AgMaster Report – 02/13/2025

MAR CORN

The Feb WASDE came out Tues at 11am – & was widely construed as neutral with US Supply/Demand #’s staying the same due to Trumps unpredictable tariff program! However the mkt rallied in front of the report – so the mkt quickly extracted those gains yesterday closing in the lower part of Mar Corn’s trading range! Yet, today, the mkt opened at 8:30am with a sharp 10 cent rally – as the mkt refocused on the positive aspects of the USDA #’s –including a reduction in Argentine corn & bean production – as well as world stockpiles that fell to 10 year lows! Also, 2 flash sales of corn/beans were announced this morning at 8am!

Finally, weather issues still exist in South America with Arg being too dry & Brazil too wet!

 

MAR BEANS

Mar Beans survived the USDA REPORT with only small losses but today dropped to the low end of the recent 60 cent trading range with double-digit losses with concerns about improved rains in Argentina, the lack of any substantive talks between Presidents Trump & XI & ideas that the smaller Arg crops would be more than offset by predicted record Brazilian harvest! As well, the very large long Bean OI is weighing on the mkt!

 

MAR WHT

Mar Wht has had just a minor reaction to the FEB WASDE – closing just a little bit lower yesterday & the same today – while both days, the mkt was at one time 5-7 higher! Lower US & Global stocks off the report along with a cold snap in the WW areas have helped support! The contract is structurally different than Mar Corn/Beans where both contracts carry quite a large long fund position whereas Mar Wht instead has a large short fund position so the wht contract is more likely to rally on good news than break on bad news!

 

APL CAT

It all changed for the April Cat after their amazing $20 surge (186-206) from early Nov to late Jan – as prices finally reached prices where demand was unsustainable & the massive long fund position liquidated! In just 2 short weeks, the contract plummeted $12 as the cost-conscious consumer quickly shifted their buying preferences to much cheaper pork!

 

APL HOGS

A seismic shift in the livestock futures occurred as Apl Hogs scored new contract highs today after a gap-and-go on the opening – adding to a small upside gap left on 2/5/25 – establishing the contract as the new upside leader in the meats! After a limit-down on 2-3-25, Apl Hogs quickly reversed direction – going almost vertical for an $8 upside run! Demand – per usual – was the motivating factor after record high cattle prices vs cheap pork persuaded the consumer to opt for the much less expensive meat!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337