The Great Negotiator. The Energy Report 02/26/2025

Oh man, can President Trump’s leadership move markets. President Trump’s deal making and negotiating skills are changing the hearts and minds of world leaders as he leaves his mark on the oil market and  works towards world peace. President Trump’s peace initiative is raising real hopes for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The petroleum markets are already starting to price in the possibility that Russian oil and gas will start to flow freely with reduced sanctions. That is fast tracking the possibility of peace and helping reduce the cost of energy which will help the poor and middle class, and just about everybody else.

President Trump caused a drop in oil after he said that lifting the sanctions on Russia were on the table at some point. Yet what really raised a stir was a classic President Trump move and a downward move in oil.

Oil prices were already under pressure after weak consumer confidence but when President Trump said he might meet with the man he called a dictator on Wednesday, it caused a flurry. President Donald Trump did call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” on Wednesday and warned he had to move quickly to secure peace or risk losing his country. Well son of a gun, what do you know, Volodymyr Zelenskiy seemed to get the message. Not only did he offer to step down from leading his country if he was an impediment to a peace deal, it seems he is dealing with President Trump to pay American taxpayers back for the billions they have spent on this war.

President Trump said that “We have pretty much negotiated our deal on rare earths.” Fox News said that President Donald Trump teased a possible meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Monday, amid what he called his “serious discussions” with Russian President Vladimir Putin — which could involve European peacekeeping troops — about ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. Now even Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would allow his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump access to rare earth metals in Ukraine’s annexed regions as part of a future deal.

The Trump administration is seeking to recoup the cost of aid sent to the war-torn country by gaining access to rare earth minerals like titanium, iron and uranium. “It’ll be a deal with rare earths and various other things. And he would like to come. As I understand it, here, to sign it. And that would be great with me,” Trump said. “I think they then have to get it approved by their council or whoever might approve it, but I’m sure that will happen.” Trump said the deal is “very beneficial to their economy,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added it is “very close.” “One-yard line,” Bessent said according to Fox News.

This comes as globalist leaders are shaking their head at the incredible success that President Trump is having. Germany and the UK are increasing defense spending. Trump has called on Nato members to spend five per cent of GDP on defense — more than double the alliance’s current spending target. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has agreed at least partially, as he announced on Tuesday that the country’s defense spending would be hiked to 2.5 per cent of the GDP by 2027, up by 0.2 per cent of the current spending. Starmer’s declaration came just hours before he departs for Washington where he will meet US President Donald Trump.

Bloomberg reports that Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz has opened talks with the Social Democrats to quickly approve as much as €200 billion ($210 billion) in special defense spending, according to a person familiar with those discussions. 

Presidents Trump’s disgust with the way that Hamas traded hostages could lead to another round of military conflict against Hamas has proven that they are not the type of organization that can be left in a civilized world. Now reports say that Hamas says it has reached a deal with mediators on the release of the 620 Palestinian prisoners who were due to be freed by Israel last week and “an equivalent number of women and children” detained in Gaza since the war began. Israel has confirmed the agreement without giving details.

The Russian News Agency Tass is reporting that Kazakhstan oil flows into CPC are a back to normal levels.

Now Back to Petroleum. At one time BP stood for British Petroleum. Then later they tried to appease the climate crowd and changed the meaning to Beyond Petroleum.  Now after investor backlash and after losing money, the new meaning for BP is back to petroleum and back to common sense. BP is going back to petroleum is an indictment of many of the wacky green energy policies as well as other globalist agendas that the people of common sense around the world are pushing back against.

The BBC reported that  [Back to Petroleum] will cut its renewable energy investments and instead focus on increasing oil and gas production. The energy giant revealed the shift in strategy on Wednesday following pressure from some investors unhappy its profits and share price have been much lower than its rivals. BP said it would increase its investments in oil and gas by about 20% to $10bn (£7.9bn) a year, while decreasing previously planned renewables funding by more than $5bn (£3.9bn).The move comes as rivals Shell and Norwegian company Equinor have also scaled back plans to invest in green energy and US President Donald Trump’s “drill baby drill” comments have encouraged investment in fossil fuels.

President Trump shook up the metals markets as he said he was opening a probe on copper. Not because of supply issues but for national security issues. This coincides with the Trump Administration’s desire to increase electricity capacity to meet the demands for artificial intelligence and power centers of the future. That is not going to happen without significant amounts of copper. In fact, if you look at the increasing demand for copper in the years to come, we’re heading into a structural shortage. President Trump is way ahead of the curve on this and that is why he’s looking to secure supplies to the United States so we’re  not left powerless in the economy of the future.

Crude oil inventories have been building in recent weeks. That may change according to the American Petroleum Institute report. We saw that crude supplies fell by 640,000 barrels last week. The API also reported the gasoline rose by 537,000 barrels and distillate inventories fell by 1.109 million barrels. Today we’ll see the Energy Information Administration report, and the market will focus on that.

Natural gas futures bounced back as weather reports say that the warm up could be just a spring-time tease and we could get another blast of winter. In the big picture President Trump’s desire to get Japan and Korea and Europe to buy more natural gas and to open up natural gas exports from Alaska is acknowledging the fact that the demand for liquid gas is going to grow dramatically in the years to come and the United States has the ability to be a major player in this growth sector. 

In its latest report Shell said that, “the global trade in LNG is set to rise significantly by 2040, driven by Asian economic growth, the need to decarbonize heavy industry and transport and the emerging growth in the energy-intense tech sector. Shell says that LNG is becoming a cost-effective fuel for shipping and road transport that can bring down emissions. Longer term, existing gas infrastructure could be used to import bio-LNG or synthetic LNG and NG and repurposed for the import of green hydrogen. They report demand for gas continues to gather pace across Asia, with China and India significantly increasing their re-gasification and downstream infrastructure.

More than 170 million tonnes of new LNG supply is set to come on to the market by 2030, helping to meet growing long-term global demand for gas. But project start-up timings remain uncertain. Europe and Japan will continue to require LNG to fill a wide gap between energy diversification ambitions and actual investment levels. Yet concern about LNG startup times will become more certain in the US with Biden out and Trump in.

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