Last week, and for much of this week, the market was calling the move for a February 1 tariff deadline on Mexico, Canada, and China a bluff move by President Trump. Last weekend’s move with Columbia not taking deportees and Trump threatening to issue an emergency tariff on the country resolving in no tariffs intensified the thought that. Well, here we are mere hours from February and after much debate, late in the week, the President is sticking with his guns (unless things change by then). While we don’t know all the details, it seems like there will likely be some retaliatory measures put on US goods to either country come Monday. Sometimes it not a bluff at all, though this has been the most widely announced tariff in recent history.
Corn pulled back this week, with March down 4 ½ cents as the weekend tariff threat from Mexico caused some longs to take profits ahead of the weekend. EIA data showed ethanol production backing off 84,000 barrels per day to 1.015 million bpd in the week of 1/24. Stocks of ethanol were back down this week with the drop in output, down 152,000 barrels to 25.722 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings slipping back to 1.36 MMT for the week ending on January 23. That took export commitments to 43.3 MMT, which is 70% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 66%. Accumulated shipments have totaled 20.933 MMT, 34% of the projected total and exceeding the 29% average pace. CFTC data indicated managed money spec traders in corn futures and options increasing their net long position by 39,043 contracts as of January 28, taking their net long to 350,721.
Wheat posted stronger trade across the three markets this week, despite a late week pressure. Chicago March was up 15 1/2 cents (2.85%) on the week. March Kansas City posted a 19 3/4 cent gain this week (+3.53%). MPLS March was 20 1/4 cents (3.4%) higher than last Friday. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export business back down to just 456,086 MT during the week of January 23. That took export sale commitments to 18.33 MMT, which is now 79% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 89% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding 18,990 contracts to their nets short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of January 28 to 110,782 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 42,386 contracts, an increase of 7,255 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans faced some pressure from trade threats, as a February 1 start date for a 10% tariff on Chinese import goods is set to kick off on Saturday. March was down 13 ¾ cents on the week. Meak was down $3.80/ton this week, with bean oil back up 89 points since last Friday. This week’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at 438,002 MT, a 3-week low in export sales. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 42.683 MMT. That is 86% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, above the 84% average pace. Commitment of Traders data indicated spec traders in soybean futures and options adding 16,166 contracts to their net long of 56,496 contracts as of January 28.
Live cattle were back and forth this week on some money flow, as February ended with a 17 cent loss. Cash trade was steady this week, reported at $208 the South, with Northern trade slipping to $208-210. Feeders were back down 85 cents on the week in the now nearby March contract. The CME Feeder Cattle Index slipped up another $2.79 week/week to $281.07. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $10.61/cwt. Choice was down $0.24 (-0.1%) to $328.68, while Select was $0.15 higher (0.1%) to $317.07. Weekly beef production was up 0.2% from last week and 0.3% above the same week last year at 526.4 million lbs. USDA reported a total of 20,166 MT of beef sold for 2025 shipment in the week ending on 1/23, the largest so far this year. Shipments also climbed to 21,490 MT in that week. The annual Cattle Inventory report showed all cattle and calves down 0.57% at 86.662 million head. The 2024 calf crop was down 0.1% at 33.53 million head. Beef cow inventory was down 0.53% at 27.86 million head. Beef replacement heifers were down 0.97% at 4.672 million head. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding to a new record net long position by 8,443 contracts to 156,909 contracts as of Tuesday.
Hogs were climbing again this week, up $1.875 since last Friday, a 2.28% gain. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up $1.13 this week at $83.06 as of January 29. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $3.06 this week (3.3%). The belly was the leader to the upside, up $12.95, with the ham the only primal reported lower. Pork production totaled 562.9 million lbs this week, back up 4.1% from last week and 3.9% below the same week last year. Year to date pork production through the first month is down 7.2%, as slaughter 7.7% lower. Export Sales data showed a total of 33,551 MT of pork sold in the week ending on January 23, down from the week prior. Shipments totaled 34,122 in that week. Commitment of Traders data showed specs trimming back 213 contracts from their net long position as of January 28 to a net position of 91,937 contracts.
Cotton was exploring new lows this week, with March on 173 points for a 2.56% loss. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales back down this week to 280,010 RB of cotton sold in the week of January 23. Shipments were down from last week at 153,512 RB. Commitments are now at 8.697 million RB, which is 85% of the new USDA forecast, compared to the normal sales pace of 86% of USDA’s export projection. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up 31 points this week, to 54.02 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money spec traders adding another 5,135 contracts to their new record net short position as of 1/28 at 53,574 contacts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. The monthly Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports will be out that afternoon. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday, as well as Census trade data for December. The USDA Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning. On Friday, February Live Cattle options expire.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March corn had a sort of hickey on Friday’s move, leaving a gap at $4.90 from the tariff news. With that said, it doesn’t necessarily mean the move is over. From a technical standpoint, all the retracements from the May high of $5.08 ¼ have bene broken suggesting we go retest that area. The first thing we need to do would be to break above the 2/3 speedline of the LOC high to low at $4.95 1/4, which stopped the move on Wednesday/Thursday. Stochastics have turned bearish, though that hasn’t turned out well on the last several sell signals. MACD, however, has started to lose its bullish momentum and is threatening to flip. The first real test on support would be the 18-day moving average at $4.78 ½. Breaking that may indicated the rally is put on paus and a test of the 1/3 speedline off the harvest low at $4.71 ¼ is due, with the 38.2% Fib retracement support at $4.655.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Sometimes It’s Not A Bluff. Ag Marketing Report 02/03/2025
Last week, and for much of this week, the market was calling the move for a February 1 tariff deadline on Mexico, Canada, and China a bluff move by President Trump. Last weekend’s move with Columbia not taking deportees and Trump threatening to issue an emergency tariff on the country resolving in no tariffs intensified the thought that. Well, here we are mere hours from February and after much debate, late in the week, the President is sticking with his guns (unless things change by then). While we don’t know all the details, it seems like there will likely be some retaliatory measures put on US goods to either country come Monday. Sometimes it not a bluff at all, though this has been the most widely announced tariff in recent history.
