Softs Report 03/17/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week in recovery trading. Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year, but its Cotton demand is expected to stay soft mainly due to the tariffs. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for less US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 65.40, 64.80, and 63.90 May, with resistance of 67.60, 68.20 and 69.20 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 11, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 320,130
: Positions :
: 34,113 110,708 78,425 110,730 90,950 80,985 25,881 304,253 305,963: 15,877 14,167
: Changes from: March 4, 2025 (Change in open interest: -9,985) :
: -5,498 -7,374 1,722 -5,542 -2,477 -304 -1,281 -9,622 -9,410: -363 -575
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.7 34.6 24.5 34.6 28.4 25.3 8.1 95.0 95.6: 5.0 4.4
: Total Traders: 348 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 125 100 75 59 44 26 276 248:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week and at new lows for the move despite narrowly mixed US production data from USDA. Florida production was a little higher, but US total production was a little less. Reports that tariffs on Mexico could be eased and that could allow for more imports as Mexico has rescinded threats to put tariffs on its imports and exports. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little looser. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 255.00, 255.00, and 243.00 May, with resistance at 289.00, 302.00, and 322.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 11, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 16,441 :
: Positions :
: 4,976 8,762 489 346 61 3,148 1,098 22 1,943 751 3,731 :
: Changes from: March 4, 2025 :
: 236 -242 -9 3 0 -67 110 14 37 47 114 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 30.3 53.3 3.0 2.1 0.4 19.1 6.7 0.1 11.8 4.6 22.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 12 8 . . . 11 8 4 17 6 9 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a littl lower and London closed a little higher in consolidation trading as doubts about the production in Brazil and the lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam continue. The futures market has become very choppy. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue. The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year as it is an off-year in the country’s biennial crop cycle.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 341.05 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 354.00 May, and resistance is at 383.00, 396.00 and 402.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 5280, 5230, and 5010 May, with resistance at 5630, 5740, and 5950 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 11, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 222,380
: Positions :
: 44,863 7,594 74,355 44,750 122,734 48,693 10,988 212,661 215,671: 9,720 6,709
: Changes from: March 4, 2025 (Change in open interest: 3,515) :
: -3,159 -1,377 4,388 3,716 205 -757 978 4,188 4,194: -674 -679
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.2 3.4 33.4 20.1 55.2 21.9 4.9 95.6 97.0: 4.4 3.0
: Total Traders: 368 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 133 54 108 87 116 46 18 307 265:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday. Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are around. Traders are worried about more Mexican Sugar making it into the world market due to the potential for tariffs from the US. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather. Trends are down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting smaller crops of cane. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 1850, 1830, and 1780 May and resistance is at 1940, 2000, and 2030 May. Trends in London. Support is at 524.00, 520.00, and 513.00 May, with resistance at 540.00, 550.00, and 553.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 11, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,005,822
: Positions :
: 73,668 166,605 245,892 345,639 467,457 274,108 72,440 939,306 952,393: 66,515 53,428
: Changes from: March 4, 2025 (Change in open interest: -12,505) :
: -897 11,639 -10,314 11,068 -1,919 -16,259 -4,069 -16,402 -4,662: 3,897 -7,843
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.3 16.6 24.4 34.4 46.5 27.3 7.2 93.4 94.7: 6.6 5.3
: Total Traders: 235 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 55 81 67 63 40 17 205 179:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on continued reports on firming cash prices in the world market. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year. Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, but demand has been weakening. Chart trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. Overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7760, 6680, and 6670 May, with resistance at 8780, 9180, and 9140 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 5600, 5290, and 4990 May, with resistance at 6870, 7050, and 7500 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 11, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 136,425
: Positions :
: 15,486 10,137 43,209 51,227 65,387 16,662 11,507 126,584 130,240: 9,842 6,185
: Changes from: March 4, 2025 (Change in open interest: 2,434) :
: -402 -384 113 3,232 2,177 -495 28 2,447 1,935: -13 499
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.4 7.4 31.7 37.5 47.9 12.2 8.4 92.8 95.5: 7.2 4.5
: Total Traders: 159 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 37 63 35 31 27 13 143 119:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322