The Super Bowl is this Sunday, with the Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. The latter are going for a 3-peat, and while I have no dog in the fight (as with millions of other Americans), I will be tuning into it. Like the big game on Sunday, the bulls and bears have been battling it out in the last couple weeks, trying to see which will come out on top. The wheat bulls are taking care of business, with the bears in the cattle coming out victorious. After a few weeks of bull victories, the corn and soybean markets are becoming a hotspot with a battle going on between the two this week. Can the Bulls (the Chiefs in this case) manage to hold their spot as the top dog? Or will the bears take the crown?
Corn found some late week pressure, but still managed to pull out a gain of 5 ½ cents (1.14%). EIA data showed ethanol production back up 97,000 barrels per day to 1.112 million bpd in the week of 1/31. Stocks of ethanol were back up this week with the bounce back in output, 690,000 barrels higher to 26.412 million barrels. Grain Crushing data from NASS showed a total of 473.179 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in December, up just 0.3% from last month but down 2.28% from a year ago. Export Sales data indicated 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.477 MMT for the week ending on January 30. That took export commitments to 44.8 MMT, which is 72% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 70%. Census data showed December corn exports at 5.445 MMT (214.36 mbu), which was also the 4th largest December total all-time. CFTC data showed managed money in corn futures and options increasing their net long position by another 13,496 contracts as of February 4, taking their net long to 364,217 contracts.
Wheat posted another week of stronger trade across the three exchanges this week. Chicago March was up 23 1/4 cents (4.16 %) on the week. March Kansas City posted a 25 cent gain this week (+4.32%). MPLS March was 12 1/4 cents (3.4%) higher than last Friday. The quarterly Flour Milling report from USDA showed 230.79 mbu of wheat ground for flour in October through December, a 4 mbu increase from last year. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export bookings at 438,867 MT during the week of January 30. That took export sale commitments to 18.77 MMT, which is now 81% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 90% average selling pace. December wheat export shipments totaled 1.653 MMT (60.73 mbu), a 4-year high for the month and up 16.64% from last month. Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting 20,340 contracts to their nets short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of January 28 to 90,442 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 35,981 contracts, a reduction of 6,405 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans had a choppy week, but bulls came out on top with a gain of 7 ½ cents (0.72%). Meal futures ticked up just 30 cents/ton this week, with bean oil back down 13 points since last Friday. The monthly Fats & Oils report indicated a total of 217.7 mbu of soybeans were crushed during December, a 3.65% increase from November and 6.57% larger than last year. Soy oil stocks were at 1.696 billion lbs, a drop of 7% from a year ago. This week’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at just 387,718 MT in the week of 1/30. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 43.07 MMT. That is 87% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, above the 85% average pace. Soybean export shipments during December totaled 7.962 MMT (292.57 mbu), which was the 4th largest December number all time but a decline of 19.38% from November. Commitment of Traders data indicated spec traders in soybean futures and options adding 533 contracts to their net long of 57,029 contracts as of February 4.
Live cattle was under pressure this week , as February was down $3.825 (-1.87%). Cash trade was steady this week, reported at $206 the South, with Northern trade slipping to $208, both down ~$2 on the week. Feeders were back down $10.825 (3.93%) on the week in the March contract. The CME Feeder Cattle Index slipped back $5.48 week/week to $275.59. Some of the feeder pressure from early in the week came from the USDA reopening the border to feeder cattle imports. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $8.97/cwt. Choice was down $5.81 (-1.8%) to $321.87, while Select was $4.17 lower (-1.3$) to $312.90. Weekly beef production was down 3% from last week but up 0.1% above the same week last year at 510.6 million lbs. USDA’s Export Sales report showed a total of 24,907 MT in the week ending on January 30, a calendar year high. Export shipments totaled 19,845 MT. December beef exports were 258.9 million lbs, which was up 2.6% from the December 2023 total and 2.3% larger than in November. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options backing off of their record net long position by 6,535 contracts to 150,374 contracts as of Tuesday.
