Softs Report 03/19/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday in liquidation trading. Ideas are that the market has rallied well from the lows and could consolidate the gains for now. Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year, but its Cotton demand is expected to stay soft mainly due to the tariffs. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for less US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 65.40, 64.80, and 63.90 May, with resistance of 67.80, 68.20 and 69.20 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower again yesterday. Florida production was a little higher, but US total production was a little less in the recent USDA production report. Reports that tariffs on Mexico could be eased and that could allow for more imports as Mexico has rescinded threats to put tariffs on its imports and exports. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little looser. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 243.00, 230.00, and 216.00 May, with resistance at 289.00, 302.00, and 322.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher as the US Dollar bounced from recent lows and as doubts about the production in Brazil. Continue. Trends are still turning up in both markets. The lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam continue. The futures market has become very choppy. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue. The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year as it is an off-year in the country’s biennial crop cycle.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 346.70 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 354.00 May, and resistance is at 396.00, 402.00 and 408.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 5280, 5230, and 5010 May, with resistance at 5630, 5740, and 5950 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were mostly higher yesterday, with deferred months leading the way in part on the weaker US Dollar. Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are around. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather. Trends turned up in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting smaller crops of cane. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 1940, 1900, and 1850 May and resistance is at 2030, 2060, and 2090 May. Trends in London are up. Support is at 552.00, 543.00, and 535.00 May, with resistance at 569.00, 575.00, and 580.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher on some short covering, but still near recent lows on the daily charts. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year. Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, but demand has been thought to be weakening. Chart trends are mixed to down in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too little rain that has reduced yields. Ivory Coast arrivals are still running 12.4% above a year ago.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 7760, 6680, and 6670 May, with resistance at 8780, 9180, and 9140 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 5600, 5290, and 4990 May, with resistance at 6870, 7050, and 7500 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322