We all know the ‘dog days of summer’ when the long-drawn-out days are full of heat and in most cases the uncomfortable humidity. However, it seems no one has converted that same thought into winter. In this case it’s nearing the end of winter, but we still have to deal with cold, blustery, dry days where nothing feels warm, no matter how high the heat is. We had our own version of that this week with local highs early in the week reaching not quite a positive sign on the thermostat. It’s rare days like that where I’m not quite as upset about being behind a desk vs. the fresh out of college days riding pens and having to make sure my feet were still in the stirrups (as I could not feel them). While no one has officially coined a term for a wintery dog day and my creativeness has run dry, I can see 50s in my forecast. With that heat wave also comes the reminder than its only February. Spring is coming, but mother nature always finds a way to humble us.
Corn futures pulled back this week, with a back and forth trade, as March was down a nickel from last Friday. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production back up just 2,000 barrels per day to 1.084 million bpd in the week of 2/14. Stocks of ethanol were back on the rise, up 720,000 barrels to 26.218 million. The delayed Friday Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.454 MMT during the week that concluded on February 13. That took export commitments to 47.87 MMT, which is 77% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 74%. Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report indicated managed money speculators in corn futures and options adding back 21,144 contracts to their net long position as of February 18, taking their net long to 353,533 contracts.
Wheat slipped back lower across the three markets this week. Chicago March was down a dime (-1.67%) on the week. March Kansas City posted a 12 cent loss this week (-1.93%). MPLS March was 1 3/4 cents (0.28%) lower than last Friday. Snow over the weekend added some much needed snow cover to parts of the Plains ahead of a cold spell The weekly Export Sales report tallied another 532,674 MT in US wheat export bookings during the week of February 13. That took export sale commitments to 19.874 MMT, which is now 86% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 94% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data indicated spec funds cutting another 21,232 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of February 18 to 61,577 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 22,090 contracts, a reduction of another 8,158 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans had another choppy week, back up 3 ½ cents (0.34%) from last week. Meal futures were down $1.10/ton this week, with bean oil up 74 points since last Friday. NOPA data from Tuesday showed the string of record monthly crush continuing, at 200.38 mbu in January. Stocks were still tight at the end of the month, at 1.27 billion lbs. This week’s Export Sales report pegged 2024/25 soybean bookings back up to 480,278 MT in the week of 2/13. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 43.736 MMT. That is still 88% of the USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, now in line with the average pace. CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting back their net long in soybean futures and options by another 11,949 contracts to 19,342 contracts as of 2/18.
Live cattle clawed back a very slight gain this week, with February up 7 cents from last Friday. Cash trade continued to slide, with $199-200 reported across the country, down $3-4 on the week. Feeders were $1.60 (0.60%) higher on the week in the March contract. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $2.61 week/week to $278.23. USDA Wholesale boxed beef data showed prices continuing their descent, as the Chc/Sel spread was at $8.21/cwt. Choice boxes were down $3.93 (-1.2%) to $314.77, while Select was $4.58 lower (-1.5%) to $302.56. Cattle on Feed data from Friday showed January placements up 1.73% from last year at 1.822 million head, with marketings 1.41% higher to 1.869 million head. February 1 on feed inventory was down 0.69% at 11.716 million head. Weekly beef production was 491.0 million lbs this week, back up 0.4% from last week and even with the same week last year. Year to date production is down 3.6% so far, on 8% fewer animals killed. CFTC data showed more longs exiting the live cattle futures and options market in the week ending on February 18, down 7,240 contracts to 128,469 contracts.
Hogs fell back lower this week, with contracts down $4.925 from last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $3.16 this week at $88.06 as of February 19. This week’s USDA Pork Carcass Cutout value was back down $4.92 this week (-4.8%). The belly was again the leader, this time to the downside, losing $33.31. Pork production was up 0.1% from last week and 0.8% below the same week last year at 551.8 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 5.2%, as slaughter is 5.6% lower. Friday’s Export Sales report showed a total of 25,628 MT in pork sales in the week that ended on February 13, back up from last week’s low. Shipments of pork totaled 29,954 MT, a 4-week low. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed speculators in lean hog futures and options adding another 11,522 contracts to their net long position as of February 18 to a net long 114,148 contracts.
Cotton futures were back to lower trade this week with March 103 points (-1.53%) lower. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales at 312,452 RB of cotton sold in the week of February 13. Shipments were the largest so far this MY at 298,278 RB. Commitments are now at 9.443 million RB, which is 92% of the USDA forecast, compared to the normal sales pace of 92% of USDA’s export projection. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up 68 points this week, to 54.67 cents/lb. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report from CFTC showed managed money spec traders cutting back another 3,095 contracts from their previous large net short position as of 2/18 to 57,386 contacts.
Market Watch
Next week is back to a normal schedule, with the weekly Export Inspections report out on Monday morning. Monday is also first notice day for March cotton futures. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday morning, with the monthly Cold Storage report out that afternoon. The weekly Export Sales will be back to a Thursday morning released morning. Thursday and Friday will be the USDA Outlook Forum, with a first look at the OCE armchair estimates. Friday is also first notice day for March grain futures and the last trade day for Feb live cattle.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have rallied more than $1 off their December low. Since then they have gotten to withing 1 ¼ cent of the 38.2% Fib retracement off the November 2023 high at $10.77. The 200-day moving average (purple line) also stopped things, now at $10.655. That was followed by an MACD sell signal, on a high ADX at the time. Recent action has shifted more to a consolidation pattern with stochastics in neutral. We have broken the 1/3 speedine support off that rally, and are walking up the low side at the moment. If we extend lower, the 38.2% Fib retracement is at $10.31 ¾. Beyond that may indicate a test of $10.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
The Winter Version of Dog Days. Ag Marketing Report 02/24/2025
We all know the ‘dog days of summer’ when the long-drawn-out days are full of heat and in most cases the uncomfortable humidity. However, it seems no one has converted that same thought into winter. In this case it’s nearing the end of winter, but we still have to deal with cold, blustery, dry days where nothing feels warm, no matter how high the heat is. We had our own version of that this week with local highs early in the week reaching not quite a positive sign on the thermostat. It’s rare days like that where I’m not quite as upset about being behind a desk vs. the fresh out of college days riding pens and having to make sure my feet were still in the stirrups (as I could not feel them). While no one has officially coined a term for a wintery dog day and my creativeness has run dry, I can see 50s in my forecast. With that heat wave also comes the reminder than its only February. Spring is coming, but mother nature always finds a way to humble us.
