About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Global Grain Output Estimates Tweaked Downward But Near Record High Still Expected
By Joe Hoppe
Global grain production is still expected at a close to record high for the harvest ending this year, though estimates have been lowered, the International Grains Council said Thursday.
The IGC forecasts global grain output at 2.305 billion metric tons in the 2024-25 season, down by 6 million tons from November’s estimate. This would still reflect a near record high, just shy of 2023-24’s estimated harvest of 2.309 billion tons.
The drop mainly reflects lower maize production, the IGC said. Consumption is also expected to set records at 2.335 billion tons, 4 million tons more than in November, mainly reflecting a larger industrial use figure. The combination of a reduction in estimated supply and higher consumption will lead to smaller carryover stocks, now forecast 5.1% lower on year at 573 million tons.
For corn, the IGC expects output of 1.219 billion tons in 2024-25, down 6 million tons on the prior estimate of 1.225 billion tons, the grains body said.
Wheat output is expected at 796 million tons, flat on November’s estimate, alongside rice, flat on 535 million tons. The figure for rice is still expected to increase 2% on year at a new high, led by production gains in India. Soybean output expectations have been raised by 1 million tons to 420 million tons on better outlooks for South American and Asian growers, 6.1% higher on year.
The estimate uses the latest acreage estimates and yield prospects.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 16
For the week ended Jan 9, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 513.4 8.5 17529.6 16100.9 4970.4 48.1
hrw 53.8 0.0 4070.1 2791.3 1065.2 12.6
srw 33.9 8.5 2586.4 4352.1 735.1 35.5
hrs 170.0 0.0 5730.0 5257.3 1586.0 0.0
white 237.5 0.0 4788.7 3286.1 1456.4 0.0
durum 18.3 0.0 354.3 414.1 127.7 0.0
corn 1024.2 0.2 40270.2 31527.4 22174.3 860.8
soybeans 569.1 0.0 40890.6 37387.9 9522.7 144.6
soymeal 144.4 1.1 8593.5 7553.0 4316.5 105.4
soyoil 57.2 0.1 656.6 32.2 413.3 0.4
upland cotton 316.2 1.3 8068.3 9306.0 4984.1 474.5
pima cotton 2.9 0.0 249.8 194.8 71.2 0.0
sorghum 0.0 0.0 1116.7 4206.8 86.9 0.0
barley 1.7 0.0 32.0 16.6 18.7 3.0
rice 23.1 0.0 1911.7 2005.3 561.4 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were mixed yesterday in consolidation trading and chart trends are turning up. The USDA reports were not bullish to Wheat as plantings were higher than trade expectations as were world ending stocks estimates. World Wheat demand has been strong, but there has not been much demand in world markets for US Wheat. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up. Support is at 539, 529, and 526 March, with resistance at 552, 555, and 561 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 538, 535, and 528 March, with resistance at 568, 571, and 577 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 587, 578, and 572 March, and resistance is at 598, 601, and 606 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday in continued speculative and some new commercial buying. Farmers have not been selling and the market needs the Rice. There are some questions about the milling quality of the new crop Rice and that will help keep demand from mills for good Rice stronger than it might have been. The trends are up the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong, but the difference is gone to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1454, 1434 and 1423 March and resistance is at 1474, 1500, and 1516 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday. The overall market fundamentals remain bullish but might be part of the price for now. USDA surprised the market by cutting yield estimates by 3.8 bushels per acre and production to just 14.867 billion bushels. The yield and production estimates were below all trade guesses. US ending stocks were equal to the lowest trade estimate at 1.540 billion bushels. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff later. It is now very cold in the Midwest so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Oats were higher.
