Grains Report 03/20/2025

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 20
For the week ended Mar 13, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat -248.8 491.1 20833.9 18392.1 4955.9 961.1
hrw -65.8 177.8 5116.8 3486.4 1360.3 318.5
srw 8.6 48.7 3100.7 4289.8 731.4 184.1
hrs -125.7 191.0 6591.3 6278.8 1466.6 325.5
white -76.8 70.1 5687.8 3855.2 1332.0 109.6
durum 10.9 3.5 337.4 481.9 65.7 23.5
corn 1496.7 61.4 52031.4 41696.7 20653.3 1570.6
soybeans 352.6 0.1 45421.6 40091.0 6287.6 295.4
soymeal 182.2 0.0 11176.8 10059.6 4394.2 110.8
soyoil 34.2 0.0 866.6 74.5 278.6 0.4
upland cotton 101.1 57.9 10224.6 10706.6 4628.0 967.6
pima cotton 26.5 0.0 354.4 256.5 103.8 1.0
sorghum 28.2 0.0 1290.9 4946.4 123.5 0.0
barley 0.1 0.0 39.8 16.6 19.2 22.8
rice 23.1 0.0 2491.3 2697.7 600.2 10.1

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets closed lower, with dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea region the main feature vut with rains in the forecast for the Great Plains in about 10 days. It is very dry in both areas. There are now fears that the US is entering a recession caused almost completely by the economic uncertainty of the policies of the Trump administration and consumer confidence is down. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak so he lack of rain hurting production potential is about to be important.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 545, 530, and 524 May, with resistance at 575, 579, and 585 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 586, 577, and 566 May, with resistance at 619, 625, and 642 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 585, 576, and 570 May, and resistance is at 626, 633, and 645 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday and made new lows for the move. Mexico has escaped tariffs for now and so it will not apply its own and this was a big relief to the Rice market. Prices remain cheap and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1296, 1284 and 1272 May and resistance is at 1416, 1427, and 1455 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed yesterday after a choppy session. Nearby prices were a little higher and deferred prices were a little lower. Short-term rallies are still possible. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed for all countries on a reciprocal basis starting in April. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. It is dry in western US growing areas, but most of the Midwest has had precipitation lately. Traders expect USDA to estimate planting intentions at near 94 million acres this season. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 455, 442, and 434 May, and resistance is at 465, 469, and 477 May. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 364, 359, and 351 May, and resistance is at 376, 378, and 381 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower yesterday, and Soybean Oil closed higher on a stronger US Dollar. South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina perhaps 49 million tons. Futures are weaker in response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front this week. The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers, especially China, and could hurt demand from China and Canada. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets have turned stronger in South America and hot and dry weather has returned to central and northern parts of the country. The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be more than 70% done.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down Support is at 990, 980 and 955 May, and resistance is at 1021, 1041, and 1051 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 310.00, 315.00, and 319.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4110, 4080, and 3990 May, with resistance at 4290, 4450, and 4460 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher today along with Dalian futures. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand from China has not been good but reports indicate that demand from India has been strong in February and provided support. Chart trends are turning up. Canola was higher yesterday on follow through buying from lows set last week in response to news that China has imposed prohibitive tariffs on Canola and the products. