Grains Report 01/24/2025

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 24

For the week ended Jan 16, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 164.8 50.5 17694.5 16552.2 4934.0 98.6
hrw 74.7 17.0 4144.8 2883.6 1108.3 29.6
srw 0.8 0.5 2587.2 4433.2 675.3 36.0
hrs 79.4 33.0 5809.5 5404.2 1584.6 33.0
white 10.0 0.0 4798.7 3381.2 1438.0 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 354.3 450.1 127.7 0.0
corn 1661.0 9.2 41931.1 32482.2 22318.6 870.0
soybeans 1491.8 0.9 42312.7 37948.8 9979.9 145.5
soymeal 208.7 1.5 8802.3 7808.8 4352.2 106.9
soyoil 2.9 0.0 659.5 32.2 413.3 0.4
upland cotton 348.9 79.8 8417.3 9513.0 5110.5 554.4
pima cotton 6.1 0.0 255.9 199.5 74.0 0.0
sorghum 0.0 0.0 1116.7 4267.1 86.9 0.0
barley 1.0 0.0 33.0 16.6 19.0 3.0
rice 46.4 0.0 1958.2 2034.1 566.1 0.0

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for January Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Jan 1 99.8 99.3 – 100.8
Placed in Dec 101.8 98.8 – 107.1
Marketed in Dec 101.3 100.9 – 102.0
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Jan 1 in Dec in Dec
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.8 101.6 101.2
Allendale Inc. 99.7 100.8 101.1
HedgersEdge 100.5 106.8 101.7
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 99.6 100.3 101.4
Midwest Market Solutions 100.8 107.1 102.0
NFC Markets 99.9 102.2 100.9
Texas A&M Extension 99.4 99.0 101.4
US Commodities 99.3 98.8 102.2