Hogs were climbing again this week, up $3.075 since last Friday, a 3.65% gain. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.99 this week at $85.05 as of February 5. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $2.25 this week (2.4%). The belly was again the leader to the upside, up $10.18, with the butt and rib the only primals reported lower. Pork production totaled 553.1 million lbs this week, back down 1.6% from last week and 2.5% below the same week last year. Year to date pork production is down 6.5%, as slaughter is 7.0% lower. Pork export sales totaled 50,671 MT in the week of 1/30, a high so far for the calendar year. Export shipments totaled 37,762 MT, the largest in 3 weeks. Pork exports during December totaled 645.8 million lbs, which was the second largest for the month all time. That was a 0.4% increase from last month and 0.3% larger than last year. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 3,392 contracts to their net long position as of February 4 to a net position of 95,329 contracts.
Cotton crept lower again this week, with March down 25 points for a 0.38% loss. This afternoon’s Cotton Systems report showed a total of 216 RB of cotton consumed domestically in December, with stocks at 989 RB. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales down to just 188,909 RB of cotton sold in the week of January 30. Shipments were down from last week at 153,512 RB. Commitments are now at 8.886 million RB, which is 86% of the new USDA forecast, compared to the normal sales pace of 88% of USDA’s export projection. December cotton exports totaled 843,230 bales according to Census data. That was down 23.91% from last year but up 28.02% from November. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back down 84 points this week, to 53.18 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money spec traders adding another 8,833 contracts to their new record net short position as of 2/4 at 62,407 contacts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. It is also first notice day for February Live Cattle. On Tuesday, the USDA will release their monthly WASDE report. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday morning. CPI data will be released on Wednesday, with PPI data out on Thursday. The USDA Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning. On Friday, February Lean Hog futures and options expire.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have rallied more than a dollar off the low from back in December. In that time frame, they have broken and held each of the major moving average resistances via the 18-day (10.50 ¾), 40-day ($10.26 ½) and 100-day ($10.35). The pain as of late has been the 200-day at 10.70 ½, putting a halt this rally. The 38.2% Fib retracement has been broken at $10.53 ½, with the 50% at $10.82 ¼. Thus far, the bull trend has remained intact, with MACD still bullish. Momentum, however, is starting to run out. The first place to keep an eye on in the case of a pullback is the Bollinger midline (18-day moving average) at $10.50 ¾, which has held on several of the last tests since the first of the year.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
The Big Game. Ag Marketing Report 02/10/2025
The Super Bowl is this Sunday, with the Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. The latter are going for a 3-peat, and while I have no dog in the fight (as with millions of other Americans), I will be tuning into it. Like the big game on Sunday, the bulls and bears have been battling it out in the last couple weeks, trying to see which will come out on top. The wheat bulls are taking care of business, with the bears in the cattle coming out victorious. After a few weeks of bull victories, the corn and soybean markets are becoming a hotspot with a battle going on between the two this week. Can the Bulls (the Chiefs in this case) manage to hold their spot as the top dog? Or will the bears take the crown?
Corn found some late week pressure, but still managed to pull out a gain of 5 ½ cents (1.14%). EIA data showed ethanol production back up 97,000 barrels per day to 1.112 million bpd in the week of 1/31. Stocks of ethanol were back up this week with the bounce back in output, 690,000 barrels higher to 26.412 million barrels. Grain Crushing data from NASS showed a total of 473.179 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in December, up just 0.3% from last month but down 2.28% from a year ago. Export Sales data indicated 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.477 MMT for the week ending on January 30. That took export commitments to 44.8 MMT, which is 72% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 70%. Census data showed December corn exports at 5.445 MMT (214.36 mbu), which was also the 4th largest December total all-time. CFTC data showed managed money in corn futures and options increasing their net long position by another 13,496 contracts as of February 4, taking their net long to 364,217 contracts.
