For the last week, my son has come home from school trying to think of new ways to trap some Leprechauns. Half the time it ends up being dad make shifting some sort of trade he has in his head. To this date, we’ve been unsuccessful. While I haven’t had the heart to tell him the odds of catching these things are next to zero, he keeps reminding me that we need to find some luck. Sometime the market is all about luck such as a drought somewhere important that is not your back yard. Other times, the luck is not on your side, like a tariff that makes your product less competitive.
Corn closed out the May slipping back 10 ¾ cents on the week, as December was down 3 ¼ cents from last Friday. More tariff riffs with US duties on steel and aluminum imports and retaliatory action by the EU on corn for April put some pressure on the market. USDA made no changes to the US balance sheet in their update on Tuesday, with stocks at 1.54 bbu. The world carryout was down 1.37 MMT, mainly due to revisions from the previous crop in South American. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production back down 31,000 barrels per day to 1.062 million bpd in the week of 3/7. Stocks of ethanol wee back up 87,000 barrels to 27.376 million barrels. Export Sales data indicated 2024/25 corn bookings at 967,348 MT for the week ending on March 6. That took export commitments to 50.535 MMT, which is 81% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 80%. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money in corn futures and options slashing another 73,211 contracts from their net long position as of March 11, taking their net long to 146,541 contracts by Tuesday.
Wheat bounced back this week across each of the three markets. Chicago May was back up 5 3/4 cents (1.04%) on the week. MPLS May was 9 cents (1.52%) higher than last Friday. May Kansas City led the charge, with a 21 ¼ cent gain (3.76%). Much of that came as drier weather is forecast across much of the southern Plains. State crop ratings from Monday were down 2% in KS to 52% gd/ex, with TX down 6% to 28%. The USDA balance sheet showed a total of 25 mbu of corn added to the US balance sheet to 819 mbu, with world stocks up 2.52 MMT at 260.08 MMT. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export bookings improving to 783,416 MT during the week of 3/6, the second largest this MY. That took export sale commitments to 21.274 MMT, which is now 94% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 98% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting back 4,987 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of March 11 to 77,412 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 48,722 contracts, an addition of another 9,440 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans were weaker this week with May slipping 9 cents lower and November down 7 ½ cents. Much of the weakness came following President Trump’s implementation of tariffs on steel and aluminum and retaliatory tariff on bean by the EU. May meal futures were up by $1.50 (0.49%), with bean oil down another 183 points (-4.21%) since last Friday. USDA left their US balance sheet unchanged on Tuesday, with stocks at 380 mbu. World stocks were cut back another 2.93 MMT to 121.41 MMT on crush increases for Chian and Argentina. Thursday’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at just 751,651 MT in the week of 3/6. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 45.069 MMT. That is 91% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, matching the average pace. Commitment of Traders data tallied spec traders in soybean futures and options at a net short of 15,544 contracts on Tuesday, a backing off 19,943 contracts from the previous week.
Live cattle continued to push higher this week, helped by a stronger cash market, as April was up another $2.90 (1.45%). Cash trade rallied to $200-203 in the South this week, as Northern trade came in later at $205-206, up $4-5 on the week. Feeders were up $5.00 in the March contract (1.81%) on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $8.95 week/week to $282.72. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw stronger action this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $11.94/cwt. Choice was up $3.37 (1.1%) to $318.27, while Select was $0.53 (0.2%) to $306.330. Weekly beef production totaled 511.9 million lbs this week, up 1.4% from last week and the same week last year. Year to date pork production is down 2.3%, as slaughter is 6.4% lower. USDA’s Export Sales report showed beef bookings in the week of 3/6 at 14,331 MT. Shipments were tallied at a 5-week high of 15,930 MT. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding back 2,348 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 112,816 contracts. Managed money was back at a record net long of 30,184 contracts by March 11
Hogs found tried to continue higher this week but fell back and closed down 72 cents on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down 44 cents this week at $89.74 as of March 12. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down 98 cents this week (-1%). The belly was again the leader this week, to the downside, down $12.67, with the picnic and ham reported higher. Pork production was up 3.7% from last week and 2.9% above the same week last year at 543.7 million. Year to date pork production is down 3.9%, as slaughter is 4.2% lower. Export Sales data from USDA showed a total of just 20,262 MT of pork sold in the week ending on 3/6, a calendar year low for sales. Shipments were 33,570 MT, and back up from the week prior. Commitment of Traders data showed specs trimming back another 1,909 contracts from their net long position as of 3/11 to a net position of 55,571 contracts.
