Grains Report 01/23/2025

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for January Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Jan 1 99.8 99.3 – 100.8
Placed in Dec 101.8 98.8 – 107.1
Marketed in Dec 101.3 100.9 – 102.0
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Jan 1 in Dec in Dec
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.8 101.6 101.2
Allendale Inc. 99.7 100.8 101.1
HedgersEdge 100.5 106.8 101.7
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 99.6 100.3 101.4
Midwest Market Solutions 100.8 107.1 102.0
NFC Markets 99.9 102.2 100.9
Texas A&M Extension 99.4 99.0 101.4
US Commodities 99.3 98.8 102.2

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed mixed to lower as the very cold weather witnessed in the US this week began to moderate Chart trends are still up. Russian and Ukrainian prices were higher and helped rally world values. Reports of weather problems in Australia also supported the world market as Australia has seen some extreme weather lately. The growing conditions in the US are very good, but some areas could have seen some Winterkill from the extreme cold seen this week. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market trending higher. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up. Support is at 542, 533, and 526 March, with resistance at 571, 569, and 577 March. Trends in Kansas City are up. Support is at 569, 563, and 559 March, with resistance at 586, 588, and 591 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up. Support is at 598, 587, and 581 March, and resistance is at 611, 618, and 625 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday along with selling seen in the other ag markets. Producers were sellers near 15.00 per cwt March. Prices got very cheap early this Winter but have rebounded as farmers have not been selling. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling yields have been called poor at 50 lbs instead of 55 lbs. There are some questions about the milling quality of the new crop Rice and that will help keep demand from mills for good Rice stronger than it might have been. The trends are still up the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong, but the difference is gone to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1443, 1434 and 1423 March and resistance is at 1500, 1516, and 1530 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower after making new highs for the move yesterday on reports of increased farm selling. The rains will help preserve strong yield potential although more will be needed soon. The overall market fundamentals remain bullish. USDA surprised the market by cutting yield estimates in its reports released a week ago. The yield and production estimates were below all trade guesses. US ending stocks were equal to the lowest trade estimate. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff later. The US is also the major supplier to the world of Corn right now so the sales could hold relatively strong even with trade wars possible. It is now very cold in the Midwest so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up. Support is at 480, 473, and 460 March, and resistance is at 499, 504, and 508 March. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 358, 350, and 343 March, and resistance is at 376, 383, and 394 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower after Soybeans made new highs for the move. It looks like farmers increased sales once March Soybeans got close to 11.00/bu. The fundamentals remain mixed to bearish. Bullish US production estimates released by USDA a week ago showed that ending stocks are now estimated at 350 million bushels. This is still a lot of Soybeans but much less than before. President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Most now call production at 171 to 172 million tons. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country, but thee harvest in these areas has been delayed by too much rain. It is too dry in southern Brazil and Argentina Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose and in part as the dryness seen before the harvest made US Soybeans easier to store for use down the road. Soybeans are offered cheaper in South America now and the weekly export sales report showed less sales than seen earlier in the season.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1049, 1030, and 1009 March, and resistance is at 1079, 1090, and 1095 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up. Support is at 305.00, 299.00, and 294.00 March, and resistance is at 321.00, 337.00, and 340.