 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 586, 577, and 566 May, with resistance at 619, 625, and 642 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 585, 576, and 570 May, and resistance is at 626, 633, and 645 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher in nearby months, but a little lower in deferred months yesterday and made new lows for the move in early trading. Mexico has escaped tariffs for now and so it will not apply its own and this was a big relief to the Rice market. Prices remain cheap and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1296, 1284 and 1272 May and resistance is at 1393, 1416, and 1427 May

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday in response to another strong week of export sales and on reports of strong ethanol demand. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed for all countries on a reciprocal basis starting in April. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. It is dry in western US growing areas, but most of the Midwest has had precipitation lately. Traders expect USDA to estimate planting intentions at near 94 million acres this season. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 462, 455, and 442 May, and resistance is at 477, 484, and 492 May. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 371, 364, and 359 May, and resistance is at 381, 385, and 389 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed mostly higher yesterday, and Soybean Meal closed a little lower as basis levels remained firm in Brazil due to big Chinese buying there in recent weeeks. South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina perhaps 49 million tons. Futures are weaker in response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front this week. The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers, especially China, and could hurt demand from China and Canada. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets have turned stronger in South America and hot and dry weather has returned to central and northern parts of the country. The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be more than 70% done.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down Support is at 990, 980 and 955 May, and resistance is at 1021, 1041, and 1051 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 310.00, 315.00, and 319.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4110, 4080, and 3990 May, with resistance at 4290, 4450, and 4460 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower today on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation before the weekend. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand from China has not been good but reports indicate that demand from India has been strong in February and provided support. Chart trends are turning up. Canola was lower yesterday on some new selling after a short covering rally. The selling is still in response to news that China has imposed prohibitive tariffs on Canola and the products. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed last week but was able to partially recover the losses.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 557.00, 552.00, and 546.00 May, with resistance at 590.00, 600.00, and 615.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4320, 4220, and 4140 June, with resistance at 4500, 4550, and 4610 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1137.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1080.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1005.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 995.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1142.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1085.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1010.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1000.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1100.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1065.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,780.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 485.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 225,620 lots, or 8.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 3,855 3,906 3,848 3,887 3,881 3,878 -3 171,038 194,783
Jul-25 3,871 3,934 3,871 3,917 3,910 3,909 -1 25,839 69,093
Sep-25 3,911 3,962 3,903 3,941 3,934 3,937 3 21,439 60,918
Nov-25 3,901 3,940 3,899 3,917 3,935 3,916 -19 4,444 33,738
Jan-26 3,910 3,944 3,902 3,921 3,938 3,920 -18 1,666 5,842
Mar-26 3,905 3,937 3,898 3,917 3,943 3,916 -27 1,194 1,292
Corn
Turnover: 589,484 lots, or 13.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,280 2,293 2,277 2,289 2,276 2,284 8 412,878 1,248,769
Jul-25 2,322 2,332 2,317 2,326 2,315 2,323 8 114,911 578,642
Sep-25 2,325 2,343 2,325 2,340 2,327 2,336 9 32,142 226,155
Nov-25 2,277 2,289 2,275 2,286 2,273 2,283 10 21,052 144,892
Jan-26 2,265 2,270 2,263 2,267 2,262 2,266 4 3,677 14,156
Mar-26 2,275 2,280 2,272 2,276 2,273 2,276 3 4,824 6,335
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,043,949 lots, or 5.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,850 2,883 2,845 2,861 2,897 2,864 -33 1,448,365 1,776,189
Jul-25 2,848 2,855 2,825 2,833 2,869 2,839 -30 63,572 377,863
Aug-25 2,946 2,966 2,940 2,944 2,975 2,951 -24 11,875 163,069
Sep-25 2,958 2,978 2,950 2,955 2,985 2,961 -24 434,387 1,702,675
Nov-25 2,998 3,001 2,975 2,980 3,012 2,986 -26 18,870 236,657
Dec-25 2,977 2,992 2,971 2,973 2,998 2,980 -18 6,096 84,626
Jan-26 2,963 2,974 2,953 2,954 2,976 2,963 -13 50,749 209,201
Mar-26 2,861 2,864 2,833 2,840 2,883 2,848 -35 10,035 34,665
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,250,738 lots, or 11.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-25 9,484 9,484 9,334 9,408 9,362 9,414 52 775 1,015
May-25 9,126 9,168 9,006 9,088 9,062 9,088 26 1,141,883 446,077
Jun-25 8,800 8,860 8,716 8,788 8,784 8,790 6 4,145 6,363
Jul-25 8,588 8,650 8,526 8,590 8,578 8,588 10 440 1,754
Aug-25 8,476 8,506 8,390 8,450 8,444 8,444 0 101 564
Sep-25 8,350 8,406 8,288 8,342 8,326 8,348 22 100,082 164,562
Oct-25 8,318 8,318 8,282 8,284 8,228 8,288 60 7 991
Nov-25 8,304 8,316 8,238 8,262 8,242 8,266 24 29 605
Dec-25 8,230 8,266 8,198 8,254 8,228 8,238 10 32 219
Jan-26 8,226 8,260 8,156 8,220 8,190 8,218 28 3,238 9,160
Feb-26 8,242 8,242 8,194 8,194 8,164 8,210 46 5 46
Mar-26 8,180 8,180 8,180 8,180 8,176 8,180 4 1 12
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 440,080 lots, or 35.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 8,022 8,072 7,990 8,022 8,032 8,022 -10 341,922 522,943
Jul-25 7,880 7,940 7,862 7,890 7,892 7,888 -4 2,010 13,217
Aug-25 7,920 7,974 7,900 7,922 7,936 7,926 -10 1,311 4,331
Sep-25 7,916 7,970 7,890 7,922 7,926 7,918 -8 92,040 373,902
Nov-25 7,928 7,972 7,910 7,928 7,950 7,928 -22 39 1,701
Dec-25 7,902 7,920 7,902 7,920 7,922 7,910 -12 2 101
Jan-26 7,838 7,880 7,818 7,846 7,850 7,842 -8 2,724 12,808
Mar-26 7,768 7,792 7,762 7,774 7,768 7,772 4 32 33
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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