AgMaster Report – 03/10/2025

MAY CORN

A roller-coaster week indeed for May Corn as tariffs on Mexico & Canada implemented on Mon 3-3-25 were a few days later deferred to April 1 – enabling the mkt to completely recover its 30 cent weekly loss!  In addition, the US Dollar plummeted to a 4 month low – encouraging the export flow! The 70 cent break in corn since mid-Feb has made US Corn the cheapest anywhere – further enhancing corn’s export potential!  Finally dryness in central US, Brazil & Argentina is problematical for their upcoming crops!

 

MAY BEANS

May Beans continue to be the weak sister at the CBOT – primarily due to China tariffs – that were not rolled back last week – unlike the Mexican/Canada tariffs! In addition, over the W/E – new 100% tariffs on Canadian Canola Meal & Oil were announced – further pressuring the bean complex today! No trade talks have been scheduled between Presidents Trump & Xi! The Tues WASDE scheduled for Tues at 11am CST may lower bean exports! The bright spot is bean acreage for 2025 is expected to be lowered 3 mill acres under 2024 – which will support the mkt on breaks!

 

MAY WHT

May Wht has managed to rally 35 cents off its March lows (530-565) – off dryness in the US Central Plains & the Black Sea! Also, the US Dollar has been very supportive dropping to a 4 month low last week! Finally, spillover support from corn has underpinned wht – as corn prices rally in response to the Mexican tariffs being delayed to April 1!

 

APL CAT

Apl Cat has had a $14 “free fall” since mid-Feb – as finally record high prices squeezed demand & the big long fund position had a massive liquidation! The last leg down was exacerbated by all the tariff implementation on 3-4-25! But the mkt became severely oversold & bargain hunters began scooping it up! And ideas surfaced that tariffs would mean less imports from Canada & Mexico – plus  improved cash & anticipation of Spring Demand rallied the mkt back sharply $8 (80-88)!

 

APL HOGS

Much like its “sister mkt” Apl Cat, Apl Hog have rallied $8 (80-88) after breaking $14 (94-80)! The hog went too high to support demand & a burdensome long fund position was quick to run – & the break was extended by all the tariff news! But the mkt got too cheap, demand improved & cash subsequently increased– motivating the sharp rally! Spring Grilling season is right around the corner & demand for both beef & pork will increase markedly!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337