Bill Moore
William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
AgMaster Report – 02/05/2025
MAR CORN
To say the least, we’ve had an extremely volatile 1st two days of Feb as Trump at first implemented 25% tariffs on Mexico & Canada & 10% on China – only to delay the Mex/Can for a month yesterday morning & possibly the same for China as Trump & Xi talk today! The mkt reacted in kind – breaking 25 cents off the highs Mon – only to recoup all those losses since Mon am – with Mar Corn currently challenging its recent $5.00 highs! Helping the gains is a sharply lower US $! It makes one wonder if the tariffs weren’t simply a bargaining chip all along! The other supportive fundamental is of course adverse South American weather – way too dry in Arg – reducing their production & too wet in Brazil delaying their harvest! and cumulative export inspections are running 25% over 2024!
MAR BEANS
Mar Beans also recovered sharply from the early Mon losses with the Mex/Can tariff delay but China is more important to the beans & the fact that the retaliatory measures taken by China were limited in nature & seen as almost an olive branch offering by China – and that helped beans rally as well! Finally, Trump & China President Xi are talking today & that may further mitigate the situation – much like Trumps conversation with the Presidents of Mexico & Canada seemed to mend their differences Mon! Export inspections are a solid 15% over 2024 & the weather in S/A continues to be problematical! All this adds up to a Mar Bean contract today challenging its Jan highs!
MAR WHT
A dry, cold forecast for the central plains, tariff delays, strong rallies in corn & beans & export inspections running 24% over 2024 – all contributed to Mar Wht rallying to its highest level since 11-21-24! A weekly close over the 530-570 congestion that Mar Wht has been confined to for 2 months would be very positive!
APRIL CAT
All of a sudden, the one-time bullish juggernaut has corrected $10 (207-197) in just one short week – as the massive fund longs have been heavily liquidating! The tipping point happened yesterday when despite the tariff delay, April Cat still closed lower! The record high mkt finally found a level that discouraged demand! The current break should support at 196 but mkt is still plenty concerned about future tariffs!
APRIL HOGS
Much like its ag counterparts, Apl Hogs have ridden the “tariff roller-coaster” the last 2 days – plummeting down the limit Mon & today nearing recovering all those losses to close down only 50 cents for the week! With Trump deferring the Mex/Can tariffs Mon & today talking with China’s President, the hog mkt is hopeful that its badly needed export flow won’t be interrupted! Plus demand-wise, pork has a big economic advantage over beef in the supermarkets!
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