Softs Report 01/21/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week, but March made new contract lows on Thursday despite strong weekly export sales. The US Dollar has been strong and Crude Oil futures have been weaker. Selling has come from news that Trump will impose some big tariffs on China, but the tariffs posted were not as high as he had threatened before during the campaign. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year, but its Cotton demand is expected to stay soft. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down. Support is at 66.20, 65.60, and 65.00 March, with resistance of 69.40, 69.90 and 70.40 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 14, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 296,269
: Positions :
: 31,324 88,610 70,436 90,610 95,439 87,787 26,866 280,156 281,351: 16,112 14,918
: Changes from: January 7, 2025 (Change in open interest: 17,453) :
: -248 5,103 6,256 3,991 3,163 6,727 2,373 16,726 16,894: 727 559
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.6 29.9 23.8 30.6 32.2 29.6 9.1 94.6 95.0: 5.4 5.0
: Total Traders: 321 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 113 94 71 60 46 28 249 242:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week, but near the highs of the week as another cold front is expected in the east early this week. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The short term supply scenario remains very tight as USDA maintained its Florida production estimate at 12 million boxes and estimated US production at 60.3 million boxes from 60.6 million in its previous estimate. The lack of lower production goes against ideas of declining demand and even if demand is holding well. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now, but cold weather for Florida this week should be monitored in case damage becomes possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 461.00, 454.00, and 45a2.00 March, with resistance at 484.00, 489.00, and 499.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 14, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,351 :
: Positions :
: 2,033 10,492 686 0 181 5,895 51 0 910 450 2,314 :
: Changes from: January 7, 2025 :
: 405 -223 35 0 86 -39 -22 0 -423 137 -51 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 73.1 4.8 0.0 1.3 41.1 0.4 0.0 6.3 3.1 16.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 50 :
: 8 8 . 0 . 17 . 0 9 7 10 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher and London was a little lower last week on reports of improving rains for southern Brazil and increased offers by Vietnam producers before the Tet holiday. The producers need the money for the festivities and to help tide them over with much of the country closed during the festival. The rains in Brazil are falling in the dry southern area as central areas have had good rains in recent weeks and are already in good condition. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. In Brazil, CECAFE said that 2024 exports were 50.4 million bags, a new record that is not likely to be repeated this year. The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year, an off-year in the country’s biennial crop cycle, while dry weather last year could also reduce the size of the 2025/26 harvest.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 304.65 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 314.00, 301.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 342.00, 347.00 and 353.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 4770, 4630, and 4510 March, with resistance at 5350, 5400, and 5550 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 14, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 239,166
: Positions :
: 56,093 7,294 74,605 48,535 140,433 48,665 9,320 227,898 231,652: 11,268 7,514
: Changes from: January 7, 2025 (Change in open interest: -12,112) :
: 4,571 -2,730 -6,238 -1,488 -2,727 -10,261 -1,135 -13,415 -12,831: 1,303 719
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.5 3.0 31.2 20.3 58.7 20.3 3.9 95.3 96.9: 4.7 3.1
: Total Traders: 371 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 142 46 101 87 121 46 19 307 264:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week. Ideas of increasing Brazil and Asian production are keeping prices low overall. The move came despite the UNICA news of reduced production and processing in the latest reporting period in center south Brazil. UNICA said that the production for the last two weeks in December was 65% less than the year before at 1.73 million tons. Sugar production was 64,000 tons, down 73% from the previous year, ane ethanol production was 486 million liters, down8% from the previous year. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have improved production potential. The Brazilian Real has been very weak lately to encourage sales and help keep pressure on prices. Trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1730 March and resistance is at 1900, 1940, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 466.00, 460.00, and 454.00 March, with resistance at 495.00, 501.00, and 510.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 14, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,147,144
: Positions :
: 87,858 190,325 269,160 430,557 551,777 291,329 64,064 1,078,904 1,075,326: 68,240 71,818
: Changes from: January 7, 2025 (Change in open interest: 50,771) :
: -11,108 27,446 13,421 41,208 -6,450 5,286 5,940 48,807 40,356: 1,964 10,415
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.7 16.6 23.5 37.5 48.1 25.4 5.6 94.1 93.7: 5.9 6.3
: Total Traders: 239 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 63 86 68 67 40 23 214 192:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week as Ivory Coast port arrivals remain above projections but are expected to fade. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, but demand has been weakening. The European grind was down 5.4% from last year and the Asian grind was down 0.52%. Cocoa processing in North America fell in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 102,761 metric tons, down 1.16% from the same period a year earlier. Cocoa processing in Brazil was 5.5% less. Chart trends are tuning down in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. The trade also noted ICE-certified cocoa stocks have been rising of late, but that overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 10250, 9830, and 9450 March, with resistance at 11880, 12000, and 12910 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 8500, 8160, and 7810 March, with resistance at 9380, 10200, and 10500 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 14, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 174,637
: Positions :
: 33,922 11,835 49,609 58,109 99,848 21,570 8,085 163,210 169,376: 11,428 5,261
: Changes from: January 7, 2025 (Change in open interest: -3,955) :
: -307 -302 -1,383 -2,608 -1,979 672 -237 -3,626 -3,901: -329 -54
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.4 6.8 28.4 33.3 57.2 12.4 4.6 93.5 97.0: 6.5 3.0
: Total Traders: 166 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 34 59 39 39 26 13 150 122:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322