Grains Report 01/22/2025

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 21
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Tue Jan 21, 2025 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 16, 2025
— METRIC TONS —
—————————————————————————
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/16/2025 01/09/2025 01/18/2024 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 599 200 9,207 1,814
CORN 1,541,423 1,442,252 746,933 19,249,865 14,746,139
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 264 0
MIXED 0 0 49 122 73
OATS 0 0 0 148 3,794
RYE 0 0 0 0 72
SORGHUM 9,424 894 78,689 1,381,611 2,618,512
SOYBEANS 973,145 1,357,370 1,184,956 32,297,933 26,777,056
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 4,109
WHEAT 261,786 299,191 315,186 13,279,169 10,723,707
Total 2,785,778 3,100,306 2,326,013 66,218,319 54,875,276
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for January Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Jan 1 99.8 99.3 – 100.8
Placed in Dec 101.8 98.8 – 107.1
Marketed in Dec 101.3 100.9 – 102.0
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Jan 1 in Dec in Dec
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.8 101.6 101.2
Allendale Inc. 99.7 100.8 101.1
HedgersEdge 100.5 106.8 101.7
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 99.6 100.3 101.4
Midwest Market Solutions 100.8 107.1 102.0
NFC Markets 99.9 102.2 100.9
Texas A&M Extension 99.4 99.0 101.4
US Commodities 99.3 98.8 102.2

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher on reports of stronger overseas values and very cold weather witnessed in the US Chart trends turned up. Russian and Ukrainian prices were higher and helped rally world values. Reports of weather problems in Australia also supported the world market as Australia has seen some extreme weather lately. The USDA reports were not bullish to Wheat as plantings were higher than trade expectations as were world ending stocks estimates. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up. Support is at 542, 533, and 526 March, with resistance at 561, 569, and 577 March. Trends in Kansas City are up. Support is at 569, 563, and 559 March, with resistance at 577, 588, and 591 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up. Support is at 598, 587, and 581 March, and resistance is at 611, 618, and 625 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday. Prices got very cheap early this Winter but have rebounded as farmers have not been selling. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling yields have been called poor at 50 lbs instead of 55 lbs. There are some questions about the milling quality of the new crop Rice and that will help keep demand from mills for good Rice stronger than it might have been. The trends are still up the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong, but the difference is gone to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1443, 1434 and 1423 March and resistance is at 1500, 1516, and 1530 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher and at new highs for the move yesterday on news of less than expected rains for Argentina and southern Brazil. The rains will help preserve strong yield potential although more will be needed soon. The overall market fundamentals remain bullish. USDA surprised the market by cutting yield estimates in its reports released a week ago. The yield and production estimates were below all trade guesses. US ending stocks were equal to the lowest trade estimate. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here next week. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff later. The US is also the major supplier to the world of Corn right now so the sales could hold relatively strong even with trade wars possible. It is now very cold in the Midwest so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Oats were higher.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 136,000 tons of US Corn
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up. Support is at 460, 457, and 453 March, and resistance is at 499, 504, and 508 March. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 358, 350, and 343 March, and resistance is at 376, 383, and 394 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed as beneficial rains were not seen in southern Brazil and Argentina. More rain will be needed before the harvest to finish the crops. The fundamentals remain mixed to bearish. Bullish US production estimates released by USDA a week ago showed that ending stocks are now estimated at 350 million bushels. This is still a lot of Soybeans but much less than before. President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose and in part as the dryness seen before the harvest made US Soybeans easier to store for use down the road. Soybeans are offered cheaper in South America now and the weekly export sales report showed less sales than seen earlier in the season.