Where’s the Glut. The Energy Report 01/15/2025

Yet the EIA still says that US oil demand will remain steady at 20.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 2026, with domestic oil output rising to 13.55 million bpd, an increase from the previous forecast of 13.52 million bpd. I predict that the EIA will have to again raise their demand forecast. Not surprisingly the International Energy Agency (IEA) had to raise their oil demand growth forecast by 100.000 barrels a day to 940,000 barrels a day.

I think the key takeaway and the reason why oil has hit the highest levels since August is that the market is tight. And with the coming and current arctic weather it is more than likely to get tighter. This comes as the world wants to get tough on Russia. The Biden administration sanctioned two Russian oil companies this week, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels in the Russian “shadow fleet”. They also accused the Eagle S Tanker, allegedly part of the Russian Shadow fleet, of sabotage damaging a Baltic Sea power cable that runs between Finland and Estonia.

Now Reuters reported that, “Six European Union countries on Monday called on the European Commission to lower the $60 per barrel price cap put on Russian oil by G7 countries, arguing it would reduce Moscow’s revenues to continue the war in Ukraine while not causing a market shock.” I think the real shock is that the EU thought that the price cap worked. Russian oil export revenues rose by $0.41 bn to $15.1 bn as product prices improved. On 10 January, the US government issued new sanctions intended to reduce revenues from the Russian oil sector.

Do you want a real shock? No risk of oil shocks. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud seems to believe the world has moved beyond the risk of an oil shock! I know! He said that, “Today oil no longer poses an energy security challenge due to available storage, development of infrastructure, maturing supply chain, and more prolific production.” In other words he is saying that this time is different, the most dangerous phrase in all of economics.

First it was gas prices, then higher prices for electricity to charge your electric car, now they are coming for my natural gas car. The EIA reported that after a decade of nearly flat prices from 2011 to 2021, inflation-adjusted fuel prices for natural gas vehicles increased in 37 states from 2021 to 2023, according to new estimates in our State Energy Data System (SEDS). Real U.S. natural gas prices for vehicle fuel remained 25% below their peak in 2008.

Oil is still on a breakout mode it seems to be consolidating at the higher end of the range. We believe that we should target above $80.00 but keep in mind that we have to roll over to the March contract.

We saw a big surge again in the heating oil normal crack. And we saw reverse to upside on the volatile gasoline crack on reports that Colonial Pipeline had to shut down a line to investigate a leak. This comes as the IEA reported that, “Prices also got a boost as traders considered multiple supply risks. Near-term, weather-related shut-ins in North America could have a significant impact, with Cushing crude inventories at decade lows. Last winter, oil production in the United States and Canada plunged by more than 1.8 mb/d from December to January due to an Arctic cold snap. A smaller seasonal drop in supply is expected this year, as the prolific Permian Basin has so far been spared major weather impacts.

The IEA also warms that, “at the same time, there is heightened speculation that the incoming US administration will take a tougher stance on Iran’s oil exports, compounding the impact of US Treasury sanctions on Tehran. On 19 December, the US expanded sanctions on vessels transporting Iranian crude. The new sanctions on Iran’s shadow fleet now cover vessels that transported an average of over 500 kb/d of Iranian crude in 2024, nearly one-third of the country’s crude exports. While it is too early to fully quantify the potential impact from these new measures, some operators have reportedly already started to pull back from Iranian and Russian oil.

If decreases in supply from weather impacts, sanctions or other developments become substantial, oil stocks can quickly be drawn to meet operational requirements in the near term. Moreover, non-OPEC+ producers are expected to add another 1.5 mb/d of supply in 2025, the same as in 2024, led by the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Canada and Argentina. OPEC+ members have also been looking to unwind extra voluntary production cuts and could ramp up if needed. Those additions should cover both potential supply disruptions and expected demand growth.

Natural gas could be ready for another price spike. EBW Analytics says that, “critical weather shift for natural gas altered the character of January cold, with durable and long-lasting chilly anomalies flipping to an acute Arctic blast and January 20-21st forecast colder than Winter Storm Uri, Elliott or Heather.

Skyrocketing heating demand and deep freeze-offs could send Henry Hub spot prices shooting higher towards double digits. Traders racing to hedge near-term exposure are driving breathtaking immediate-term price volatility.

Eventually, the most-likely scenario suggests that sufficient storage, moderating weather, and rebuilding production could offer downside for gas.

Extreme conditions offer the potential for lasting ruptures, however—and traders may struggle to look past historic cold until evidence of moderating weather and returning production emerges. With freeze-offs possible into late January, confidence in softer prices is higher for the March contract than February.

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