AgMaster Report – 02/19/2025

MAR WHT

Mar Wht has assumed the unlikely role as the new upside leader at the CBOT after months of toiling in the sideways congestion (530-590)! The above chart clearly shows the upside break-out due to a plethora of fundamentals – artic cold in the US Plains & Black Sea – threatening Winterkill, a plummeting US dollar, a bulky short open interest exceeding 100,000 contracts, lower Russian production & exports & a ramping-up of US exports! So far the Trump Reciprocal tariffs haven’t impacted wht as the tariff deadline of April 1 has allowed time for negotiation!

 

MAR CORN

Likewise, Mar Corn has breached the upside of its recent sideways pattern (470-500) today – supported by a # of strong fundamentals – a weakening US Dollar, positive exports ( Thur Sales – 2.00mmt & Tues Inspections – 1.61mmt), tight global stocks as reflected in the recent Feb WASDE, a dry Argentina with a gd-ex rating dropping 9% & finally generally delayed implementation of the Trump Tariffs!

 

MAR BEANS

Mar Beans continue to be the “weak sister” in the grain complex – hindered by a reputed record bean crop in South America – currently about 50% in & sluggish exports – today inspections only 720,000 mt & last Thur sales at a meager 210,000 mt! And President Trump & China President XI have yet to meet to discuss mitigating the tariffs! But beans will benefit from the completion of S/A harvest – eliminating harvest pressure & also from spillover support from its sister mkts – Corn & Wheat!

 

APL CAT

Apl Cat finally found a level high enough to choke off demand at 207.50 & the bulky long OI fund position was quick to liquidate – forcing a 3-wk $13 drop in price! Demand easily shifted by the cost-conscious consumer from very high-priced beef to very inexpensive pork as the Apl Cat surrendered its upside leadership to Apl Hogs! However, now the contract is oversold & due for a correction!

 

APL HOGS

Hand-in-hand with the mass capitulation of April Cat was the steady rally of April Hogs gaining $8 while the April Cat lost $13! The natural economic advantage of pork over beef in the supermarket finally kicked in – as the wary consumer – recently bludgeoned by the doubling of egg prices – went for the much cheaper cuts of pork! As well, exports have improved as the dollar has fallen to 2 month lows!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337