Grains Report 03/19/2025

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets closed mixed, with Chicago SRW a little lower but the other markets a little higher yesterday, with dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea region the main feature. It is very dry in the Great Plains and in the Black Sea region. There are now fears that the US is entering a recession caused almost completely by the economic uncertainty of the policies of the Trump administration and consumer confidence is down. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak so he lack of rain hurting production potential is about to be important.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 545, 530, and 524 May, with resistance at 575, 579, and 585 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 599, 586, and 577 May, with resistance at 619, 625, and 642 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 585, 576, and 570 May, and resistance is at 626, 633, and 645 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher yesterday after a slow and choppy session. Mexico has escaped tariffs for now and so it will not apply its own and this was a big relief to the Rice market. Prices remain cheap and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1332, 1296 and 1284 May and resistance is at 1416, 1427, and 1455 May

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday after a choppy session. Short-term rallies are still possible. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed for all countries on a reciprocal basis starting in April. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. It is dry in western US growing areas, but most of the Midwest has had precipitation lately. Traders expect USDA to estimate planting intentions at near 94 million acres this season. Oats were a little lower and made new lows for the move on some long liquidation.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 455, 442, and 434 May, and resistance is at 465, 469, and 477 May. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 364, 359, and 351 May, and resistance is at 376, 378, and 381 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower yesterday, and Soybean Oil closed higher on a stronger US Dollar. South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina perhaps 49 million tons. Futures are weaker in response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front this week. The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers, especially China, and could hurt demand from China and Canada. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets have turned stronger in South America and hot and dry weather has returned to central and northern parts of the country. The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be more than 70% done.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down Support is at 990, 980 and 955 May, and resistance is at 1021, 1041, and 1051 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 310.00, 315.00, and 319.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4110, 4080, and 3990 May, with resistance at 4290, 4450, and 4460 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were much lower today. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand from China has not been good but reports indicate that demand from India has been strong in February and provided support. Chart trends are turning up. Canola was higher yesterday on follow through buying from lows set last week in response to news that China has imposed prohibitive tariffs on Canola and the products. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed last week but was able to partially recover the losses.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 557.00, 552.00, and 546.00 May, with resistance at 590.00, 600.00, and 615.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4320, 4220, and 4140 June, with resistance at 4500, 4550, and 4610 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1132.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1075.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1005.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 997.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1137.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1080.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1010.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1002.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1100.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1062.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,780.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 483.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4358)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 194,789 lots, or .77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 3,933 3,946 3,912 3,917 3,965 3,931 -34 138,437 196,611
Jul-25 3,962 3,978 3,942 3,946 3,993 3,962 -31 28,929 62,161
Sep-25 3,997 3,997 3,965 3,970 4,014 3,982 -32 19,139 49,206
Nov-25 3,967 3,979 3,957 3,962 3,989 3,971 -18 5,071 32,291
Jan-26 3,988 3,988 3,966 3,970 3,998 3,980 -18 1,635 5,011
Mar-26 3,981 3,993 3,970 3,972 3,999 3,982 -17 1,578 890
Corn
Turnover: 763,962 lots, or 17.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,292 2,294 2,279 2,284 2,291 2,285 -6 556,257 1,263,000
Jul-25 2,329 2,329 2,315 2,323 2,325 2,320 -5 138,617 532,444
Sep-25 2,337 2,340 2,328 2,335 2,339 2,333 -6 38,438 222,913
Nov-25 2,278 2,281 2,275 2,276 2,281 2,277 -4 21,284 134,469
Jan-26 2,266 2,267 2,260 2,263 2,267 2,264 -3 2,612 13,203
Mar-26 2,274 2,276 2,268 2,273 2,273 2,272 -1 6,754 4,690
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,153,271 lots, or 63.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 2,907 2,924 2,880 2,909 2,903 2,905 2 1,529,830 1,839,880
Jul-25 2,881 2,896 2,856 2,876 2,873 2,879 6 85,221 363,769
Aug-25 2,992 3,001 2,967 2,987 2,989 2,985 -4 11,065 165,403
Sep-25 3,002 3,010 2,977 2,997 2,999 2,995 -4 430,260 1,645,984
Nov-25 3,021 3,034 3,001 3,021 3,024 3,019 -5 22,024 238,617
Dec-25 3,011 3,021 2,994 3,007 3,021 3,009 -12 7,948 84,512
Jan-26 2,991 2,996 2,971 2,988 2,999 2,985 -14 54,355 195,204
Mar-26 2,892 2,904 2,884 2,890 2,923 2,894 -29 12,568 25,959
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,238,508 lots, or 11.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-25 9,300 9,420 9,212 9,242 9,224 9,360 136 6,849 1,624
May-25 9,116 9,148 8,930 8,942 9,008 9,068 60 1,096,737 436,324
Jun-25 8,830 8,872 8,670 8,686 8,778 8,794 16 3,667 5,620
Jul-25 8,650 8,668 8,486 8,492 8,592 8,598 6 442 1,688
Aug-25 8,486 8,514 8,350 8,358 8,434 8,448 14 49 482
Sep-25 8,396 8,422 8,244 8,254 8,350 8,348 -2 126,396 166,792
Oct-25 8,338 8,378 8,222 8,226 8,320 8,318 -2 37 997
Nov-25 8,294 8,328 8,178 8,180 8,284 8,300 16 778 598
Dec-25 8,254 8,302 8,146 8,146 8,254 8,268 14 789 214
Jan-26 8,274 8,280 8,118 8,124 8,226 8,190 -36 2,745 7,674
Feb-26 8,234 8,242 8,132 8,136 8,248 8,188 -60 12 49
Mar-26 8,206 8,222 8,102 8,116 8,186 8,164 -22 7 11
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 513,143 lots, or 41.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-25 8,108 8,138 8,036 8,042 8,066 8,094 28 408,560 565,264
Jul-25 7,972 7,990 7,898 7,900 7,918 7,950 32 2,512 13,569
Aug-25 8,000 8,028 7,938 7,940 7,954 8,000 46 1,695 4,016
Sep-25 8,000 8,024 7,930 7,932 7,948 7,982 34 96,921 370,658
Nov-25 8,008 8,028 7,946 7,948 7,964 8,000 36 137 1,684
Dec-25 7,988 7,988 7,960 7,960 7,940 7,974 34 5 109
Jan-26 7,926 7,926 7,840 7,840 7,864 7,892 28 3,304 11,696
Mar-26 7,850 7,856 7,804 7,804 7,806 7,824 18 9 15
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322