Grains Report 03/11/2025

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2024-25
Average Range USDA February USDA 2023-2024
Corn 1,523 1,415-1,630 1,540 1,763
Soybeans 381 365-402 380 342
Wheat 796 779-815 794 696
World 2024-25 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
Average Range USDA February USDA 2023-24
Corn 290.0 288.0-291.6 290.3 315.8
Soybeans 124.2 122.2-125.0 124.3 112.5
Wheat 257.5 256.0-259.3 257.6 267.5
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
2024-25
Average Range USDA February USDA 2023-24
Corn 126.2 124.0-130.9 126.0 122.0
Soybeans 169.3 168.0-171.0 169.0 153.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
2024-25
Average Range USDA February USDA 2023-24
Corn 49.0 47.0-50.0 50.0 50.0
Soybeans 48.6 47.5-49.0 49.0 48.2

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 10
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon March 10, 2025 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 06, 2025
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/06/2025 02/27/2025 03/07/2024 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 122 0 9,329 1,814
CORN 1,819,812 1,352,573 1,166,253 29,078,389 21,864,112
FLAXSEED 24 0 24 312 24
MIXED 0 0 0 122 73
OATS 499 0 0 647 3,994
RYE 0 0 0 0 72
SORGHUM 53,398 16,519 65,325 1,539,897 3,631,333
SOYBEANS 844,218 699,958 785,367 38,440,871 35,081,989
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 4,109
WHEAT 216,173 390,591 485,661 15,848,469 13,456,795
Total 2,934,124 2,459,763 2,502,630 84,918,036 74,044,315
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar 12, 2025 1 Mar 05, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 12, 2025 195 Mar 07, 2025
ROUGH RICE March Mar 12, 2025 47 Mar 04, 2025
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 12, 2025 3 Mar 07, 2025
WHEAT March Mar 12, 2025 11 Mar 05, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher on relaxation of the tariffs and on hopes for improved demand on reduced world production. World production has been dropping and supplies are being consumed Trump has allowed auto makers to avoid the tariffs for now and there are ideas that more industries will be exempted for at least a month or so. There are now somewhat reduced fears that the US is entering a recession. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. This could be a supportive factor but overall demand has been weak so he lack of rain hurting production potential is less of an issue for the trade. The fears of a US recession are the consequence of the Trump economic and political policies. The consumer confidence is waning and could become a source of real harm to the economy.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 545, 530, and 524 May, with resistance at 573, 579, and 585 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 555, 540, and 534 May, with resistance at 600, 610, and 619 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 585, 576, and 570 May, and resistance is at 609, 620, and 626 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed sharply higher yesterday in recovery trading. Mexico has escaped tariffs for now and so it will not apply its own and this was a big relief to the Rice market. WASDE will release its latest supply and demand updates later today. Prices remain cheap and could threaten planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. The trends are still down the daily and weekly charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices are falling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are turning up. Support is at 1352, 1336 and 1296 May and resistance is at 1416, 1427, and 1455 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday as futures recovered from news that the funds had liquidated most of their long position in the last week. In addition, about half of the tariffs were eased against Mexico, the major Corn importer this year, and that country has said it will not yet put tariffs on ag imports including Corn. The weekly export inspections report was considered positive given the current political environment. Dry and cool conditions are in the Midwest forecast for today. The overall market fundamentals are still turning bearish. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying was in anticipation of the new presidential regime. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed as of Tuesday on goods and services and some buyers may have made purchases already to avoid the potential for the tariff later. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. Oats were higher as import tariffs were imposed on imports from Canada on Tuesday and seem to be holding so far.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 459, 442, and 434 May, and resistance is at 482, 492, and 505 May. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 364, 359, and 351 May, and resistance is at 381, 391, and 400 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday, as China announced retaliatory tariffs on US ag products and as South American production looks strong. Futures were hit hard in part on the Trump tariffs and in part response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front this week. The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers, especially China, and could hurt demand, especially from China and Canada. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets have turned stronger in South America and hot and dry weather has returned to central and northern parts of the country. The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be half done.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1012, 990 and 980 May, and resistance is at 1041, 1051, and 1055 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 308.00, 315.00, and 319.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4140, 4080, and 3990 May, with resistance at 4450, 4460, and 4530 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on less than expected export demand lat month as reported by MPOB. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand from China has not been good but reports indicate that demand from India has been strong in February and provided support. Chart trends are turning up. Canola was sharply lower on news that China has imposed prohibitive tariffs on Canola and the products. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed last week but was able to partially recover the losses on report of moderations by the US on the tariff schedule. The China news was devastating as China is a major importer of Canola and the products.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 600.00, 593.00, and 590.00 May, with resistance at 615.00, 617.00, and 634.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4430, 4370, and 4350 May, with resistance at 4650, 4720, and 4790 May.