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed last week but was able to partially recover the losses.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 557.00, 552.00, and 546.00 May, with resistance at 590.00, 600.00, and 615.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4320, 4220, and 4140 June, with resistance at 4500, 4550, and 4610 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1140.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1085.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1012.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1005.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1145.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1090.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1017.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1010.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1105.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1070.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,820.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Taded
Mar 486.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4208)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 254,709 lots, or 9.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 3,906 3,917 3,848 3,854 3,931 3,881 -50 187,714 203,431
Jul-25 3,934 3,946 3,879 3,883 3,962 3,910 -52 33,710 67,498
Sep-25 3,962 3,969 3,905 3,909 3,982 3,934 -48 23,182 55,388
Nov-25 3,954 3,962 3,902 3,904 3,971 3,935 -36 5,403 33,237
Jan-26 3,961 3,968 3,908 3,910 3,980 3,938 -42 2,160 5,516
Mar-26 3,968 3,970 3,904 3,905 3,982 3,943 -39 2,540 1,137
Corn
Turnover: 715,265 lots, or 16.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,282 2,284 2,268 2,280 2,285 2,276 -9 525,250 1,269,882
Jul-25 2,320 2,322 2,307 2,319 2,320 2,315 -5 120,748 558,947
Sep-25 2,333 2,335 2,320 2,329 2,333 2,327 -6 37,099 224,817
Nov-25 2,277 2,280 2,269 2,277 2,277 2,273 -4 23,314 139,577
Jan-26 2,264 2,266 2,256 2,264 2,264 2,262 -2 4,167 13,216
Mar-26 2,272 2,278 2,267 2,275 2,272 2,273 1 4,687 5,262
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,284,356 lots, or 9.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,905 2,935 2,854 2,855 2,905 2,897 -8 2,348,030 1,819,976
Jul-25 2,873 2,899 2,838 2,838 2,879 2,869 -10 96,583 370,581
Aug-25 2,984 3,000 2,947 2,950 2,985 2,975 -10 20,805 163,753
Sep-25 2,991 3,009 2,957 2,960 2,995 2,985 -10 690,069 1,681,038
Nov-25 3,018 3,034 2,982 2,987 3,019 3,012 -7 41,762 236,541
Dec-25 3,004 3,021 2,977 2,981 3,009 2,998 -11 7,531 84,620
Jan-26 2,985 2,999 2,959 2,964 2,985 2,976 -9 60,124 202,995
Mar-26 2,892 2,900 2,855 2,860 2,894 2,883 -11 19,452 31,940
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,429,316 lots, or 12.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-25 9,252 9,530 9,224 9,488 9,360 9,362 2 1,927 1,325
May-25 8,966 9,180 8,924 9,152 9,068 9,062 -6 1,263,596 497,168
Jun-25 8,706 8,876 8,660 8,844 8,794 8,784 -10 6,027 6,305
Jul-25 8,518 8,674 8,470 8,632 8,598 8,578 -20 611 1,751
Aug-25 8,376 8,538 8,350 8,488 8,448 8,444 -4 81 516
Sep-25 8,288 8,438 8,228 8,388 8,348 8,326 -22 154,355 164,773
Oct-25 8,226 8,372 8,190 8,372 8,318 8,228 -90 23 994
Nov-25 8,214 8,354 8,166 8,306 8,300 8,242 -58 46 601
Dec-25 8,178 8,312 8,142 8,274 8,268 8,228 -40 50 222
Jan-26 8,150 8,292 8,110 8,254 8,190 8,190 0 2,584 8,263
Feb-26 8,136 8,224 8,130 8,224 8,188 8,164 -24 10 48
Mar-26 8,140 8,230 8,126 8,230 8,164 8,176 12 6 12
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 563,348 lots, or 45.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 8,070 8,086 7,982 8,044 8,094 8,032 -62 430,489 550,671
Jul-25 7,918 7,940 7,850 7,898 7,950 7,892 -58 2,044 13,456
Aug-25 7,954 7,978 7,890 7,940 8,000 7,936 -64 1,659 4,172
Sep-25 7,946 7,972 7,880 7,932 7,982 7,926 -56 124,957 374,633
Nov-25 7,956 7,976 7,900 7,944 8,000 7,950 -50 150 1,691
Dec-25 7,934 7,952 7,880 7,928 7,974 7,922 -52 18 102
Jan-26 7,852 7,884 7,806 7,848 7,892 7,850 -42 4,020 12,009
Mar-26 7,778 7,788 7,728 7,788 7,824 7,768 -56 11 20
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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