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4370, 4310, and 4220 March, with resistance at 4630, 4710, and 4790 March.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on currency considerations as the Ringgit was stronger. Indonesia wants to use a blend of 40% of Plam Oil in its gasoline mixtures, but this has proved to be expensive and might need to be reduced and allow for increased exports. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was a little higher along with the strength in the Canadian Dollar. The market is holding above the December highs in part due to the bullish USDA reports. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down. Support is at 610.00, 605.00, and 592.00 March, with resistance at 639.00, 641.00, and 648.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4100, 4020, and 3910 April, with resistance at 4300, 4350, and 4440 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Light snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1052.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1030.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 977.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 962.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1057.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1035.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 982.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 967.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1067.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 995.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 4,570.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 450.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.442)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 165,236 lots, or 6.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,992 4,002 3,948 3,957 3,979 3,972 -7 14,307 28,331
May-25 4,057 4,069 4,010 4,013 4,040 4,036 -4 137,752 199,002
Jul-25 4,053 4,070 4,009 4,014 4,040 4,036 -4 5,574 32,220
Sep-25 4,044 4,065 4,005 4,011 4,034 4,030 -4 4,891 17,108
Nov-25 4,000 4,015 3,964 3,968 3,987 3,984 -3 2,592 17,125
Jan-26 4,008 4,026 3,980 3,981 4,003 4,007 4 120 648
Corn
Turnover: 593,676 lots, or 1.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 2,187 2,195 2,186 2,192 2,184 2,190 6 60,216 291,574
May-25 2,272 2,288 2,272 2,280 2,270 2,281 11 458,258 1,360,006
Jul-25 2,290 2,307 2,290 2,298 2,292 2,300 8 42,760 322,909
Sep-25 2,306 2,321 2,306 2,312 2,308 2,313 5 14,013 80,420
Nov-25 2,254 2,268 2,252 2,259 2,253 2,260 7 17,590 82,101
Jan-26 2,251 2,263 2,250 2,259 2,253 2,257 4 839 1,770
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,170,394 lots, or 62.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,162 3,205 3,092 3,151 3,166 3,160 -6 233,187 310,426
May-25 2,846 2,871 2,828 2,836 2,848 2,848 0 1,584,837 2,286,450
Jul-25 2,813 2,837 2,800 2,808 2,814 2,814 0 59,570 292,303
Aug-25 2,954 2,973 2,943 2,947 2,956 2,955 -1 23,375 148,158
Sep-25 2,960 2,981 2,949 2,954 2,964 2,963 -1 225,337 1,010,326
Nov-25 2,985 2,999 2,967 2,972 2,984 2,982 -2 24,672 185,376
Dec-25 3,026 3,047 3,014 3,020 3,029 3,030 1 10,568 72,095
Jan-26 3,018 3,038 3,001 3,005 3,014 3,018 4 8,848 16,103
Palm Oil
Turnover: 836,157 lots, or 69.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-25 9,270 9,284 9,100 9,130 9,338 9,184 -154 2,573 3,561
Mar-25 8,756 8,760 8,622 8,646 8,824 8,686 -138 9,955 15,665
Apr-25 8,528 8,532 8,350 8,390 8,592 8,430 -162 760 1,321
May-25 8,372 8,390 8,224 8,242 8,432 8,314 -118 771,246 460,270
Jun-25 8,250 8,270 8,138 8,144 8,316 8,192 -124 560 1,475
Jul-25 8,180 8,196 8,078 8,088 8,238 8,124 -114 590 1,502
Aug-25 8,090 8,118 8,066 8,066 8,180 8,078 -102 50 211
Sep-25 8,096 8,110 8,022 8,042 8,140 8,060 -80 50,131 108,826
Oct-25 8,072 8,082 8,000 8,000 8,126 8,040 -86 65 704
Nov-25 8,060 8,066 7,994 8,006 8,118 8,024 -94 62 1,101
Dec-25 8,060 8,066 7,998 7,998 8,102 8,026 -76 48 891
Jan-26 8,052 8,066 7,982 7,988 8,100 8,016 -84 117 437
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 436,904 lots, or 33.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 7,910 7,972 7,788 7,800 7,922 7,868 -54 10,391 16,824
May-25 7,726 7,766 7,610 7,626 7,752 7,680 -72 386,177 595,760
Jul-25 7,626 7,650 7,528 7,540 7,648 7,576 -72 1,662 7,430
Aug-25 7,646 7,646 7,562 7,564 7,682 7,600 -82 77 854
Sep-25 7,640 7,662 7,536 7,552 7,656 7,588 -68 38,512 154,301
Nov-25 7,660 7,686 7,586 7,600 7,690 7,634 -56 30 2,372
Dec-25 7,690 7,690 7,608 7,616 7,726 7,636 -90 14 68
Jan-26 7,670 7,692 7,580 7,586 7,702 7,628 -74 41 211
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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