Cotton futures saw some short covering this week, with May up 130 points (1.97%). USDA’s monthly update to the balance sheet on Tuesday saw things left unchanged at 4.9 million bales. Cotton Ginnings data showed 14.124 million RB of cotton ginned by the first of March. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales at 271,814 RB of cotton sold in the week of March 6. Shipments were at a MY high 403,461 RB in that week. Commitments are now at 10.124 million RB, which is 98% of the new USDA forecast, now 1% ahead of the normal sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up 188 points this week, to 53.76 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money spec traders cutting back 3,547 contracts from their previously record net short position as of March 11 to 76,410 contacts.
Market Watch
Next week starts out normally, with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. NOPA crush data will also be released on Monday morning. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday morning, with the Fed Meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday and a rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. Most are expecting to see rates unchanged this month. The USDA Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning. On Friday, NASS will release the monthly Cattle on Feed Report. April serial grain options will also expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn is on the ground floor, or at least found the floor the elevator was headed for. The low last week at $4.41 ½ held with the 38.2% Fib retracement resistance off that at $4.56 met this week. The 60-day exponential moving average at $4.56 ¼ also held things this week. After the Stochastics buy signal, the market has shifted more sideways, possibly consolidating ahead of the Intentions report later this month. It appears there is a bear pennant or flag forming off the drop. Pushing past the $4.56 area could hint at a test of the $4.60-$4.65 area.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
It’s All About Luck. Ag Marketing Report 03/17/2025
For the last week, my son has come home from school trying to think of new ways to trap some Leprechauns. Half the time it ends up being dad make shifting some sort of trade he has in his head. To this date, we’ve been unsuccessful. While I haven’t had the heart to tell him the odds of catching these things are next to zero, he keeps reminding me that we need to find some luck. Sometime the market is all about luck such as a drought somewhere important that is not your back yard. Other times, the luck is not on your side, like a tariff that makes your product less competitive.
Corn closed out the May slipping back 10 ¾ cents on the week, as December was down 3 ¼ cents from last Friday. More tariff riffs with US duties on steel and aluminum imports and retaliatory action by the EU on corn for April put some pressure on the market. USDA made no changes to the US balance sheet in their update on Tuesday, with stocks at 1.54 bbu. The world carryout was down 1.37 MMT, mainly due to revisions from the previous crop in South American. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production back down 31,000 barrels per day to 1.062 million bpd in the week of 3/7. Stocks of ethanol wee back up 87,000 barrels to 27.376 million barrels. Export Sales data indicated 2024/25 corn bookings at 967,348 MT for the week ending on March 6. That took export commitments to 50.535 MMT, which is 81% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 80%. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money in corn futures and options slashing another 73,211 contracts from their net long position as of March 11, taking their net long to 146,541 contracts by Tuesday.