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed mixed to lower again as the very cold weather witnessed in the US this week began to moderate Chart trends are still up. Russian and Ukrainian prices were higher and helped rally world values. Reports of weather problems in Australia also supported the world market as Australia has seen some extreme weather lately. The growing conditions in the US are very good, but some areas could have seen some Winterkill from the extreme cold seen this week. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market trending higher. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets. Argentina has cut its export tax rate on grains and oilseeds effective next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up. Support is at 542, 533, and 526 March, with resistance at 567, 569, and 577 March. Trends in Kansas City are up. Support is at 563, 559, and 553 March, with resistance at 586, 588, and 591 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up. Support is at 598, 587, and 581 March, and resistance is at 611, 618, and 625 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher yesterday after trading both sides of unchanged. Producers were sellers near 15.00 per cwt March. Prices got very cheap early this Winter but have rebounded as farmers have not been selling. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling yields have been called poor at 50 lbs instead of 55 lbs. There are some questions about the milling quality of the new crop Rice and that will help keep demand from mills for good Rice stronger than it might have been. The trends are still up the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong, but the difference is gone to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar. Argentina has cut its export tax rate on grains and oilseeds effective next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1443, 1434 and 1423 March and resistance is at 1500, 1516, and 1530 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher but the carry spreads were weaker on reports of increased farm selling. The rains will help preserve strong yield potential although more will be needed soon. The overall market fundamentals remain bullish. USDA surprised the market by cutting yield estimates in its reports released a week ago. The yield and production estimates were below all trade guesses. US ending stocks were equal to the lowest trade estimate. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff later. The US is also the major supplier to the world of Corn right now so the sales could hold relatively strong even with trade wars possible. It is now very cold in the Midwest so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Argentina has cut its export tax rate on grains and oilseeds effective next week.
Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up. Support is at 480, 473, and 460 March, and resistance is at 499, 504, and 508 March. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 358, 350, and 343 March, and resistance is at 376, 383, and 394 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher after Soybeans made new highs for the move. The carry spreads were weaker. It looks like farmers increased sales once March Soybeans got close to 11.00/bu. The fundamentals remain mixed to bearish. Bullish US production estimates released by USDA a week ago showed that ending stocks are now estimated at 350 million bushels. This is still a lot of Soybeans but much less than before. President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Most now call production at 171 to 172 million tons. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country, but thee harvest in these areas has been delayed by too much rain. It is too dry in southern Brazil and Argentina. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose and in part as the dryness seen before the harvest made US Soybeans easier to store for use down the road. Soybeans are offered cheaper in South America now and the weekly export sales report showed less sales than seen earlier in the season. Argentina has cut its export tax rate on grains and oilseeds effective next week.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1049, 1030, and 1009 March, and resistance is at 1079, 1090, and 1095 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up. Support is at 305.00, 299.00, and 294.00 March, and resistance is at 321.00, 337.00, and 340.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4370, 4310, and 4220 March, with resistance at 4630, 4710, and 4790 March.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today. Indonesia wants to use a blend of 40% of Plam Oil in its gasoline mixtures, but this has proved to be expensive and might need to be reduced and allow for increased exports. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was higher along with the strength in Chicago. The market is holding above the December highs in part due to the bullish USDA reports. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down. Support is at 610.00, 605.00, and 592.00 March, with resistance at 648.00, 657.00, and 672.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4100, 4020, and 3910 April, with resistance at 4300, 4350, and 4440 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Light snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1060.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 1035.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 992.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 970.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1065.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 1040.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 997.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 975.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1072.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1002.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 4,550.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 449.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.372)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 97,986 lots, or 3.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,957 3,980 3,952 3,970 3,972 3,967 -5 7,034 27,856
May-25 4,019 4,039 4,007 4,032 4,036 4,024 -12 82,709 193,961
Jul-25 4,018 4,033 4,007 4,027 4,036 4,022 -14 3,566 31,846
Sep-25 4,011 4,026 4,006 4,022 4,030 4,016 -14 2,661 16,813
Nov-25 3,973 3,986 3,965 3,981 3,984 3,973 -11 1,907 17,205
Jan-26 3,969 3,999 3,969 3,998 4,007 3,988 -19 109 711
Corn
Turnover: 600,151 lots, or 13.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 2,194 2,194 2,174 2,180 2,190 2,182 -8 57,528 285,529
May-25 2,276 2,280 2,265 2,267 2,281 2,270 -11 479,649 1,330,374
Jul-25 2,303 2,303 2,287 2,289 2,300 2,291 -9 35,655 322,262
Sep-25 2,311 2,314 2,302 2,306 2,313 2,307 -6 11,201 78,492
Nov-25 2,260 2,266 2,245 2,259 2,260 2,256 -4 15,805 80,900
Jan-26 2,257 2,261 2,244 2,259 2,257 2,254 -3 313 1,825
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,671,002 lots, or 48.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,165 3,193 3,132 3,173 3,160 3,166 6 139,893 296,449
May-25 2,845 2,863 2,823 2,840 2,848 2,845 -3 1,277,374 2,231,280
Jul-25 2,819 2,830 2,797 2,809 2,814 2,814 0 45,713 286,188
Aug-25 2,955 2,964 2,936 2,950 2,955 2,952 -3 12,764 145,725
Sep-25 2,965 2,971 2,941 2,958 2,963 2,958 -5 166,810 998,482
Nov-25 2,982 2,989 2,960 2,978 2,982 2,978 -4 18,688 182,762
Dec-25 3,030 3,036 3,012 3,021 3,030 3,025 -5 6,915 71,853
Jan-26 3,012 3,024 2,999 3,009 3,018 3,011 -7 2,845 16,252
Palm Oil
Turnover: 645,684 lots, or 53.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-25 9,170 9,236 9,140 9,198 9,184 9,190 6 1,165 2,760
Mar-25 8,674 8,754 8,648 8,680 8,686 8,702 16 10,525 13,371
Apr-25 8,422 8,490 8,404 8,404 8,430 8,442 12 365 1,285
May-25 8,280 8,328 8,234 8,258 8,314 8,280 -34 602,794 430,630
Jun-25 8,176 8,218 8,140 8,154 8,192 8,182 -10 91 1,448
Jul-25 8,116 8,154 8,076 8,076 8,124 8,114 -10 158 1,496
Aug-25 8,102 8,116 8,042 8,042 8,078 8,086 8 35 212
Sep-25 8,108 8,108 8,016 8,030 8,060 8,062 2 30,366 107,494
Oct-25 8,052 8,080 8,006 8,006 8,040 8,040 0 36 694
Nov-25 8,024 8,070 8,000 8,000 8,024 8,028 4 57 1,065
Dec-25 7,984 8,042 7,984 7,990 8,026 8,026 0 16 887
Jan-26 8,042 8,048 7,980 7,980 8,016 8,026 10 76 479
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 309,767 lots, or 23.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 7,810 7,840 7,768 7,784 7,868 7,798 -70 6,246 15,458
May-25 7,642 7,676 7,590 7,616 7,680 7,628 -52 268,465 588,271
Jul-25 7,556 7,584 7,512 7,532 7,576 7,546 -30 1,582 7,010
Aug-25 7,590 7,590 7,542 7,572 7,600 7,564 -36 38 855
Sep-25 7,570 7,592 7,518 7,540 7,588 7,550 -38 33,361 156,412
Nov-25 7,610 7,618 7,568 7,596 7,634 7,590 -44 28 2,367
Dec-25 7,638 7,648 7,586 7,606 7,636 7,604 -32 13 64
Jan-26 7,622 7,630 7,574 7,596 7,628 7,600 -28 34 223
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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