Grains Report 03/14/2025

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar 17, 2025 125 Mar 13, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 17, 2025 24 Mar 13, 2025
ROUGH RICE March Mar 17, 2025 10 Mar 12, 2025
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 17, 2025 11 Mar 13, 2025
SOYBEAN March Mar 17, 2025 30 Mar 10, 2025
WHEAT March Mar 17, 2025 4 Mar 07, 2025
MINI-SIZED WHEAT March Mar 17, 2025 10 Feb 26, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets closed higher on stronger weekly export sales and as reaction passed to news of tariffs being imposed on Europe and Europe retaliating by slapping tariffs on US oilseeds and grains. A small increase in US ending stocks estimates in the WASDE reports released on Tuesday were caused by a drop in export demand and an increase in imports. World data showed lower ending stocks as production has been dropping and supplies are being consumed There are now fears that the US is entering a recession. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. This could be a supportive factor but overall demand has been weak so he lack of rain hurting production potential is less of an issue for the trade. The fears of a US recession are the consequence of the Trump economic and political policies. The consumer confidence is waning and could become a source of real harm to the economy.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 545, 530, and 524 May, with resistance at 566, 573, and 579 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 555, 540, and 534 May, with resistance at 600, 610, and 619 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 585, 576, and 570 May, and resistance is at 609, 620, and 626 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday in quiet trading. The WASDE domestic data from USDA showed an increase of 1.0 million cwt in Long grain ending stocks but a decrease of 1.0 million cwt for Medium and Short Grain ending stocks. World data showed a slight decrease in ending stocks levels. The average farm price for the US was a little higher. Mexico has escaped tariffs for now and so it will not apply its own and this was a big relief to the Rice market. Prices remain cheap and could threaten planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices are falling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are turning up. Support is at 1352, 1336 and 1296 May and resistance is at 1416, 1427, and 1455 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday on stronger weekly export sales and in recovery trading as response to news that the US had imposed tariffs on Chinese and European steel and aluminum and that Europe had retaliated by placing tariffs on US agricultural goods passed by.. Dry and cool conditions are in the Midwest forecast for today. The overall market fundamentals are still turning bearish, but short term rallies are still possible. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying was in anticipation of the new presidential regime. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed as of Tuesday on goods and services and some buyers may have made purchases already to avoid the potential for the tariff later. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. Oats were a little lower on some long liquidation after import tariffs were imposed on imports from Canada on Tuesday and seem to be holding so far.
Overnight News: USDA said that 218.604 tons odf Corn was received for delivery to unknown destinations
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 459, 442, and 434 May, and resistance is at 482, 492, and 505 May. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 364, 359, and 351 May, and resistance is at 381, 391, and 400 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher, and Soybean Oil closed lower yesterday after a week of stronger than expected weekly export sales and in recovery trading as the response to news that the US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from China and Europe and Europe returned the favor by slapping tariffs on US agricultural goods proved to be a one day issue. South American production looks strong. Futures were hit hard in part on the Trump tariffs and in part response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front this week. The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers, especially China, and could hurt demand, especially from China and Canada. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets have turned stronger in South America and hot and dry weather has returned to central and northern parts of the country. The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be more than half done.