Wheat posted another week of stronger trade across the three exchanges this week. Chicago March was up 23 1/4 cents (4.16 %) on the week. March Kansas City posted a 25 cent gain this week (+4.32%). MPLS March was 12 1/4 cents (3.4%) higher than last Friday. The quarterly Flour Milling report from USDA showed 230.79 mbu of wheat ground for flour in October through December, a 4 mbu increase from last year. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export bookings at 438,867 MT during the week of January 30. That took export sale commitments to 18.77 MMT, which is now 81% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 90% average selling pace. December wheat export shipments totaled 1.653 MMT (60.73 mbu), a 4-year high for the month and up 16.64% from last month. Commitment of Traders data showed specs cutting 20,340 contracts to their nets short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of January 28 to 90,442 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 35,981 contracts, a reduction of 6,405 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans had a choppy week, but bulls came out on top with a gain of 7 ½ cents (0.72%). Meal futures ticked up just 30 cents/ton this week, with bean oil back down 13 points since last Friday. The monthly Fats & Oils report indicated a total of 217.7 mbu of soybeans were crushed during December, a 3.65% increase from November and 6.57% larger than last year. Soy oil stocks were at 1.696 billion lbs, a drop of 7% from a year ago. This week’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at just 387,718 MT in the week of 1/30. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 43.07 MMT. That is 87% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, above the 85% average pace. Soybean export shipments during December totaled 7.962 MMT (292.57 mbu), which was the 4th largest December number all time but a decline of 19.38% from November. Commitment of Traders data indicated spec traders in soybean futures and options adding 533 contracts to their net long of 57,029 contracts as of February 4.
Live cattle was under pressure this week , as February was down $3.825 (-1.87%). Cash trade was steady this week, reported at $206 the South, with Northern trade slipping to $208, both down ~$2 on the week. Feeders were back down $10.825 (3.93%) on the week in the March contract. The CME Feeder Cattle Index slipped back $5.48 week/week to $275.59. Some of the feeder pressure from early in the week came from the USDA reopening the border to feeder cattle imports. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $8.97/cwt. Choice was down $5.81 (-1.8%) to $321.87, while Select was $4.17 lower (-1.3$) to $312.90. Weekly beef production was down 3% from last week but up 0.1% above the same week last year at 510.6 million lbs. USDA’s Export Sales report showed a total of 24,907 MT in the week ending on January 30, a calendar year high. Export shipments totaled 19,845 MT. December beef exports were 258.9 million lbs, which was up 2.6% from the December 2023 total and 2.3% larger than in November. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options backing off of their record net long position by 6,535 contracts to 150,374 contracts as of Tuesday.
Hogs were climbing again this week, up $3.075 since last Friday, a 3.65% gain. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.99 this week at $85.05 as of February 5. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $2.25 this week (2.4%). The belly was again the leader to the upside, up $10.18, with the butt and rib the only primals reported lower. Pork production totaled 553.1 million lbs this week, back down 1.6% from last week and 2.5% below the same week last year. Year to date pork production is down 6.5%, as slaughter is 7.0% lower. Pork export sales totaled 50,671 MT in the week of 1/30, a high so far for the calendar year. Export shipments totaled 37,762 MT, the largest in 3 weeks. Pork exports during December totaled 645.8 million lbs, which was the second largest for the month all time. That was a 0.4% increase from last month and 0.3% larger than last year. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 3,392 contracts to their net long position as of February 4 to a net position of 95,329 contracts.
Cotton crept lower again this week, with March down 25 points for a 0.38% loss. This afternoon’s Cotton Systems report showed a total of 216 RB of cotton consumed domestically in December, with stocks at 989 RB. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales down to just 188,909 RB of cotton sold in the week of January 30. Shipments were down from last week at 153,512 RB. Commitments are now at 8.886 million RB, which is 86% of the new USDA forecast, compared to the normal sales pace of 88% of USDA’s export projection. December cotton exports totaled 843,230 bales according to Census data. That was down 23.91% from last year but up 28.02% from November. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back down 84 points this week, to 53.18 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money spec traders adding another 8,833 contracts to their new record net short position as of 2/4 at 62,407 contacts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. It is also first notice day for February Live Cattle. On Tuesday, the USDA will release their monthly WASDE report. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday morning. CPI data will be released on Wednesday, with PPI data out on Thursday. The USDA Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning. On Friday, February Lean Hog futures and options expire.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have rallied more than a dollar off the low from back in December. In that time frame, they have broken and held each of the major moving average resistances via the 18-day (10.50 ¾), 40-day ($10.26 ½) and 100-day ($10.35). The pain as of late has been the 200-day at 10.70 ½, putting a halt this rally. The 38.2% Fib retracement has been broken at $10.53 ½, with the 50% at $10.82 ¼. Thus far, the bull trend has remained intact, with MACD still bullish. Momentum, however, is starting to run out. The first place to keep an eye on in the case of a pullback is the Bollinger midline (18-day moving average) at $10.50 ¾, which has held on several of the last tests since the first of the year.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.