Grains Report 01/17/2025

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were lower yesterday on reports of weaker overseas values and chart trends are mixed. Russian and Ukrainian prices were soft earlier this week despite less Wheat on offer. Buyer have not been active lately. USDA showed stronger than expected weekly export sales, but the sales were not strong enough to create much meaningful buying interest. The USDA reports were not bullish to Wheat as plantings were higher than trade expectations as were world ending stocks estimates. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 529, 526, and 520 March, with resistance at 552, 555, and 561 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 538, 535, and 528 March, with resistance at 563, 568, and 571 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 578, 572, and 566 March, and resistance is at 588, 598, and 601 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday in part on reports of beneficial rains in South American production areas. Argenztina and southern Brazil saw the best rain in a long time and selling was seen in many ag markets with strong South American ties. Farmers have not been selling but might have missed the best prices for now. Export sales have not been strong, either. There are some questions about the milling quality of the new crop Rice and that will help keep demand from mills for good Rice stronger than it might have been. The trends are still up the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong, but the difference is gone to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1454, 1434 and 1423 March and resistance is at 1487, 1500, and 1516 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday in sympathy with the selling seen in Soybeans and news of better rains for Argentina and southern Brazil. The rains will help preserve strong yield potential although more will be needed soon. The overall market fundamentals remain bullish but might be part of the price for now. USDA surprised the market by cutting yield estimates in its reports released a week ago. The yield and production estimates were below all trade guesses. US ending stocks were equal to the lowest trade estimate. The USDA weekly export sales report showed very strong sales. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here next week. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff later. It is now very cold in the Midwest so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up. Support is at 460, 457, and 453 March, and resistance is at 479, 483, and 489 March. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 335, 333, and 329 March, and resistance is at 356, 365, and 369 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower on reports of beneficial rains seen in southern Brazil and Argentina. More rain will be needed before the harvest to finish the crops, but the reported rains went a long way to keeping yield estimates strong for both regions. The fundamentals remain mixed to bearish. Bullish US production estimates released by USDA a week ago showed that ending stocks are now estimated at 350 million bushels. This is still a lot of Soybeans but much less than before. President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose and in part as the dryness seen before the harvest made US Soybeans easier to store for use down the road. Soybeans are offered cheaper in South America now and the weekly export sales report showed less sales than seen earlier in the season.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1019, 1009, and 996 March, and resistance is at 1067, 1075, and 1079 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 292.00, 285.00, and 282.00 March, and resistance is at 305.00, 310.00, and 315.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up. Support is at 4480, 4370, and 4310 March, with resistance at 4710, 4790, and 4940 March.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on stronger outside markets. Indonesia wants to use a blend of 40% of Plam Oil in its gasoline mixtures, but this has proved to be expensive and might need to be reduced and allow for increased exports. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago. The market is holding above the December highs in part due to the bullish USDA reports. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 603.00, 592.00, and 589.00 March, with resistance at 610.00, 617.00, and 631.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4100, 4020, and 3910 April, with resistance at 4300, 4350, and 4440 April

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1085.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1065.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 1035.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 972.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 960.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1090.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1070.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 1040.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 977.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 965.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1075.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 982.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4,650.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 450.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5055)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 156,072 lots, or 6.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,927 3,964 3,905 3,962 3,929 3,935 6 10,597 35,930
May-25 3,998 4,031 3,971 4,028 3,993 4,000 7 132,882 205,581
Jul-25 4,001 4,037 3,979 4,036 3,999 4,008 9 5,042 33,185
Sep-25 3,993 4,035 3,982 4,034 3,997 4,006 9 4,652 18,901
Nov-25 3,928 3,970 3,915 3,968 3,935 3,945 10 2,768 15,646
Jan-26 3,942 3,970 3,929 3,969 3,949 3,954 5 131 212
Corn
Turnover: 834,374 lots, or 19.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 2,196 2,201 2,183 2,198 2,186 2,192 6 109,021 326,739
May-25 2,288 2,298 2,276 2,291 2,281 2,287 6 603,475 1,355,862
Jul-25 2,314 2,323 2,298 2,313 2,303 2,313 10 84,530 317,509
Sep-25 2,331 2,340 2,319 2,333 2,324 2,330 6 24,357 85,992
Nov-25 2,266 2,274 2,259 2,268 2,264 2,264 0 12,182 77,257
Jan-26 2,268 2,276 2,258 2,266 2,264 2,265 1 809 957
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,926,350 lots, or 5.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 2,985 3,025 2,963 3,012 2,979 2,995 16 77,310 376,838
May-25 2,753 2,788 2,733 2,779 2,763 2,762 -1 1,487,945 2,309,560
Jul-25 2,724 2,757 2,704 2,752 2,734 2,734 0 58,581 309,441
Aug-25 2,883 2,916 2,866 2,912 2,895 2,892 -3 17,844 165,104
Sep-25 2,894 2,925 2,874 2,919 2,904 2,901 -3 238,163 994,159
Nov-25 2,920 2,948 2,897 2,943 2,930 2,924 -6 30,224 201,734
Dec-25 2,965 2,987 2,940 2,981 2,979 2,967 -12 9,459 76,157
Jan-26 2,950 2,971 2,930 2,966 2,971 2,952 -19 6,824 9,927
Palm Oil
Turnover: 955,844 lots, or 79.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-25 9,162 9,220 9,030 9,200 9,268 9,132 -136 30,121 15,242
Mar-25 8,824 8,904 8,720 8,882 8,916 8,812 -104 6,497 16,640
Apr-25 8,540 8,612 8,450 8,596 8,606 8,524 -82 606 1,317
May-25 8,300 8,410 8,232 8,390 8,424 8,322 -102 865,979 473,714
Jun-25 8,154 8,264 8,100 8,264 8,286 8,196 -90 90 1,174
Jul-25 8,114 8,168 8,040 8,162 8,196 8,096 -100 74 1,245
Aug-25 8,044 8,112 7,986 8,112 8,120 8,038 -82 45 208
Sep-25 8,000 8,092 7,914 8,080 8,086 8,012 -74 52,170 104,611
Oct-25 7,954 8,046 7,912 8,046 8,044 7,972 -72 68 700
Nov-25 7,950 8,046 7,886 8,046 8,040 7,960 -80 52 342
Dec-25 7,946 8,030 7,900 8,030 8,032 7,964 -68 51 146
Jan-26 7,980 8,034 7,906 8,034 8,018 7,970 -48 91 140
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 578,593 lots, or 43.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 7,672 7,722 7,590 7,712 7,770 7,650 -120 9,193 19,322
May-25 7,580 7,632 7,494 7,618 7,708 7,560 -148 516,671 617,000
Jul-25 7,524 7,562 7,432 7,554 7,634 7,504 -130 2,237 7,886
Aug-25 7,534 7,592 7,474 7,588 7,588 7,570 -18 396 948
Sep-25 7,538 7,570 7,438 7,556 7,634 7,498 -136 49,857 140,733
Nov-25 7,550 7,594 7,486 7,594 7,688 7,530 -158 66 2,331
Dec-25 7,570 7,632 7,532 7,622 7,664 7,566 -98 48 78
Jan-26 7,580 7,634 7,490 7,622 7,672 7,550 -122 125 137
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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