Corn futures pulled back this week, with a back and forth trade, as March was down a nickel from last Friday. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production back up just 2,000 barrels per day to 1.084 million bpd in the week of 2/14. Stocks of ethanol were back on the rise, up 720,000 barrels to 26.218 million. The delayed Friday Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.454 MMT during the week that concluded on February 13. That took export commitments to 47.87 MMT, which is 77% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 74%. Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report indicated managed money speculators in corn futures and options adding back 21,144 contracts to their net long position as of February 18, taking their net long to 353,533 contracts.
Wheat slipped back lower across the three markets this week. Chicago March was down a dime (-1.67%) on the week. March Kansas City posted a 12 cent loss this week (-1.93%). MPLS March was 1 3/4 cents (0.28%) lower than last Friday. Snow over the weekend added some much needed snow cover to parts of the Plains ahead of a cold spell The weekly Export Sales report tallied another 532,674 MT in US wheat export bookings during the week of February 13. That took export sale commitments to 19.874 MMT, which is now 86% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 94% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data indicated spec funds cutting another 21,232 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of February 18 to 61,577 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 22,090 contracts, a reduction of another 8,158 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans had another choppy week, back up 3 ½ cents (0.34%) from last week. Meal futures were down $1.10/ton this week, with bean oil up 74 points since last Friday. NOPA data from Tuesday showed the string of record monthly crush continuing, at 200.38 mbu in January. Stocks were still tight at the end of the month, at 1.27 billion lbs. This week’s Export Sales report pegged 2024/25 soybean bookings back up to 480,278 MT in the week of 2/13. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 43.736 MMT. That is still 88% of the USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, now in line with the average pace. CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting back their net long in soybean futures and options by another 11,949 contracts to 19,342 contracts as of 2/18.
Live cattle clawed back a very slight gain this week, with February up 7 cents from last Friday. Cash trade continued to slide, with $199-200 reported across the country, down $3-4 on the week. Feeders were $1.60 (0.60%) higher on the week in the March contract. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $2.61 week/week to $278.23. USDA Wholesale boxed beef data showed prices continuing their descent, as the Chc/Sel spread was at $8.21/cwt. Choice boxes were down $3.93 (-1.2%) to $314.77, while Select was $4.58 lower (-1.5%) to $302.56. Cattle on Feed data from Friday showed January placements up 1.73% from last year at 1.822 million head, with marketings 1.41% higher to 1.869 million head. February 1 on feed inventory was down 0.69% at 11.716 million head. Weekly beef production was 491.0 million lbs this week, back up 0.4% from last week and even with the same week last year. Year to date production is down 3.6% so far, on 8% fewer animals killed. CFTC data showed more longs exiting the live cattle futures and options market in the week ending on February 18, down 7,240 contracts to 128,469 contracts.
Hogs fell back lower this week, with contracts down $4.925 from last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $3.16 this week at $88.06 as of February 19. This week’s USDA Pork Carcass Cutout value was back down $4.92 this week (-4.8%). The belly was again the leader, this time to the downside, losing $33.31. Pork production was up 0.1% from last week and 0.8% below the same week last year at 551.8 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 5.2%, as slaughter is 5.6% lower. Friday’s Export Sales report showed a total of 25,628 MT in pork sales in the week that ended on February 13, back up from last week’s low. Shipments of pork totaled 29,954 MT, a 4-week low. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed speculators in lean hog futures and options adding another 11,522 contracts to their net long position as of February 18 to a net long 114,148 contracts.
Cotton futures were back to lower trade this week with March 103 points (-1.53%) lower. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales at 312,452 RB of cotton sold in the week of February 13. Shipments were the largest so far this MY at 298,278 RB. Commitments are now at 9.443 million RB, which is 92% of the USDA forecast, compared to the normal sales pace of 92% of USDA’s export projection. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up 68 points this week, to 54.67 cents/lb. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report from CFTC showed managed money spec traders cutting back another 3,095 contracts from their previous large net short position as of 2/18 to 57,386 contacts.
Market Watch
Next week is back to a normal schedule, with the weekly Export Inspections report out on Monday morning. Monday is also first notice day for March cotton futures. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday morning, with the monthly Cold Storage report out that afternoon. The weekly Export Sales will be back to a Thursday morning released morning. Thursday and Friday will be the USDA Outlook Forum, with a first look at the OCE armchair estimates. Friday is also first notice day for March grain futures and the last trade day for Feb live cattle.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have rallied more than $1 off their December low. Since then they have gotten to withing 1 ¼ cent of the 38.2% Fib retracement off the November 2023 high at $10.77. The 200-day moving average (purple line) also stopped things, now at $10.655. That was followed by an MACD sell signal, on a high ADX at the time. Recent action has shifted more to a consolidation pattern with stochastics in neutral. We have broken the 1/3 speedine support off that rally, and are walking up the low side at the moment. If we extend lower, the 38.2% Fib retracement is at $10.31 ¾. Beyond that may indicate a test of $10.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.