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1049, 1030, and 1009 March, and resistance is at 1079, 1090, and 1095 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up. Support is at 395.00, 299.00, and 294.00 March, and resistance is at 305.00, 310.00, and 315.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4530, 4480, and 4370 March, with resistance at 4710, 4790, and 4940 March.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on reports of weaker demand. Indonesia wants to use a blend of 40% of Plam Oil in its gasoline mixtures, but this has proved to be expensive and might need to be reduced and allow for increased exports. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was lower along with the strength in the Canadian Dollar. The market is holding above the December highs in part due to the bullish USDA reports. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down. Support is at 603.00, 592.00, and 589.00 March, with resistance at 634.00, 641.00, and 648.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4100, 4020, and 3910 April, with resistance at 4300, 4350, and 4440 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1052.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 1032.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 985.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 967.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1057.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 1037.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 990.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 972.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 1067.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 992.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 4,600.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 452.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4335)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 147,222 lots, or 5.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,977 3,995 3,963 3,994 3,969 3,979 10 15,925 31,504
May-25 4,041 4,062 4,021 4,060 4,021 4,040 19 120,244 211,005
Jul-25 4,045 4,057 4,024 4,057 4,028 4,040 12 5,568 32,396
Sep-25 4,047 4,048 4,019 4,048 4,027 4,034 7 3,606 17,872
Nov-25 3,988 3,999 3,980 3,999 3,969 3,987 18 1,682 16,753
Jan-26 3,998 4,014 3,998 4,010 3,983 4,003 20 197 599
Corn
Turnover: 547,791 lots, or 12.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 2,188 2,191 2,177 2,188 2,192 2,184 -8 60,207 300,093
May-25 2,273 2,276 2,266 2,272 2,278 2,270 -8 429,566 1,362,199
Jul-25 2,299 2,299 2,288 2,292 2,300 2,292 -8 34,633 323,916
Sep-25 2,313 2,314 2,304 2,306 2,316 2,308 -8 13,743 81,988
Nov-25 2,256 2,260 2,247 2,253 2,255 2,253 -2 9,150 81,706
Jan-26 2,259 2,259 2,249 2,253 2,255 2,253 -2 492 1,535
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,304,362 lots, or 66.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,160 3,201 3,127 3,167 3,144 3,166 22 173,339 336,269
May-25 2,849 2,864 2,824 2,844 2,830 2,848 18 1,733,833 2,293,011
Jul-25 2,810 2,830 2,794 2,812 2,797 2,814 17 44,663 299,108
Aug-25 2,965 2,976 2,937 2,954 2,949 2,956 7 17,178 160,425
Sep-25 2,968 2,986 2,945 2,961 2,957 2,964 7 288,403 1,008,229
Nov-25 2,991 3,006 2,966 2,980 2,974 2,984 10 30,753 189,917
Dec-25 3,039 3,045 3,010 3,029 3,021 3,029 8 9,482 76,606
Jan-26 3,019 3,029 3,000 3,017 3,007 3,014 7 6,711 13,402
Palm Oil
Turnover: 893,171 lots, or 75.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-25 9,330 9,410 9,236 9,246 9,350 9,338 -12 5,086 5,126
Mar-25 8,860 8,922 8,734 8,744 8,920 8,824 -96 8,092 16,315
Apr-25 8,604 8,678 8,512 8,512 8,644 8,592 -52 493 1,310
May-25 8,454 8,524 8,354 8,360 8,446 8,432 -14 830,988 452,640
Jun-25 8,314 8,390 8,244 8,254 8,318 8,316 -2 96 1,155
Jul-25 8,234 8,294 8,168 8,168 8,246 8,238 -8 72 1,209
Aug-25 8,224 8,242 8,124 8,124 8,180 8,180 0 31 199
Sep-25 8,148 8,222 8,080 8,082 8,154 8,140 -14 48,151 104,760
Oct-25 8,166 8,192 8,082 8,118 8,130 8,126 -4 12 694
Nov-25 8,152 8,176 8,050 8,050 8,126 8,118 -8 24 1,092
Dec-25 8,162 8,162 8,046 8,046 8,110 8,102 -8 10 885
Jan-26 8,140 8,162 8,042 8,046 8,112 8,100 -12 116 368
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 428,283 lots, or 33.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 7,974 8,010 7,872 7,914 7,896 7,922 26 12,557 18,898
May-25 7,772 7,800 7,706 7,726 7,724 7,752 28 372,463 604,229
Jul-25 7,654 7,690 7,606 7,626 7,628 7,648 20 1,713 7,485
Aug-25 7,686 7,720 7,638 7,672 7,660 7,682 22 61 870
Sep-25 7,656 7,700 7,610 7,638 7,632 7,656 24 41,357 151,112
Nov-25 7,726 7,730 7,672 7,674 7,672 7,690 18 79 2,361
Dec-25 7,740 7,750 7,700 7,700 7,710 7,726 16 20 66
Jan-26 7,740 7,740 7,676 7,688 7,688 7,702 14 33 198
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322