Wheat bounced back this week across each of the three markets. Chicago May was back up 5 3/4 cents (1.04%) on the week. MPLS May was 9 cents (1.52%) higher than last Friday. May Kansas City led the charge, with a 21 ¼ cent gain (3.76%). Much of that came as drier weather is forecast across much of the southern Plains. State crop ratings from Monday were down 2% in KS to 52% gd/ex, with TX down 6% to 28%. The USDA balance sheet showed a total of 25 mbu of corn added to the US balance sheet to 819 mbu, with world stocks up 2.52 MMT at 260.08 MMT. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export bookings improving to 783,416 MT during the week of 3/6, the second largest this MY. That took export sale commitments to 21.274 MMT, which is now 94% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 98% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting back 4,987 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of March 11 to 77,412 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 48,722 contracts, an addition of another 9,440 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans were weaker this week with May slipping 9 cents lower and November down 7 ½ cents. Much of the weakness came following President Trump’s implementation of tariffs on steel and aluminum and retaliatory tariff on bean by the EU. May meal futures were up by $1.50 (0.49%), with bean oil down another 183 points (-4.21%) since last Friday. USDA left their US balance sheet unchanged on Tuesday, with stocks at 380 mbu. World stocks were cut back another 2.93 MMT to 121.41 MMT on crush increases for Chian and Argentina. Thursday’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at just 751,651 MT in the week of 3/6. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 45.069 MMT. That is 91% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, matching the average pace. Commitment of Traders data tallied spec traders in soybean futures and options at a net short of 15,544 contracts on Tuesday, a backing off 19,943 contracts from the previous week.
Live cattle continued to push higher this week, helped by a stronger cash market, as April was up another $2.90 (1.45%). Cash trade rallied to $200-203 in the South this week, as Northern trade came in later at $205-206, up $4-5 on the week. Feeders were up $5.00 in the March contract (1.81%) on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $8.95 week/week to $282.72. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw stronger action this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $11.94/cwt. Choice was up $3.37 (1.1%) to $318.27, while Select was $0.53 (0.2%) to $306.330. Weekly beef production totaled 511.9 million lbs this week, up 1.4% from last week and the same week last year. Year to date pork production is down 2.3%, as slaughter is 6.4% lower. USDA’s Export Sales report showed beef bookings in the week of 3/6 at 14,331 MT. Shipments were tallied at a 5-week high of 15,930 MT. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding back 2,348 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 112,816 contracts. Managed money was back at a record net long of 30,184 contracts by March 11
Hogs found tried to continue higher this week but fell back and closed down 72 cents on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down 44 cents this week at $89.74 as of March 12. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down 98 cents this week (-1%). The belly was again the leader this week, to the downside, down $12.67, with the picnic and ham reported higher. Pork production was up 3.7% from last week and 2.9% above the same week last year at 543.7 million. Year to date pork production is down 3.9%, as slaughter is 4.2% lower. Export Sales data from USDA showed a total of just 20,262 MT of pork sold in the week ending on 3/6, a calendar year low for sales. Shipments were 33,570 MT, and back up from the week prior. Commitment of Traders data showed specs trimming back another 1,909 contracts from their net long position as of 3/11 to a net position of 55,571 contracts.
Cotton futures saw some short covering this week, with May up 130 points (1.97%). USDA’s monthly update to the balance sheet on Tuesday saw things left unchanged at 4.9 million bales. Cotton Ginnings data showed 14.124 million RB of cotton ginned by the first of March. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales at 271,814 RB of cotton sold in the week of March 6. Shipments were at a MY high 403,461 RB in that week. Commitments are now at 10.124 million RB, which is 98% of the new USDA forecast, now 1% ahead of the normal sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up 188 points this week, to 53.76 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money spec traders cutting back 3,547 contracts from their previously record net short position as of March 11 to 76,410 contacts.
Market Watch
Next week starts out normally, with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. NOPA crush data will also be released on Monday morning. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday morning, with the Fed Meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday and a rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. Most are expecting to see rates unchanged this month. The USDA Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning. On Friday, NASS will release the monthly Cattle on Feed Report. April serial grain options will also expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn is on the ground floor, or at least found the floor the elevator was headed for. The low last week at $4.41 ½ held with the 38.2% Fib retracement resistance off that at $4.56 met this week. The 60-day exponential moving average at $4.56 ¼ also held things this week. After the Stochastics buy signal, the market has shifted more sideways, possibly consolidating ahead of the Intentions report later this month. It appears there is a bear pennant or flag forming off the drop. Pushing past the $4.56 area could hint at a test of the $4.60-$4.65 area.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.