Corn pulled back this week, with March down 4 ½ cents as the weekend tariff threat from Mexico caused some longs to take profits ahead of the weekend. EIA data showed ethanol production backing off 84,000 barrels per day to 1.015 million bpd in the week of 1/24. Stocks of ethanol were back down this week with the drop in output, down 152,000 barrels to 25.722 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings slipping back to 1.36 MMT for the week ending on January 23. That took export commitments to 43.3 MMT, which is 70% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 66%. Accumulated shipments have totaled 20.933 MMT, 34% of the projected total and exceeding the 29% average pace. CFTC data indicated managed money spec traders in corn futures and options increasing their net long position by 39,043 contracts as of January 28, taking their net long to 350,721.
Wheat posted stronger trade across the three markets this week, despite a late week pressure. Chicago March was up 15 1/2 cents (2.85%) on the week. March Kansas City posted a 19 3/4 cent gain this week (+3.53%). MPLS March was 20 1/4 cents (3.4%) higher than last Friday. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export business back down to just 456,086 MT during the week of January 23. That took export sale commitments to 18.33 MMT, which is now 79% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 89% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding 18,990 contracts to their nets short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of January 28 to 110,782 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 42,386 contracts, an increase of 7,255 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans faced some pressure from trade threats, as a February 1 start date for a 10% tariff on Chinese import goods is set to kick off on Saturday. March was down 13 ¾ cents on the week. Meak was down $3.80/ton this week, with bean oil back up 89 points since last Friday. This week’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at 438,002 MT, a 3-week low in export sales. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 42.683 MMT. That is 86% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, above the 84% average pace. Commitment of Traders data indicated spec traders in soybean futures and options adding 16,166 contracts to their net long of 56,496 contracts as of January 28.
Live cattle were back and forth this week on some money flow, as February ended with a 17 cent loss. Cash trade was steady this week, reported at $208 the South, with Northern trade slipping to $208-210. Feeders were back down 85 cents on the week in the now nearby March contract. The CME Feeder Cattle Index slipped up another $2.79 week/week to $281.07. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $10.61/cwt. Choice was down $0.24 (-0.1%) to $328.68, while Select was $0.15 higher (0.1%) to $317.07. Weekly beef production was up 0.2% from last week and 0.3% above the same week last year at 526.4 million lbs. USDA reported a total of 20,166 MT of beef sold for 2025 shipment in the week ending on 1/23, the largest so far this year. Shipments also climbed to 21,490 MT in that week. The annual Cattle Inventory report showed all cattle and calves down 0.57% at 86.662 million head. The 2024 calf crop was down 0.1% at 33.53 million head. Beef cow inventory was down 0.53% at 27.86 million head. Beef replacement heifers were down 0.97% at 4.672 million head. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding to a new record net long position by 8,443 contracts to 156,909 contracts as of Tuesday.
Hogs were climbing again this week, up $1.875 since last Friday, a 2.28% gain. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up $1.13 this week at $83.06 as of January 29. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $3.06 this week (3.3%). The belly was the leader to the upside, up $12.95, with the ham the only primal reported lower. Pork production totaled 562.9 million lbs this week, back up 4.1% from last week and 3.9% below the same week last year. Year to date pork production through the first month is down 7.2%, as slaughter 7.7% lower. Export Sales data showed a total of 33,551 MT of pork sold in the week ending on January 23, down from the week prior. Shipments totaled 34,122 in that week. Commitment of Traders data showed specs trimming back 213 contracts from their net long position as of January 28 to a net position of 91,937 contracts.
Cotton was exploring new lows this week, with March on 173 points for a 2.56% loss. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales back down this week to 280,010 RB of cotton sold in the week of January 23. Shipments were down from last week at 153,512 RB. Commitments are now at 8.697 million RB, which is 85% of the new USDA forecast, compared to the normal sales pace of 86% of USDA’s export projection. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up 31 points this week, to 54.02 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money spec traders adding another 5,135 contracts to their new record net short position as of 1/28 at 53,574 contacts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. The monthly Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports will be out that afternoon. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday, as well as Census trade data for December. The USDA Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning. On Friday, February Live Cattle options expire.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March corn had a sort of hickey on Friday’s move, leaving a gap at $4.90 from the tariff news. With that said, it doesn’t necessarily mean the move is over. From a technical standpoint, all the retracements from the May high of $5.08 ¼ have bene broken suggesting we go retest that area. The first thing we need to do would be to break above the 2/3 speedline of the LOC high to low at $4.95 1/4, which stopped the move on Wednesday/Thursday. Stochastics have turned bearish, though that hasn’t turned out well on the last several sell signals. MACD, however, has started to lose its bullish momentum and is threatening to flip. The first real test on support would be the 18-day moving average at $4.78 ½. Breaking that may indicated the rally is put on paus and a test of the 1/3 speedline off the harvest low at $4.71 ¼ is due, with the 38.2% Fib retracement support at $4.655.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.