Grains Report 03/06/2025

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 6
For the week ended Feb 27, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 338.7 77.0 20299.3 18417.9 5116.3 387.4
hrw 135.2 46.0 4964.3 3309.7 1405.6 127.4
srw 76.2 7.0 3064.4 4632.1 798.1 122.4
hrs 103.6 24.0 6509.4 6214.8 1521.8 91.7
white 23.8 0.0 5434.7 3800.3 1313.5 26.0
durum 0.0 0.0 326.4 461.0 77.2 20.0
corn 909.1 52.0 49567.4 39227.4 21739.1 1495.9
soybeans 352.9 54.9 44386.0 39290.0 6698.6 252.1
soymeal 236.6 0.1 10809.8 9606.7 4647.0 109.2
soyoil 54.8 0.0 763.9 61.4 239.3 0.4
upland cotton 241.5 105.6 9851.7 10529.4 5009.6 799.5
pima cotton 10.9 0.0 323.3 247.5 96.3 1.0
sorghum 8.0 0.0 1228.9 4930.9 121.5 0.0
barley 0.5 1.7 39.7 16.6 20.1 22.8
rice 57.5 10.1 2438.5 2511.7 645.9 10.1

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar 07, 2025 444 Mar 04, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 07, 2025 195 Mar 04, 2025
ROUGH RICE March Mar 07, 2025 8 Feb 26, 2025
CORN March Mar 07, 2025 83 Feb 27, 2025
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 07, 2025 26 Mar 05, 2025
SOYBEAN March Mar 07, 2025 220 Feb 25, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher in relief buying that there might be some relaxation of the tariffs. A weaker US Dollar as the tariffs were imposed Tuesday on our biggest customers and are thought to be bad for prices and on fears that the US is entering a recession. Growing conditions ar3e dry around the world and in the US Great Plains. The fears of a US recession are the consequence of the Trump economic and political policies. Republicans are trying to mask the threat by taking the government losses out of the GDP, but the consumer confidence is waning and could become a source of real harm to the economy. The president is slated to make a speech to congress tonight and will try to revive support of his programs that are becoming very unpopular. It will be interesting and instructive to hear the reaction to the speech as it could directly affect agriculture.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down. Support is at 530, 524, and 518 May, with resistance at 563, 573, and 573 May. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 540, 534, and 528 May, with resistance at 559, 569, and 582 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down. Support is at 576, 570, and 564 May, and resistance is at 594, 597, and 606 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday after trading to new lows for the move earlier in the session. Prices remain cheap and could threaten planted area Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling yields have been called poor at 50 lbs instead of 55 lbs. The trends are still down the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong, but the difference is gone to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1337, 1324 and 1312 May and resistance is at 1386, 1404, and 1415 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on some reports that the tariffs might be eased for at least some industries. Scattered showers and more general rains are in the Midwest forecast for today. The rains will help preserve strong yield potential although more will be needed soon. The overall market fundamentals are turning bearish. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed as of Tuesday on goods and services and some buyers may have made purchases already to avoid the potential for the tariff later. The US is also the major supplier to the world of Corn right now so the sales could hold relatively strong even with trade wars possible. Prices are cheap so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Oats were lower as import tariffs were imposed on imports from Canada on Tuesday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 442, 434, and 433 May, and resistance is at 462, 467, and 482 May. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 381, 374, and 371 May, and resistance is at 391, 400, and 412 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher in relief buying on ideas that at least some f the tariffs imposed by Trump might be relaxed. Futures have been hit hard in part on the tariffs and in part response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front yesterday. The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers and could hurt demand, especially from China and Canada. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The fundamentals remain mixed to bearish.