Overnight News: Taiwan bought 135,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up. Support is at 460, 457, and 453 March, and resistance is at 479, 483, and 489 March. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 335, 333, and 329 March, and resistance is at 356, 365, and 369 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower as follow through buying tied to the response to the USDA production reports ran out of steam. The fundamentals remain mixed to bearish. Soybeans were higher in response to bullish US production estimates released by USDA. It estimated yield a full bushel less than last month and production at 4.36s6 billion bushels. Ending stocks were estimated at 380 million bushels. Both estimates from USDA were well below the lowest trade guess. President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest last year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. Soybeans are offered cheaper in South America now.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up. Support is at 1028, 1019, and 1009 March, and resistance is at 1064, 1075, and 1079 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 302.00, 295.00, and 292.00 March, and resistance is at 310.00, 315.00, and 321.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up. Support is at 4480, 4370, and 4310 March, with resistance at 4710, 4790, and 4940 March.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on weaker outside markets. Indonesia wants to use a blend of 40% of Plam Oil in its gasoline mixtures, but this has proved to be expensive and might need to be reduced and allow for increased exports. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago. The market is holding above the December highs in part due to the bullish USDA reports. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 617.00, 610.00, and 603.00 March, with resistance at 640.00, 648.00, and 656.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4140, 4100, and 4020 April, with resistance at 4440, 4480, and 4530 April

Midwest Weather Forecast: Light mixed precipitation. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1095.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1077.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 1045.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 977.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 957.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1100.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1082.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 1050.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 982.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 962.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1090.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 990.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4,680.00 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 460.00 -07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 187,138 lots, or 7.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,917 3,950 3,903 3,935 3,909 3,929 20 12,781 37,408
May-25 3,984 4,016 3,968 4,000 3,972 3,993 21 154,543 195,321
Jul-25 3,990 4,019 3,973 4,006 3,977 3,999 22 10,989 33,317
Sep-25 3,997 4,010 3,978 4,002 3,980 3,997 17 5,629 18,514
Nov-25 3,928 3,941 3,923 3,935 3,920 3,935 15 2,980 14,847
Jan-26 3,988 3,988 3,938 3,953 3,920 3,949 29 216 169
Corn
Turnover: 742,167 lots, or 16.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 2,180 2,192 2,180 2,191 2,181 2,186 5 80,398 355,964
May-25 2,274 2,290 2,271 2,288 2,271 2,281 10 579,788 1,334,269
Jul-25 2,300 2,311 2,294 2,310 2,294 2,303 9 46,770 305,369
Sep-25 2,324 2,333 2,316 2,333 2,317 2,324 7 21,394 84,553
Nov-25 2,270 2,272 2,260 2,270 2,264 2,264 0 12,963 73,890
Jan-26 2,269 2,277 2,256 2,268 2,264 2,264 0 854 646
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,821,221 lots, or 5.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 2,983 3,008 2,959 2,990 2,981 2,979 -2 72,513 374,960
May-25 2,765 2,791 2,744 2,761 2,756 2,763 7 1,429,502 2,310,430
Jul-25 2,736 2,761 2,718 2,728 2,726 2,734 8 50,997 311,057
Aug-25 2,900 2,922 2,879 2,891 2,890 2,895 5 18,875 166,120
Sep-25 2,907 2,931 2,888 2,901 2,899 2,904 5 202,536 976,086
Nov-25 2,931 2,956 2,912 2,924 2,922 2,930 8 24,784 210,396
Dec-25 2,988 2,999 2,958 2,968 2,982 2,979 -3 10,826 74,135
Jan-26 2,975 2,990 2,949 2,955 2,982 2,971 -11 11,188 7,479
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,215,125 lots, or 10.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-25 9,362 9,402 9,140 9,210 9,432 9,268 -164 16,567 10,779
Mar-25 9,006 9,050 8,790 8,842 9,094 8,916 -178 7,848 16,792
Apr-25 8,694 8,754 8,508 8,558 8,808 8,606 -202 696 1,448
May-25 8,488 8,548 8,292 8,344 8,598 8,424 -174 1,123,118 479,704
Jun-25 8,342 8,408 8,160 8,198 8,464 8,286 -178 126 1,174
Jul-25 8,268 8,300 8,072 8,094 8,344 8,196 -148 213 1,222
Aug-25 8,204 8,218 8,018 8,054 8,248 8,120 -128 80 204
Sep-25 8,154 8,204 7,968 8,014 8,224 8,086 -138 66,099 102,939
Oct-25 8,122 8,156 7,952 7,984 8,260 8,044 -216 83 706
Nov-25 8,094 8,140 7,950 7,976 8,182 8,040 -142 58 340
Dec-25 8,100 8,122 7,950 7,980 8,180 8,032 -148 75 145
Jan-26 8,110 8,120 7,970 7,984 8,180 8,018 -162 162 111
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 666,970 lots, or 51.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 7,826 7,882 7,646 7,688 7,852 7,770 -82 10,410 20,192
May-25 7,742 7,820 7,566 7,606 7,776 7,708 -68 607,995 614,947
Jul-25 7,664 7,736 7,508 7,544 7,698 7,634 -64 1,689 7,783
Aug-25 7,696 7,752 7,544 7,570 7,730 7,588 -142 328 681
Sep-25 7,642 7,730 7,516 7,548 7,688 7,634 -54 46,349 135,998
Nov-25 7,752 7,762 7,558 7,558 7,730 7,688 -42 56 2,326
Dec-25 7,718 7,754 7,598 7,616 7,714 7,664 -50 55 69
Jan-26 7,732 7,762 7,594 7,610 7,714 7,672 -42 88 75
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322