Grains Report 03/05/2025

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar 06, 2025 53 Feb 27, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 06, 2025 212 Mar 03, 2025
ROUGH RICE March Mar 06, 2025 270 Feb 26, 2025
CORN March Mar 06, 2025 220 Feb 27, 2025
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 06, 2025 85 Mar 04, 2025
OATS March Mar 06, 2025 2 Mar 04, 2025
WHEAT March Mar 06, 2025 3 Feb 28, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed lower again despite a weaker US Dollar as the tariffs were imposed on our biggest customers and are thought to be bad for prices and on fears that the US is entering a recession. Growing conditions ar3e dry around the world and in the US Great Plains. The fears of a US recession are the consequence of the Trump economic and political policies. Republicans are trying to mask the threat by taking the government losses out of the GDP, but the consumer confidence is waning and could become a source of real harm to the economy. The president is slated to make a speech to congress tonight and will try to revive support of his programs that are becoming very unpopular. It will be interesting and instructive to hear the reaction to the speech as it could directly affect agriculture.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down. Support is at 530, 524, and 518 May, with resistance at 552, 563, and 573 May. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 540, 534, and 528 May, with resistance at 559, 569, and 582 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down. Support is at 576, 570, and 564 May, and resistance is at 591, 597, and 606 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday after trading lower earlier in the session Prices got remain cheap and could threaten planted area Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling yields have been called poor at 50 lbs instead of 55 lbs. The trends are still down the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong, but the difference is gone to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1337, 1324 and 1312 May and resistance is at 1386, 1404, and 1415 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and the carry spreads were weaker. Scattered showers and more general rains are in the Midwest forecast for today. The rains will help preserve strong yield potential although more will be needed soon. The overall market fundamentals are turning bearish. USDA increased planted area in its outlook conference ideas last week and the increas3e was in line with trade ideas. It also increased ending stocks estimates. The ideas were considered bearish for prices. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed as of yesterday on goods and services and some buyers may have made purchases already to avoid the potential for the tariff later. The US is also the major supplier to the world of Corn right now so the sales could hold relatively strong even with trade wars possible. It is now very cold in the Midwest so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Argentina has cut its export tax rate on grains and oilseeds effective next week. Oats were higher as import tariffs were imposed on imports from Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 442, 434, and 433 May, and resistance is at 462, 467, and 482 May. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 381, 374, and 371 May, and resistance is at 391, 400, and 412 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower in response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front yesterday. The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers and could hurt demand, especially from China and Canada. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The carry spreads were weaker. The fundamentals remain mixed to bearish.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 990, 980 and 977 May, and resistance is at 1020, 1041, and 1051 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 297.00, 302.00, and 305.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4250, 4140, and 4080 May, with resistance at 4450, 4460, and 4530 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today. Indonesia wants to use a blend of 40% of Plam Oil in its gasoline mixtures, but this has proved to be expensive and might need to be reduced and allow for increased exports. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was lower along with Chicago. The d3mand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being impos3d yesterday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 616.00, 600.00, and 590.00 May, with resistance at 630.00, 638.00, and 652.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4440, 4350, and 4290 May, with resistance at 4550, 4620, and 4680 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Light rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1110.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1055.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 995.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 992.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1115.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1060.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1000.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 997.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1070.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1055.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,760.00 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 457.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.427)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 407,179 lots, or 17.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 4,155 4,155 4,155 4,155 4,156 4,155 -1 11 1,925
May-25 4,240 4,270 4,171 4,175 4,253 4,212 -41 353,410 216,684
Jul-25 4,247 4,263 4,171 4,173 4,247 4,205 -42 30,407 44,193
Sep-25 4,246 4,265 4,176 4,177 4,253 4,206 -47 16,541 25,522
Nov-25 4,169 4,190 4,111 4,117 4,179 4,138 -41 6,127 23,927
Jan-26 4,148 4,161 4,102 4,114 4,146 4,123 -23 683 1,886
Corn
Turnover: 1,117,828 lots, or 25.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 2,178 2,178 2,162 2,162 2,164 2,174 10 115 1,628
May-25 2,309 2,310 2,282 2,283 2,315 2,293 -22 887,537 1,345,835
Jul-25 2,334 2,340 2,313 2,314 2,341 2,324 -17 148,614 374,992
Sep-25 2,358 2,358 2,333 2,335 2,359 2,342 -17 52,527 143,200
Nov-25 2,289 2,291 2,270 2,272 2,297 2,279 -18 23,742 104,431
Jan-26 2,289 2,289 2,262 2,265 2,295 2,273 -22 5,293 9,038
Soymeal
Turnover: 4,480,169 lots, or 13.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,554 3,554 3,480 3,486 3,561 3,523 -38 1,598 8,412
May-25 2,968 2,983 2,877 2,881 2,983 2,925 -58 3,159,926 2,388,573
Jul-25 2,887 2,890 2,801 2,802 2,886 2,835 -51 142,493 379,626
Aug-25 3,041 3,051 2,957 2,958 3,039 2,994 -45 53,124 186,319
Sep-25 3,063 3,065 2,970 2,974 3,051 3,009 -42 904,774 1,556,868
Nov-25 3,068 3,092 3,001 3,003 3,076 3,043 -33 107,593 273,870
Dec-25 3,091 3,109 3,022 3,023 3,100 3,058 -42 23,727 90,843
Jan-26 3,101 3,101 3,013 3,014 3,088 3,041 -47 86,934 128,763
Palm Oil
Turnover: 856,651 lots, or 74.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 9,584 9,584 9,584 0 0 882
Apr-25 8,900 9,010 8,900 8,974 9,070 8,962 -108 6,328 5,001
May-25 8,766 8,836 8,746 8,802 8,910 8,792 -118 772,723 455,063
Jun-25 8,620 8,650 8,574 8,628 8,706 8,614 -92 918 1,993
Jul-25 8,492 8,492 8,428 8,488 8,536 8,466 -70 479 961
Aug-25 8,568 8,568 8,318 8,368 8,412 8,356 -56 86 199
Sep-25 8,266 8,298 8,234 8,288 8,336 8,270 -66 74,335 133,813
Oct-25 8,238 8,252 8,208 8,242 8,290 8,230 -60 42 701
Nov-25 8,204 8,236 8,198 8,212 8,262 8,204 -58 9 1,365
Dec-25 8,200 8,220 8,186 8,208 8,246 8,196 -50 15 924
Jan-26 8,192 8,204 8,156 8,192 8,244 8,182 -62 1,710 5,860
Feb-26 8,196 8,200 8,190 8,190 8,238 8,194 -44 6 53
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 685,764 lots, or 53.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 8,256 8,256 8,256 0 0 109
May-25 7,900 7,906 7,770 7,814 7,934 7,844 -90 560,401 592,933
Jul-25 7,776 7,778 7,648 7,684 7,800 7,712 -88 6,664 10,049
Aug-25 7,800 7,806 7,686 7,726 7,824 7,750 -74 1,498 1,899
Sep-25 7,790 7,790 7,678 7,718 7,812 7,740 -72 115,133 305,102
Nov-25 7,814 7,814 7,714 7,750 7,832 7,774 -58 147 2,450
Dec-25 7,806 7,808 7,718 7,752 7,824 7,782 -42 42 90
Jan-26 7,780 7,782 7,684 7,716 7,808 7,740 -68 1,879 5,782

Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322