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 20,000 tons of US Soybean Oil.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 990, 980 and 977 May, and resistance is at 1020, 1041, and 1051 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 302.00, 305.00, and 308.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4140, 4080, and 3990 May, with resistance at 4450, 4460, and 4530 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was higher along with Chicago. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being impos3d yesterday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 616.00, 600.00, and 590.00 May, with resistance at 652.00, 657.00, and 673.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4370, 4350, and 4290 May, with resistance at 4490, 4550, and 4620 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Light snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1125.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1070.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1010.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1007.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1130.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1075.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1015.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1012.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1085.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1060.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,800.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 460.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.424)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 273,454 lots, or 11.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,155 4,100 -55 10 1,909
May-25 4,183 4,199 4,153 4,176 4,212 4,175 -37 239,254 209,601
Jul-25 4,178 4,199 4,154 4,174 4,205 4,174 -31 17,666 44,060
Sep-25 4,186 4,205 4,158 4,181 4,206 4,182 -24 11,355 26,504
Nov-25 4,125 4,146 4,095 4,117 4,138 4,119 -19 4,705 24,534
Jan-26 4,120 4,144 4,096 4,115 4,123 4,117 -6 464 1,872
Corn
Turnover: 852,725 lots, or 19.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 2,209 2,209 2,135 2,145 2,174 2,163 -11 3 564
May-25 2,286 2,308 2,284 2,308 2,293 2,294 1 660,390 1,380,070
Jul-25 2,315 2,341 2,315 2,339 2,324 2,327 3 112,745 402,632
Sep-25 2,334 2,361 2,334 2,360 2,342 2,348 6 48,814 156,877
Nov-25 2,273 2,299 2,273 2,299 2,279 2,287 8 25,480 107,824
Jan-26 2,268 2,283 2,262 2,281 2,273 2,271 -2 5,293 10,716
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,375,878 lots, or 98.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,523 3,523 3,451 3,465 3,523 3,505 -18 629 7,954
May-25 2,895 2,901 2,854 2,893 2,925 2,883 -42 2,463,990 2,270,696
Jul-25 2,817 2,833 2,794 2,831 2,835 2,813 -22 109,311 376,723
Aug-25 2,973 2,986 2,953 2,984 2,994 2,970 -24 45,327 183,024
Sep-25 2,988 2,997 2,966 2,995 3,009 2,983 -26 594,289 1,535,892
Nov-25 3,022 3,025 2,994 3,024 3,043 3,011 -32 64,616 275,992
Dec-25 3,040 3,046 3,011 3,045 3,058 3,031 -27 18,388 90,122
Jan-26 3,026 3,037 2,997 3,034 3,041 3,019 -22 79,328 146,655
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,070,092 lots, or 94.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 9,584 9,584 9,584 0 0 882
Apr-25 9,014 9,130 8,936 9,108 8,962 9,014 52 6,447 4,853
May-25 8,838 8,976 8,766 8,962 8,792 8,850 58 973,182 443,802
Jun-25 8,654 8,758 8,590 8,746 8,614 8,656 42 2,032 3,001
Jul-25 8,516 8,600 8,436 8,592 8,466 8,504 38 435 954
Aug-25 8,394 8,470 8,314 8,466 8,356 8,368 12 59 192
Sep-25 8,320 8,392 8,200 8,374 8,270 8,310 40 85,899 138,072
Oct-25 8,252 8,338 8,192 8,338 8,230 8,256 26 45 686
Nov-25 8,214 8,290 8,198 8,290 8,204 8,264 60 18 1,355
Dec-25 8,252 8,306 8,200 8,300 8,196 8,242 46 41 917
Jan-26 8,208 8,288 8,154 8,276 8,182 8,212 30 1,922 6,255
Feb-26 8,224 8,272 8,172 8,272 8,194 8,220 26 12 49
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 699,605 lots, or 5.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 8,256 8,256 8,256 0 0 109
May-25 7,826 7,932 7,774 7,916 7,844 7,864 20 579,109 583,090
Jul-25 7,692 7,768 7,638 7,750 7,712 7,712 0 4,117 9,992
Aug-25 7,734 7,810 7,676 7,796 7,750 7,750 0 863 2,086
Sep-25 7,736 7,808 7,664 7,790 7,740 7,744 4 112,854 314,548
Nov-25 7,758 7,828 7,696 7,816 7,774 7,774 0 205 2,440
Dec-25 7,748 7,824 7,712 7,814 7,782 7,762 -20 44 98
Jan-26 7,728 7,800 7,680 7,776 7,740 7,738 -2 2,413 6,208
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322