DJ Malaysia’s February Palm Oil Exports 1.00M Tons; Down 16%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 16% on month at 1.00 million metric tons in February, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the February crop data and revised numbers for January, issued by MPOB:
February January Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,188,029 1,239,545 Dn 4.16%
Palm Oil Exports 1,002,135 1,196,849 Dn 16.27%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 58,144 57,554 Up 1.03%
Palm Oil Imports 66,784 88,474 Dn 24.52%
Closing Stocks 1,512,100 1,580,252 Dn 4.31%
Crude Palm Oil 826,248 789,435 Up 4.66%
Processed Palm Oil 685,852 790,817 Dn 13.27%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1135.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1075.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1012.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1007.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1040.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1080.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1017.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1012.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1095.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1070.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,840.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 465.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4115)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 271,278 lots, or 11.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open Settle Interest
Mar-25 4,096 4,096 3,900 3,961 4,096 4,086 -10 564 27
May-25 4,153 4,154 4,061 4,068 4,157 4,090 -67 218,617 176,206
Jul-25 4,166 4,166 4,085 4,090 4,170 4,107 -63 34,964 48,770
Sep-25 4,174 4,175 4,096 4,102 4,174 4,116 -58 11,666 29,465
Nov-25 4,116 4,116 4,041 4,045 4,111 4,063 -48 4,582 26,468
Jan-26 4,105 4,105 4,046 4,049 4,117 4,065 -52 885 2,551
Corn
Turnover: 724,910 lots, or 16.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,163 2,250 87 1 552
May-25 2,319 2,330 2,311 2,326 2,316 2,320 4 542,975 1,367,634
Jul-25 2,351 2,358 2,340 2,355 2,344 2,351 7 109,826 432,229
Sep-25 2,362 2,373 2,354 2,369 2,355 2,364 9 41,945 178,801
Nov-25 2,296 2,312 2,290 2,310 2,293 2,300 7 24,099 109,403
Jan-26 2,283 2,296 2,277 2,294 2,280 2,289 9 6,064 12,219
Soymeal
Turnover: 4,036,978 lots, or 11.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,490 3,490 3,420 3,420 3,476 3,450 -26 361 7,448
May-25 2,940 2,945 2,851 2,855 2,928 2,877 -51 2,943,228 2,140,025
Jul-25 2,887 2,909 2,818 2,820 2,865 2,838 -27 131,611 371,427
Aug-25 3,013 3,016 2,943 2,950 2,992 2,963 -29 25,976 168,333
Sep-25 3,016 3,021 2,953 2,959 3,006 2,972 -34 778,010 1,586,399
Nov-25 3,039 3,045 2,975 2,984 3,026 2,993 -33 74,207 252,384
Dec-25 3,058 3,064 3,004 3,010 3,048 3,021 -27 17,241 85,516
Jan-26 3,045 3,052 2,986 2,994 3,031 3,005 -26 66,344 166,849
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,122,459 lots, or 10.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 9,366 9,366 9,366 9,366 9,584 9,366 -218 181 731
Apr-25 9,184 9,242 9,050 9,126 9,328 9,128 -200 10,428 4,352
May-25 9,028 9,060 8,876 8,934 9,156 8,958 -198 1,008,501 429,081
Jun-25 8,772 8,808 8,646 8,710 8,906 8,702 -204 3,003 4,005
Jul-25 8,624 8,648 8,492 8,538 8,696 8,564 -132 558 985
Aug-25 8,512 8,534 8,374 8,374 8,560 8,468 -92 61 182
Sep-25 8,440 8,460 8,278 8,322 8,488 8,360 -128 98,177 135,512
Oct-25 8,396 8,398 8,248 8,286 8,458 8,322 -136 40 683
Nov-25 8,358 8,358 8,240 8,240 8,432 8,284 -148 19 1,345
Dec-25 8,360 8,360 8,206 8,246 8,388 8,262 -126 37 933
Jan-26 8,300 8,336 8,186 8,220 8,366 8,248 -118 1,431 5,843
Feb-26 8,300 8,328 8,190 8,190 8,364 8,270 -94 23 51
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 594,902 lots, or 46.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 8,276 8,276 8,276 0 0 99
May-25 7,986 7,992 7,832 7,854 8,008 7,914 -94 489,098 551,444
Jul-25 7,828 7,846 7,704 7,722 7,866 7,780 -86 4,044 10,110
Aug-25 7,886 7,894 7,752 7,770 7,914 7,832 -82 1,309 2,890
Sep-25 7,880 7,890 7,740 7,762 7,902 7,812 -90 97,233 331,200
Nov-25 7,890 7,910 7,780 7,788 7,932 7,850 -82 189 2,233
Dec-25 7,906 7,906 7,778 7,778 7,912 7,822 -90 58 102
Jan-26 7,862 7,882 7,730 7,754 7,874 7,794 -80 2,971 7,644
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322