Grains Report 03/13/2025

DJ Conab Sees Record Brazilian Crop Output — Market Talk
0925 ET – Brazilian agricultural agency Conab has raised its projections for the size of this year’s crops. Conab says that the Brazilian soybean crop will hit 167.4 million metric tons. That’s up 13% from last year, and up from 166 million tons projected last month. The agency attributed the uptick in soybean production to higher-than-expected yields for crops, thanks to a timely decrease in precipitation allowing the late-stage crop to flourish in its final stages in some Brazilian states. Corn is projected at 122.8 million tons, which is up 800,000 tons from Conab’s previous forecast. “After a slower start to the harvest due to planting delays and excessive rainfall in January, the reduction in rainfall in February led to a significant increase in the harvested area,” says the agency. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 13
For the week ended Mar 6, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 783.4 82.6 21082.8 18501.7 5675.7 470.0
hrw 218.2 13.3 5182.5 3395.6 1553.9 140.7
srw 27.7 13.0 3092.0 4527.3 751.3 135.4
hrs 207.6 42.8 6717.0 6255.2 1668.8 134.5
white 330.0 13.5 5764.7 3862.0 1624.6 39.5
durum 0.0 0.0 326.5 461.5 77.0 20.0
corn 967.3 13.4 50534.8 40510.9 20843.5 1509.3
soybeans 751.7 43.1 45069.1 39597.0 6527.2 295.3
soymeal 184.8 1.6 10994.6 9816.2 4547.4 110.8
soyoil 68.5 0.0 832.4 72.6 283.7 0.4
upland cotton 271.8 110.2 10123.5 10615.2 4877.9 909.7
pima cotton 4.6 0.0 327.9 254.3 94.0 1.0
sorghum 33.8 0.0 1262.7 4936.6 102.3 0.0
barley 0.1 0.0 39.7 16.6 19.5 22.8
rice 29.8 0.0 2468.2 2555.5 647.2 10.1

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar 14, 2025 182 Mar 12, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 14, 2025 34 Mar 12, 2025
ROUGH RICE March Mar 14, 2025 27 Mar 12, 2025
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 14, 2025 2 Mar 12, 2025
SOYBEAN March Mar 14, 2025 40 Feb 27, 2025
WHEAT March Mar 14, 2025 1 Mar 07, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets closed mixed, with Chicago and Minneapolis a little lower and Kansas City a little higher in reaction to news of tariffs being imposed on Europe and Europe retaliating by slapping tariffs on US oilseeds and grains. A small increase in US ending stocks estimates in the WASDE reports released on Tuesday were caused by a drop in export demand and an increase in imports. World data showed lower ending stocks as production has been dropping and supplies are being consumed There are now fears that the US is entering a recession. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. This could be a supportive factor but overall demand has been weak so he lack of rain hurting production potential is less of an issue for the trade. The fears of a US recession are the consequence of the Trump economic and political policies. The consumer confidence is waning and could become a source of real harm to the economy.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 545, 530, and 524 May, with resistance at 566, 573, and 579 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 555, 540, and 534 May, with resistance at 600, 610, and 619 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 585, 576, and 570 May, and resistance is at 609, 620, and 626 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday on some speculative selling after being sharply higher the previous session in response to the USDA reports. The domestic data showed an increase of 1.0 million cwt in Long grain ending stocks but a decrease of 1.0 million cwt for Medium and Short Grain ending stocks. World data showed a slight decrease in ending stocks levels. The average farm price for the US was a little higher. Mexico has escaped tariffs for now and so it will not apply its own and this was a big relief to the Rice market. Prices remain cheap and could threaten planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices are falling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are turning up. Support is at 1352, 1336 and 1296 May and resistance is at 1416, 1427, and 1455 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday in response to news that the US had imposed tariffs ion Chinese and European steel and aluminum and that Europe had retaliated by placing tariffs on US agricultural goods.. Dry and cool conditions are in the Midwest forecast for today. The overall market fundamentals are still turning bearish, but short term rallies are still possible. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying was in anticipation of the new presidential regime. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed as of Tuesday on goods and services and some buyers may have made purchases already to avoid the potential for the tariff later. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. Oats were a little lower on some long liquidation after import tariffs were imposed on imports from Canada on Tuesday and seem to be holding so far.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 459, 442, and 434 May, and resistance is at 482, 492, and 505 May. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 364, 359, and 351 May, and resistance is at 381, 391, and 400 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday in response to news hat the US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from China and Europe and Europe returned the favor by slapping tariffs on US agricultural goods. South American production looks strong. Futures were hit hard in part on the Trump tariffs and in part response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front this week. The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers, especially China, and could hurt demand, especially from China and Canada. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets have turned stronger in South America and hot and dry weather has returned to central and northern parts of the country. The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be more than half done.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. To down Support is at 9900, 980 and 955 May, and resistance is at 1021, 1041, and 105 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 308.00, 315.00, and 319.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4120, 4080, and 3990 May, with resistance at 4290, 4450, and 4460 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little higher on price action in Chicago that caused speculative buying in Malaysia and despite talk of less than expected export demand last week as reported by the private surveyors. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand from China has not been good but reports indicate that demand from India has been strong in February and provided support. Chart trends are turning up. Canola was sharply lower for the third day on news that China has imposed prohibitive tariffs on Canola and the products. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed last week but was able to partially recover the losses on report of moderations by the US on the tariff schedule. The China news was devastating as China is a major importer of Canola and the products.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 570.00, 564.00, and 558.00 May, with resistance at 590.00, 600.00, and 615.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4430, 4370, and 4350 May, with resistance at 4650, 4720, and 4790 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1140.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1087.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1015.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1007.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1145.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1092.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1020.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1012.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1100.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1070.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,850.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Taded
Mar 478.00 +06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.432)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 245,551 lots, or 9.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 4,086 4,086 4,086 0 0 0
May-25 4,000 4,017 3,988 4,007 4,046 4,003 -43 196,738 184,991
Jul-25 4,034 4,044 4,017 4,034 4,072 4,031 -41 27,021 56,024
Sep-25 4,052 4,060 4,034 4,052 4,078 4,048 -30 15,688 35,753
Nov-25 3,994 4,014 3,985 4,013 4,027 4,000 -27 4,795 28,477
Jan-26 4,005 4,020 3,991 4,019 4,033 4,004 -29 1,309 3,228
Corn
Turnover: 985,470 lots, or 22.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 2,250 2,250 2,250 0 0 552
May-25 2,310 2,311 2,293 2,299 2,320 2,302 -18 776,210 1,316,989
Jul-25 2,342 2,342 2,325 2,330 2,349 2,333 -16 126,453 450,527
Sep-25 2,362 2,364 2,340 2,345 2,366 2,348 -18 59,538 186,065
Nov-25 2,300 2,301 2,286 2,289 2,306 2,294 -12 20,701 112,633
Jan-26 2,283 2,283 2,272 2,274 2,288 2,277 -11 2,568 12,269
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,186,266 lots, or 92.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,387 3,387 3,280 3,290 3,397 3,346 -51 781 6,979
May-25 2,830 2,879 2,825 2,877 2,844 2,859 15 2,148,093 1,978,026
Jul-25 2,805 2,847 2,796 2,841 2,815 2,827 12 113,748 364,747
Aug-25 2,946 2,982 2,932 2,973 2,950 2,961 11 19,807 165,901
Sep-25 2,945 2,993 2,940 2,981 2,964 2,971 7 769,184 1,583,572
Nov-25 2,974 3,015 2,967 3,008 2,988 2,995 7 44,215 243,900
Dec-25 2,995 3,029 2,979 3,019 3,010 3,007 -3 26,597 88,377
Jan-26 2,978 3,016 2,973 3,007 2,997 2,997 0 63,841 174,519
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,168,874 lots, or 10.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 9,366 9,366 9,366 0 0 731
Apr-25 9,204 9,310 9,142 9,280 9,190 9,232 42 11,207 4,648
May-25 9,026 9,140 8,950 9,106 9,000 9,046 46 1,071,900 453,430
Jun-25 8,792 8,906 8,724 8,872 8,780 8,820 40 1,836 4,224
Jul-25 8,614 8,710 8,542 8,690 8,596 8,634 38 276 1,083
Aug-25 8,480 8,550 8,394 8,550 8,454 8,536 82 351 485
Sep-25 8,396 8,470 8,296 8,456 8,378 8,394 16 81,313 139,230
Oct-25 8,372 8,414 8,270 8,414 8,364 8,412 48 326 972
Nov-25 8,338 8,384 8,238 8,368 8,334 8,314 -20 18 1,336
Dec-25 8,300 8,350 8,248 8,348 8,280 8,288 8 22 948
Jan-26 8,258 8,336 8,182 8,322 8,258 8,272 14 1,602 6,002
Feb-26 8,202 8,320 8,174 8,304 8,258 8,254 -4 23 43
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 625,306 lots, or 49.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 7,800 7,800 7,800 7,800 8,276 7,800 -476 9 56
May-25 7,854 7,998 7,838 7,988 7,856 7,908 52 478,821 534,810
Jul-25 7,726 7,830 7,696 7,826 7,722 7,752 30 5,735 12,058
Aug-25 7,746 7,874 7,742 7,866 7,768 7,796 28 1,716 3,278
Sep-25 7,744 7,872 7,730 7,866 7,758 7,796 38 134,859 346,214
Nov-25 7,760 7,890 7,760 7,884 7,784 7,842 58 587 1,884
Dec-25 7,776 7,868 7,750 7,864 7,784 7,800 16 50 125
Jan-26 7,726 7,804 7,700 7,796 7,742 7,752 10 3,529 8,810
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322