Overnight News: 20,000 tons of Soybean Oil were sold tzo unknown destinations.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. To down Support is at 990, 980 and 955 May, and resistance is at 1021, 1041, and 105 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 310.00, 315.00, and 319.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4110, 4080, and 3990 May, with resistance at 4290, 4450, and 4460 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little higher on price action in Chicago that caused speculative buying in Malaysia and despite talk of less than expected export demand last week as reported by the private surveyors. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand from China has not been good but reports indicate that demand from India has been strong in February and provided support. Chart trends are turning up. Canola was moderately lower for the third day on news that China has imposed prohibitive tariffs on Canola and the products. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed last week but was able to partially recover the losses on report of moderations by the US on the tariff schedule. The China news was devastating as China is a major importer of Canola and the products.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 564.00, 558.00, and 552.00 May, with resistance at 590.00, 600.00, and 615.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4430, 4370, and 4350 May, with resistance at 4650, 4720, and 4790 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1140.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1087.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1020.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1010.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1145.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1092.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1025.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1015.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1105.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1070.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,850.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 485.00 +07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.443)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 173,609 lots, or 6.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 4,104 4,086 4,104 18 0 0
May-25 4,008 4,018 3,991 4,009 4,003 4,004 1 138,414 193,926
Jul-25 4,036 4,044 4,022 4,037 4,031 4,032 1 16,897 57,530
Sep-25 4,055 4,061 4,042 4,059 4,048 4,053 5 13,272 39,377
Nov-25 4,017 4,025 4,005 4,018 4,000 4,014 14 3,949 28,995
Jan-26 4,022 4,029 4,012 4,024 4,004 4,019 15 1,077 3,288
Corn
Turnover: 641,413 lots, or 1.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 2,162 2,250 2,162 -88 2 0
May-25 2,298 2,312 2,297 2,309 2,302 2,304 2 483,183 1,286,672
Jul-25 2,330 2,344 2,329 2,341 2,333 2,337 4 80,319 452,685
Sep-25 2,352 2,357 2,345 2,352 2,348 2,351 3 42,524 199,931
Nov-25 2,292 2,300 2,285 2,292 2,294 2,291 -3 31,987 118,810
Jan-26 2,277 2,282 2,271 2,277 2,277 2,275 -2 3,398 12,601
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,498,674 lots, or 73.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,320 3,330 3,300 3,330 3,346 3,513 167 48 0
May-25 2,886 2,904 2,878 2,901 2,859 2,890 31 1,638,474 1,942,729
Jul-25 2,854 2,891 2,849 2,883 2,827 2,873 46 119,846 363,086
Aug-25 2,982 3,011 2,979 2,990 2,961 2,993 32 20,296 166,255
Sep-25 2,995 3,023 2,987 3,000 2,971 3,003 32 623,123 1,613,222
Nov-25 3,013 3,047 3,013 3,024 2,995 3,028 33 31,340 239,762
Dec-25 3,028 3,053 3,025 3,029 3,007 3,037 30 15,260 86,987
Jan-26 3,012 3,037 3,011 3,013 2,997 3,022 25 50,287 181,664
Palm Oil
Turnover: 978,733 lots, or 88.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 9,378 9,366 9,378 12 70 0
Apr-25 9,318 9,318 9,206 9,308 9,232 9,262 30 9,370 4,198
May-25 9,120 9,148 9,022 9,120 9,046 9,088 42 894,554 443,240
Jun-25 8,898 8,916 8,802 8,888 8,820 8,866 46 1,533 4,593
Jul-25 8,702 8,724 8,628 8,702 8,634 8,696 62 524 1,370
Aug-25 8,550 8,584 8,496 8,568 8,536 8,542 6 13 479
Sep-25 8,480 8,490 8,398 8,464 8,394 8,446 52 71,111 142,993
Oct-25 8,404 8,434 8,398 8,434 8,412 8,410 -2 33 980
Nov-25 8,378 8,390 8,334 8,388 8,314 8,380 66 18 1,335
Dec-25 8,288 8,354 8,288 8,340 8,288 8,332 44 40 952
Jan-26 8,336 8,354 8,272 8,334 8,272 8,314 42 1,465 6,061
Feb-26 8,274 8,312 8,274 8,312 8,254 8,292 38 2 44
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 657,513 lots, or 52.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 8,130 7,800 8,130 330 40 0
May-25 7,998 8,084 7,974 8,068 7,908 8,022 114 506,106 580,799
Jul-25 7,834 7,918 7,818 7,900 7,752 7,864 112 5,150 13,384
Aug-25 7,878 7,956 7,864 7,940 7,796 7,900 104 985 3,422
Sep-25 7,878 7,952 7,852 7,930 7,796 7,898 102 140,559 349,833
Nov-25 7,892 7,966 7,880 7,950 7,842 7,938 96 186 1,818
Dec-25 7,870 7,932 7,862 7,930 7,800 7,898 98 28 131
Jan-26 7,808 7,850 7,784 7,830 7,752 7,818 66 4,459 9,596
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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